All BPEA articles, papers, reports and commentary dating back to the first edition (published in 1970) are offered here as free downloads in PDF format. When available, the authors’ data and programs are also offered for download. Also available here are The Brookings Papers on Economic Activity: Microeconomics, published from 1989 to 1998. Papers in these journals covered issues of economic performance that confronted public policymakers and executives in the private sector.
Take a look at some of the highlights of the conference from recent years.
Summer 2020
You can find all of the articles here.
- The U.S. labor market during the beginning of the pandemic recession
Tomaz Cajner, Leland D. Crane, Ryan A. Decker, John Grigsby, Adrian Hamins-Puertolas, Erik Hurst, Christopher Kurz, and Ahu Yildirmaz - Initial impacts of the pandemic on consumer behavior: Evidence from linked income, spending, and savings data
Natalie Cox, Peter Ganong, Pascal Noel, Joseph Vavra, Arlene Wong, Diana Farrell, and Fiona Greig - Income and poverty in the COVID-19 pandemic
Jeehoon Han, Bruce D. Meyer, and James X. Sullivan - The social safety net in the wake of COVID-19
Marianne Bitler, Hilary Hoynes, and Diane Schanzenbach - The effects of the coronavirus pandemic in emerging markets and developing economies: An optimistic preliminary account
Pinelopi K. Goldberg and Tristan Reed - Measuring the labor market at the onset of the COVID-19 crisis
Alexander W. Bartik, Marianne Bertrand, Feng Lin, Jesse Rothstein, and Matthew Unrath - Mandated and voluntary social distancing during the COVID-19 epidemic
Sumedha Gupta, Kosali I. Simon, and Coady Wing - COVID-19 is also a reallocation shock
Jose Maria Barrero, Nick Bloom, and Steven J. Davis - Policies for a second wave
David Baqaee, Emmanuel Farhi, Michael J. Mina and James H. Stock - Corporate debt overhang and credit policy
Markus Brunnermeier and Arvind Krishnamurthy
Spring 2020
You can find all of the articles here.
- Declining worker power and American economic performance
Anna Stansbury and Lawrence H. Summers - How tight is the U.S. labor market?
Katharine Abraham, John Haltiwanger, and Lea Rendell - When is growth at risk?
Mikkel Plagborg-Møller, Lucrezia Reichlin, Giovanni Ricco, and Thomas Hasenzagl - Does the U.S. tax code favor automation?
Daron Acemoglu, Andrea Manera, and Pascual Restreppo - What’s up with the Phillips Curve?
Marco Del Negro, Michele Lenza, Giorgio E. Primiceri, and Andrea Tambalotti
Fall 2019
You can find all of the articles here.
- All Medicaid expansions are not created equal: The geography and targeting of the Affordable Care Act
Craig Garthwaite, John Graves, Tal Gross, Zeynal Karaca, Victoria Marone, and Matthew J. Notowidigdo - Policies and payoffs to addressing America’s college graduation deficit
Christopher Avery, Jessica Howell, Matea Pender, and Bruce Sacerdote - The optimal inflation target and the natural rate of interest
Philippe Andrade, Jordi Galí, Hervé Le Bihan, and Julien Matheron - Inflation dynamics: Dead, dormant, or determined abroad?
Kristin J. Forbes - Macri’s macro: The meandering road to stability and growth
Federico Sturzenegger - Progressive wealth taxation
Emmanuel Saez and Gabriel Zucman
Spring 2019
You can find all of the articles here.
- On falling neutral real rates, fiscal policy, and the risk of secular stagnation
Lukasz Rachel and Lawrence H. Summers - A forensic examination of China’s national accounts
Wei Chen, Xilu Chen, Chang-Tai Hsieh, and Zheng (Michael) Song - On the economics of a carbon tax for the United States
Gilbert E. Metcalf - Okun revisited: Who benefits most from a strong economy?
Stephanie Aaronson, Mary C. Daly, William Wascher, and David W. Wilcox - Fiscal space and the aftermath of financial crises: How it matters and why
Christina D. Romer and David H. Romer - A unified approach to measuring u*
Richard K. Crump, Stefano Eusepi, Marc Giannoni, and Aysegul Sahin
Fall 2018
You can find all of the articles here. All data and programs, non-technical discussions, and online appendices can be found on the article landing pages linked below.
- The real effects of the financial crisis
Ben S. Bernanke - Symposium: Monetary policy at the effective lower bound
Kristin J. Forbes, James Hamilton, Eric T. Swanson, and Janet L. Yellen - Should the Fed regularly evaluate its monetary policy framework?
Jeffrey Fuhrer, Giovanni Olivei, Eric Rosengren, and Geoffrey Tootell - The cyclical sensitivity in estimates of potential output
Olivier Coibion, Yuriy Gorodnichenko, and Mauricio Ulate - Accounting for macro-finance trends: Market power, intangibles, and risk premia
Emmanuel Farhi and François Gourio - The first 20 years of the European Central Bank: Monetary policy
Philipp Hartmann and Frank Smets
Spring 2018
You can find all of the articles here. All data and programs, non-technical discussions, and online appendices can be found on the article landing pages linked below.
- Saving the heartland: Place-based policies in 21st Century America
Benjamin Austin, Edward Glaeser, and Lawrence Summers - Is automation labor-displacing? Productivity growth, employment, and the labor share
David Autor and Anna Salomons - Safety net investments in children
Hilary W. Hoynes and Diane Whitmore Schanzenbach - Liquidity crises in the mortgage market
You Suk Kim, Steven M. Laufer, Karen Pence, Richard Stanton, and Nancy Wallace - Mortgage market design: Lessons from the Great recession
Tomasz Piskorski and Amit Seru - Macroeconomic effects of the 2017 tax reform
Robert J. Barro and Jason Furman
Fall 2017
The final published versions of the Fall 2017 papers are available for download. You can find all of the articles here.
- Where Have All the Workers Gone? An Inquiry into the Decline of the U.S. Labor Force Participation Rate
Alan B. Krueger
Comments by Lawrence F. Katz and Matthew J. Notowidigdo
See a non-technical discussion of the paper »
Download the appendix figures » - Investmentless Growth: An Empirical Investigation
Germán Gutiérrez and Thomas Philippon
Comments by Xavier Giroud and Robert E. Hall
See a non-technical discussion of the paper »
Download the online appendix »
Download the data and programs » - The Rise, Fall, and Resurrection of Iceland: A Postmortem Analysis of the 2008 Financial Crisis
Sigríður Benediktsdóttir, Gauti B. Eggertsson, and Eggert Þórarinsson
Comments by Kathryn M. E. Dominguez and Jón Steinsson
See a non-technical discussion of the paper » - The European Trust Crisis and the Rise of Populism
Yann Algan, Sergei Guriev, Elias Papaioannou, and Evgenia Passari
Comments by Catherine E. De Vries, Susan M. Collins, and Francesco Giavazzi
See a non-technical discussion of the paper »
Download the online appendix »
Download the data and programs » - Symposium on Business Tax Reform
- Options for Corporate Tax Reform in 2017
Martin Feldstein - Demystifying the Destination-Based Cash-Flow Tax
Alan J. Auerbach - A Macroeconomic Perspective on Border Taxes
Gita Gopinath - Business Tax Burdens and Tax Reform
James R. Hines Jr. - General Discussion
- See a non-technical discussion of the papers »
- Options for Corporate Tax Reform in 2017
- Strengthening and Streamlining Bank Capital Regulation
Robin Greenwood, Samuel G. Hanson, Jeremy C. Stein, and Adi Sunderam
Comments by Andrew Metrick and Daniel K. Tarullo
See a non-technical discussion of the paper »
Download the online appendix »
Download the data and programs »
Spring 2017
The final published versions of the Spring 2017 papers are available for download. You can find all of the articles here.
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- The Disappointing Recovery of Output after 2009
John G. Fernald, Robert E. Hall, James H. Stock, and Mark W. Watson
Comments by Robert J. Barro and Lucrezia Reichlin
See a non-technical discussion of the paper »
Download the online appendix »
Download the data and programs » - The Rise and Fall of U.S. Low-Skilled Immigration
Gordon Hanson, Chen Liu, and Craig McIntosh
Comments by Adriana Kugler and Edward P. Lazear
See a non-technical discussion of the paper »
Download the data and programs » - Is Europe an Optimal Political Area?
Alberto Alesina, Guido Tabellini, and Francesco Trebbi
Comments by Markus Brunnermeier and Elias Papaioannou
See a non-technical discussion of the paper »
Download the online appendix »
Download the data and programs » - Safety, Liquidity, and the Natural Rate of Interest
Marco Del Negro, Domenico Giannone, Marc P. Giannoni, and Andrea Tambalotti
Comments by John C. Williams and Jing Cynthia Wu
See a non-technical discussion of the paper »
Download the online appendix »
Download the data and programs for replication »
Download the data and programs for the figures and tables » - Monetary Policy in a Low Interest Rate World
Michael T. Kiley and John M. Roberts
Comments by Laurence Ball and Ben Bernanke
See a non-technical discussion of the paper »
Download the data and programs » - Mortality and Morbidity in the 21st Century
Anne Case and Angus Deaton
Comments by David M. Cutler and Adriana Lleras-Muney
See a non-technical discussion of the paper »
Download the online appendix »
Download the appendix figures »
Download the data and programs »
Download the data and programs for the Lleras-Muney comment »
- The Disappointing Recovery of Output after 2009
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Fall 2016
The final published versions of the Fall 2016 papers are available for download.
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- Rules versus Discretion: A Reconsideration
Narayana Kocherlakota
Comments by Alan S. Blinder and Lars E.O. Svensson
See a non-technical discussion of the paper » - Understanding Bank Risk through Market Measures
Natasha Sarin and Lawrence H. Summers
Comments by Jeremy Bulow and Thomas Philippon
See a non-technical discussion of the paper »
Download the online appendix »
Download the data and programs » - The Long Shadow of China’s Fiscal Expansion
Chong-en Bai, Chang-Tai Hsieh, and Zheng (Michael) Song
Comments by Maurice Obstfeld and Linda Tesar
See a non-technical discussion of the paper »
Download the online appendix » - Macroeconomic Effects of Disruptions in Global Food Commodity Markets: Evidence for the United States
Jasmien De Winne and Gert Peersman
Comments by Wolfram Schlenker and Mark W. Watson
See a non-technical discussion of the paper »
Download the online appendix »
Download the data and programs » - Lower Oil Prices and the U.S. Economy: Is This Time Different?
Christiane Baumeister and Lutz Kilian
Comments by James D. Hamilton and Valerie A. Ramey
See a non-technical discussion of the paper »
Download the data and programs » - Symposium on Brexit and the Global Economy
- Rules versus Discretion: A Reconsideration
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Spring 2016
The final published versions of the Spring 2016 papers are available for download.
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- Credit Policy as Fiscal Policy
Deborah Lucas
Comments by Alan J. Auerbach and William G. Gale
See a non-technical discussion of the paper »
Download the the online appendix » - Learning from Potentially Biased Statistics
Alberto Cavallo, Guillermo Cruces and Ricardo Perez-Truglia
Comments by Stefan Nagel and Ricardo Reis
See a non-technical discussion of the paper »
Download the online appendix »
Download the data and programs » - Does the United States Have a Productivity Slowdown or a Measurement Problem?
David M. Byrne, John G. Fernald and Marshall B. Reinsdorf
Comments by Martin Neil Baily and Robert J. Gordon
See a non-technical discussion of the paper »
Download the online appendix » - Understanding Declining Fluidity in the U.S. Labor Market
Raven Molloy, Christopher L. Smith, Riccardo Trezzi and Abigail Wozniak
Comments by Erica L. Groshen and John Haltiwanger
See a non-technical discussion of the paper »
Download the online appendix »
Download the data and programs » - Measuring Income and Wealth at the Top Using Administrative and Survey Data
Jesse Bricker, Alice Henriques, Jacob Krimmel and John Sabelhaus
Comments by Katharine G. Abraham and Wojciech Kopczuk
See a non-technical discussion of the paper »
Download the online appendix »
Download the data and programs » - Income Inequality, Social Mobility, and the Decision to Drop Out of High School
Melissa S. Kearney and Phillip B. Levine
Comments by Miles Corak and Robert A. Moffitt
See a non-technical discussion of the paper »
Download the online appendix »
Download the data and programs »
- Credit Policy as Fiscal Policy
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Fall 2015
The final published versions of the Fall 2015 papers are available for download.
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- A Crisis in Student Loans? How Changes in the Characteristics of Borrowers and in the Institutions They Attended Contributed to Rising Loan Defaults
Adam Looney and Constantine Yannelis
Comments by Caroline Hoxby and Karen Pence
See a non-technical discussion of the paper »
Download the online appendix »
Download the data and programs » - Dynamic Scoring: Why and How to Include Macroeconomic Effects in Budgetary Estimates for Legislative Proposals
Douglas W. Elmendorf
Comments by Glenn Hubbard and Donald Marron
See a non-technical discussion of the paper » - Inflation Targeting Does Not Anchor Inflation Expectations: Evidence from Firms in New Zealand
Saten Kumar, Hassan Afrouzi, Olivier Coibion and Yuriy Gorodnichenko
Comments by Alan S. Blinder and Lars E. O. Svensson
See a non-technical discussion of the paper »
Download the online appendix »
Download the data and programs » - Weather-Adjusting Economic Data
Michael Boldin and Jonathan H. Wright
Comments by Katharine Abraham and Claudia Sahm
See a non-technical discussion of the paper »
Download the data and programs »
- A Crisis in Student Loans? How Changes in the Characteristics of Borrowers and in the Institutions They Attended Contributed to Rising Loan Defaults
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Symposium on the Greek Debt Crisis
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- Greek Debt Sustainability and Official Crisis Lending
Julian Schumacher and Beatrice Weder di Mauro
See a non-technical discussion of the paper »
Download the online appendix »
Download the data and programs » - The Pitfalls of External Independence: Greece, 1829-2015
Carmen M. Reinhart and Christoph Trebesch
See a non-technical discussion of the paper »
Download the online appendix »
Download the data and programs » - Greek Budget Realities: No Easy Option
Christopher L. House and Linda L. Tesar
See a non-technical discussion of the paper »
Download the data and programs » - Is the Greek Debt Crisis One of Supply or Demand?
Yannis M. Ioannides and Christopher A. Pissarides
See a non-technical discussion of the paper »
Download the data and programs » - General Discussion
- Greek Debt Sustainability and Official Crisis Lending
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- Overcoming the Lost Decades? Abenomics after Three Years
Joshua K. Hausman and Johannes F. Wieland
Comment by Adam Posen
See a non-technical discussion of the paper »
Download the online appendix »
Download the data and programs » - Looking for a Success in the Euro Crisis Adjustment Programs: The Case of Portugal
Ricardo Reis
Comment by Kevin H. O’Rourke
See a non-technical discussion of the paper »
Download the data and programs »
- Overcoming the Lost Decades? Abenomics after Three Years
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Spring 2015
The final published versions of the Spring 2015 papers are available for download.
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- Deciphering the Rise and Fall of the Net Capital Share
Matthew Rognlie
Comments by J. Bradford Delong and Robert Solow
See a non-technical discussion of the paper »
Download the online appendix »
Download the data and programs »
- Welfare and Distributional Implications of Shale Gas
Catherine Hausman and Ryan Kellogg
Comments by Steve Cicala and David Lagakos
See a non-technical discussion of the paper »
Download the online appendix »
Download the data and programs »
Download the data and programs for the Cicala comment »
- Risk Management for Monetary Policy Near the Zero Lower Bound
Charles Evans, Jonas Fisher, Francois Gourio, and Spencer Krane
Comments by Alan Greenspan and Johannes Wieland
See a non-technical discussion of the paper »
Download the first online appendix »
Download the second online appendix »
Download the data and programs »
Download the data and programs for the Greenspan comment »
- Economic Analysis and Statistical Disclosure Limitation
John M. Abowd and Ian M. Schmutte
Comments by Caroline Hoxby and Betsey Stevenson
See a non-technical discussion of the paper »
Download the online appendix »
Download the data and programs »
Download the data and programs for the Stevenson comment »
- Grasp the Large, Let Go of the Small: The Transformation of the State Sector in China
Chang-Tai Hsieh and Zheng (Michael) Song
Comments by Loren Brandt and Amit Khandelwal
See a non-technical discussion of the paper »
Download the online appendix »
Download the data and programs »
- Support for Redistribution in an Age of Rising Inequality: New Stylized Facts and Some Tentative Explanations
Vivekinan Ashok, Ilyana Kuziemko, and Ebonya Washington
Comments by Peter K. Enns and Paola Guiliano
See a non-technical discussion of the paper »
Download the online appendix »
Download the data and programs »
- Deciphering the Rise and Fall of the Net Capital Share
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Fall 2014
The final published versions of the Fall 2014 papers are available for download.
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- Why the Geographic Variation in Health Care Spending Cannot Tell Us Much About the Efficiency or Quality of Our Health Care System
Louise Sheiner
Comments by David M. Cutler and Douglas O. Staiger
Download the data and programs »
Download the online appendix » - Efficient Credit Policies in a Housing Debt Crisis
Janice Eberly and Arvind Krishnamurthy
Comments by Austan Goolsbee and Paul Willen - Seesaws and Social Security Benefits Indexing
Matthew Weinzierl
Comments by Martin Feldstein and Aleh Tsyvinski
Download the data and programs » - Labor Force Participation: Recent Developments and Future Prospects
Stephanie Aaronson, Tomaz Cajner, Bruce Fallick, Felix Galbis-Reig, Christopher Smith and William Wascher
Comments by Robert E. Hall and James H. Stock
Download the data and programs »
Download the online appendix » - The Early Impact of the Affordable Care Act, State by State
Amanda E. Kowalski
Comments by M. Kate Bundorf and Amanda Starc
Download the data and programs »
Download the online appendix »
- Why the Geographic Variation in Health Care Spending Cannot Tell Us Much About the Efficiency or Quality of Our Health Care System
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Spring 2014
The final published versions of the Spring 2014 papers are available for download.
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- Abenomics Preliminary Analysis and Outlook
Joshua K. Hausman and Johannes F. Wieland
Comments by Ben Bernanke and Paul Krugman
See a non-technical discussion of the paper »
Download data and programs » - The Wealthy-Hand-to-Mouth
Greg Kaplan, Giovanni Violante and Justin Weidner
Comments by Mark Aguiar and Karen M. Pence
See a non-technical discussion of the paper »
Download data and programs » - Effects of Unconventional Monetary Policy on Financial Institutions
Gabriel Chodorow-Reich
Comments by Deborah Lucas and Annette Vissing-Jorgensen
See a non-technical discussion of the paper »
Download data and programs »
Download the online appendix »
Further Notes on Event Study Standard Errors, November 2014 » - Are the Long-Term Unemployed on the Margins of the Labor Market?
Alan B. Krueger, Judd Cramer and David Cho
Comments by Katharine G. Abraham and Robert Shimer
See a non-technical discussion of the paper »
Download data and programs » - Debt and Incomplete Financial Markets: A Case for Nominal GDP Targeting
Kevin D. Sheedy
Comments by James Bullard and Iván Werning
See a non-technical discussion of the paper » - The Political Economy of Discretionary Spending: Evidence from the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act
Christopher Boone, Arindrajit Dube and Ethan Kaplan
Comments by Peter R. Orszag and Erik Snowberg
See a non-technical discussion of the paper »
Download data and programs »
- Abenomics Preliminary Analysis and Outlook
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Fall 2013
The final versions of the Fall 2013 papers are available for download.
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- The Decline of the U.S. Labor Share
Michael Elsby, Bart Hobijn, Aysegul Sahin
Comments by Susanto Basu and Brent Neiman
Download data and programs » - Unseasonal Seasonals?
Jonathan H. Wright
Comments by James H. Stock; and Richard B. Tiller
Download data and programs » - The Impacts of Expanding Access to High-Quality Preschool Education
Elizabeth Cascio, Diane Whitmore Schanzenbach
Comments by Caroline M. Hoxby and Alan B. Krueger
Download data and programs » - Amerisclerosis? The Puzzle of Rising U.S. Unemployment Persistence
Olivier Coibion, Yuriy Gorodnichenko, Dmitri Koustas
Comments by Edward Glaeser and Paola Sapienza
Download data and programs » - Is This Time Different? The Slowdown in Healthcare Spending
Amitabh Chandra, Jonathan Holmes, Jonathan Skinner
Comments by Katherine Baicker and Douglas Elmendorf
Download data and programs » - Boom, Bust, Recovery Forensics of the Latvia Crisis
Olivier Blanchard, Mark Griffiths, Bertrand Gruss
Comments by Kristin J. Forbes and Paul Krugman
Download data and programs »
- The Decline of the U.S. Labor Share
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Spring 2013
The final versions of the Spring 2013 papers are available for download.
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- The Missing “One-Offs”: The Hidden Supply of High-Achieving, Low-Income Students
Caroline M. Hoxby, Christopher Avery
Comments by Amanda Pallais and Parag A. Pathak - Rising Inequality: Transitory or Persistent? New Evidence from a Panel of U.S. Tax Returns
Jason DeBacker, Bradley Heim, Vasia Panousi, Shanthi Ramnath, Ivan Vidangos
Comments by Greg Kaplan, Lindsay A. Owens, and David B. Grusky
Download data and programs » - The Portuguese Slump and Crash and the Euro Crisis
Ricardo Reis
Comments by Olivier Blanchard and Gita Gopinath - The Minimum Balance at Risk: A Proposal to Mitigate the Systemic Risks Posed by Money Market Funds
Patrick E. McCabe, Marco Cipriani, Michael Holscher, Antoine Martin
Comments by Martin Neil Baily and Samuel G. Hanson
Download data and programs » - Measuring Financial Inclusion: Explaining Variation in Use of Financial Services across and within Countries
Asli Demirguc-Kunt, Leora Klapper
Comments by Pascaline Dupas and Liliana Rojas-Suárez
Download data and programs » - Fifty Years of Family Planning: New Evidence on the Long-Run Effects of Increasing Access to Contraception
Martha J. Bailey
Comments by Raquel Fernández and Amalia R. Miller
Download data and programs »
- The Missing “One-Offs”: The Hidden Supply of High-Achieving, Low-Income Students
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Fall 2012
The papers at the conference, like those at other recent meetings of the Panel, focused on issues raised by the run-up to the Great Recession, the recession itself, and the slow recovery. Download the editors’ summary.
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- Political Polarization and the Dynamics of Political Language: Evidence from 130 Years of Partisan Speech
Jacob Jensen, Ethan Kaplan, Suresh Naidu, and Laurence Wilse-Samson
Comments by David Gergen, Michael Zuckerman, and Arthur Spirling
Download data and programs » - The Ins and Outs of Forecasting Unemployment: Using Labor Force Flows to Forecast the Labor Market
Regis Barnichon and Christopher J. Nekarda
Comments by Jan Hatzius, Sven Jari Stehn, and Barbara Petrongolo
Download data and programs »
Find links to ongoing monthly updates to this paper’s findings » - Winning the War: Poverty from the Great Society to the Great Recession
Bruce D. Meyer and James X. Sullivan
Comments by Hilary W. Hoynes and Erik Hurst
Download the data file part 1 »
Download the data file part 2 »
Download the data file part 3 »
Download the data file part 4 »
Download the data file part 5 »
Download the data file part 6 »
Download the data file part 7 »
Download the data file part 8 »
Download the data file part 9 »
Download the data file part 10 »
Download the data file part 11 »
Download the data file part 12 » - The Reversal of the Employment-Population Ratio in the 2000s: Facts and Explanations
Robert A. Moffitt
Comments by Steven J. Davis and Alexandre Mas
Download data and programs » - What Have They Been Thinking? Homebuyer Behavior in Hot and Cold Markets
Karl E. Case, Robert J. Shiller, and Anne K. Thompson
Comments by David Laibson and Paul Willen
Download data and programs »
Updated version of the paper incorporating results for 2013 and 2014, December 2014 » - Capital Controls: Gates versus Walls
Michael W. Klein
Comments by Kristin J. Forbes and Iván Werning
Download data and programs »
- Political Polarization and the Dynamics of Political Language: Evidence from 130 Years of Partisan Speech
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Spring 2012
The papers in this volume cover the severity of future recessions; the effectiveness of the Federal Reserve’s new communication tools in moving markets; how fiscal stimulus can pay for itself in spurring economic growth; household spending by heavily indebted households in the wake of the housing bust; threats to the future stability of the Eurozone; and the connection between Islam and democracy in the Arab world.
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- Macroeconomic Effects of FOMC Forward Guidance
Jeffrey R. Campbell, Charles L. Evans, Jonas D.M. Fisher and Alejandro Justiniano
Comments by Charles W. Calomiris and Michael Woodford
Download data and programs » - Disentangling the Channels of the 2007-2009 Recession
James Stock and Mark Watson
Comments by Alan S. Blinder and Christopher A. Sims
Download corrected data and programs »
View the erratum » - The Euro’s Three Crises
Jay Shambaugh
Comments by Ricardo Reis and Hélène Rey
Download data and programs » - Fiscal Policy in a Depressed Economy
J. Bradford DeLong and Lawrence Summers
Comments by Martin Feldstein and Valerie A. Ramey - Is a Household Debt Overhang Holding Back Consumption?
Karen Dynan
Comments by Atif Mian and Karen M. Pence
Download data and programs » - Democratic Change in the Arab World, Past and Present
Eric Chaney
Comments by George A. Akerlof and Lisa Blaydes
Download data and programs »
- Macroeconomic Effects of FOMC Forward Guidance
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Fall 2011
The first three papers focus on the labor market. The first demonstrates that unemployment is terribly costly, much more so than conventional models imply. The second undertakes a thorough analysis of small businesses and of their owners’ motivations, showing that, contrary to conventional wisdom, these businesses do not drive either employment growth or innovation. The third finds that the extensions in the duration of unemployment insurance benefits enacted in response to the recent recession are contributing only a very small amount to unemployment. The next two papers study monetary policy. The fourth paper analyzes the various channels through which quantitative easing affects interest rates. The fifth paper discusses practical monetary policy, focusing on the recent experiences of the United States and Sweden.
This volume also marks an innovation in the Brookings Papers, in which the authors of two previous studies revisit their earlier conclusions in light of newly available data. Thus, the sixth paper returns to an earlier study of the performance of the labor market during the Great Recession, and the seventh paper reexamines the case for giving greater attention to an alternative way of measuring GDP. Both papers confirm and extend the findings of the earlier ones.
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- Recessions and the Costs of Job Loss
Steven J. Davis and Till von Wachter
Comments by Robert E. Hall and Richard Rogerson
Download data and programs »
- What Do Small Businesses Do?
Erik Hurst and Benjamin Wild Pugsley
Comments by John Haltiwanger and Adam Looney
Download data and programs »
- Unemployment Insurance and Job Search in the Great Recession
Jesse Rothstein
Comments by Stephanie Aaronson and Lisa B. Kahn
Download part 1 of data and programs »
Download part 2 of data and programs » - The Effects of Quantitative Easing on Interest Rates: Channels and Implications for Policy
Arvind Krishnamurthy and Annette Vissing-Jorgensen
Comments by Simon Gilchrist and Thomas Philippon
Download data and programs »
- Practical Monetary Policy: Examples from Sweden and the United States
Lars E.O. Svensson
Comments by Randall S. Kroszner and David Wessel
Download data and programs »
- The Labor Market in the Great Recession—An Update to September 2011
Michael W. L. Elsby, Bart Hobijn, Aysegül Sahin, Robert G. Valletta
Comments by Betsey Stevenson and Andrew Langan
Download data and programs »
See the original paper » - The Income- and Expenditure-Side Estimates of U.S. Output Growth—An Update to 2011Q2
Jeremy J. Nalewaik
Comments by Steven Braun
See the original paper »
Download data and programs »
- Recessions and the Costs of Job Loss
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Spring 2011
The research in this volume is directly relevant to the economy’s troubles. The first two papers study how people have fared in the recession and its aftermath. The first examines job search and the well-being of the unemployed, and the second studies the financial vulnerability of households and how they cope with emergency spending needs. The remaining four papers contribute to ongoing macroeconomic debates. The third paper analyzes a historical episode of quantitative easing, to better understand how the recent unconventional monetary policy might influence the economy. The fourth paper reexamines the fundamental question of how a government ought to use monetary and fiscal policy to respond to recessions. The fifth paper asks why unemployment rose so much less in Germany during the recession than it did in the United States and elsewhere, and the sixth paper analyzes the behavior of inflation over the past few years in light of competing views of the relationship between inflation and unemployment.
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- Job Search, Emotional Well-Being, and Job Finding in a Period of Mass Unemployment: Evidence from High-Frequency Longitudinal Data
Alan B. Krueger and Andreas Mueller
Comments by Steven J. Davis and Aysegül Sahin
Download data and programs » - Financially Fragile Households: Evidence and Implications
Annamaria Lusardi, Daniel Schneider and Peter Tufano
Comments by Adair Morse and Karen M. Pence
Download data and programs » - Let’s Twist Again: A High-Frequency Event-Study Analysis of Operation Twist and Its Implications for QE2
Eric T. Swanson
Comments by Lucrezia Reichlin and Jonathan H. Wright
Download data and programs » - An Exploration of Optimal Stabilization Policy
N. Gregory Mankiw and Matthew Weinzierl
Comments by Olivier Blanchard and Gauti B. Eggertsson
Download data and programs » - What Explains the German Labor Market Miracle in the Great Recession?
Michael C. Burda and Jennifer Hunt
Comments by Michael W. L. Elsby and John Haltiwanger
Download data and programs » - Inflation Dynamics and the Great Recession
Laurence Ball and Sandeep Mazumder
Comments by Karen Dynan and James H. Stock
Download data and programs »
- Job Search, Emotional Well-Being, and Job Finding in a Period of Mass Unemployment: Evidence from High-Frequency Longitudinal Data
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Fall 2010
Five of the papers in this volume study aspects of the causes and consequences of the Great Recession. These papers examine the effects of the business cycle on the incomes of the very richest Americans; welfare, welfare reform, and poverty during recessions; the failure of modern macroeconomic models to adequately forecast economic conditions; the role of shadow banking in the financial crisis and the appropriate regulatory response; and expenditures by state and local governments over the business cycle. The remaining paper studies the impact of the No Child Left Behind Act, a far-reaching education reform that will shape the skills of the labor force for years to come.
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- The Increase in Income Cyclicality of High-Income Households and Its Relation to the Rise in Top Income Shares
Jonathan A. Parker and Annette Vissing-Jorgensen
Comments by Rebecca M. Blank and Erik Hurst
Download data and programs » - The State of the Social Safety Net in the Post–Welfare Reform Era
Marianne P. Bitler and Hilary W. Hoynes
Comments by Christopher Jencks and Bruce D. Meyer
Download data and programs » - The Impact of No Child Left Behind on Students, Teachers, and Schools
Thomas S. Dee and Brian A. Jacob
Comments by Caroline M. Hoxby and Helen F. Ladd
Download data and programs » - How Useful Are Estimated DSGE Model Forecasts for Central Bankers?
Rochelle M. Edge and Refet S. Gürkaynak
Comments by Ricardo Reis and Christopher A. Sims
Download data and programs » - Regulating the Shadow Banking System
Gary Gorton and Andrew Metrick
Comments by Andrei Shleifer and Daniel K. Tarullo
Download data and programs » - State Fiscal Policies and Transitory Income Fluctuations
James R. Hines Jr.
Comments by William G. Gale and Brian Knight
Download data and programs »
- The Increase in Income Cyclicality of High-Income Households and Its Relation to the Rise in Top Income Shares
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Spring 2010
Three of the papers in this volume assess macroeconomic developments in light of these remarkable events, examining the downturn in the U.S. labor market, the vulnerability of the financial system, and the spread of the crisis to emerging market countries. A fourth paper, which addresses how best to measure GDP, is also highly relevant, showing that an alternative to the most commonly used measure would have yielded a clearer early warning of the size and scope of the U.S. downturn. The two remaining papers compile interesting new data that speak to ongoing longer-term debates about the balance between work and family and about health care reform.
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- The Labor Market in the Great Recession
Michael W. L. Elsby, Bart Hobijn, and Aysegul Sahin
Comments by Lawrence F. Katz and Robert Shimer
Download data and programs »
See the update published in the spring of 2012 » - The Income- and Expenditure-Side Estimates of U.S. Output Growth
Jeremy J. Nalewaik
Comments by Francis X. Diebold and J. Steven Landefield
Download the online appendix »
Download data and programs »
See the update published in the spring of 2012 » - The Rug Rat Race
Garey Ramey and Valerie A. Ramey
Comments by Erik Hurst, Daniel W. Sacks and Betsey Stevenson
Download the online appendix »
Download data and programs » - The Crisis
Alan Greenspan
Comments by N. Gregory Mankiw and Jeremy C. Stein
Download data and programs » - The Initial Impact of the Crisis on Emerging Market Countries
Olivier Blanchard, Hamid Faruqee and Mitali Das
Comments by Kristin J. Forbes and Linda L. Tesar
Download data and programs » - Geographic Variation in Health Care: The Role of Private Markets
Tomas J. Philipson, Seth A. Seabury, Lee M. Lockwood, Dana P. Goldman and Darius N. Lakdawalla
Comments by David M. Cutler
Download the online appendix »
Download data and programs »
- The Labor Market in the Great Recession
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Fall 2009
Papers in this edition considered the zero lower bound on nominal interest rates, consumer financial regulation, unconventional monetary policy, the macroeconomic consequences of fiscal stimulus, and monetary and fiscal policy in the Great Depression.
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- Heeding Daedalus: Optimal Inflation and the Zero Lower Bound
John C. Williams
Comment by Michael Woodford
Download data and programs » - The Age of Reason: Financial Decisions over the Life Cycle and Implications for Regulation
Sumit Agarwal, John C. Driscoll, Xavier Gabaix and David Laibson
Comments by Giovanni Dell’Ariccia and Karen M. Pence
Winner of the 2010 TIAA-CREF Paul A. Samuelson Certificate of Excellence for outstanding research containing ideas that the public and private sectors can use to maintain and improve America’s lifelong financial well being.
Download data and programs » - Interpreting the Unconventional U.S. Monetary Policy of 2007-09
Ricardo Reis
Comments by Timothy Besley and Donald L. Kohn - By How Much Does GDP Rise if the Government Buys More Output?
Robert E. Hall
Comments by Alan J. Auerbach and Christopher L. House
Download the online appendix »
Download data and programs » - When the North Last Headed South: Revisiting the 1930s
Carmen M. Reinhart and Vincent R. Reinhart
Comment by Chang-Tai Hsieh
Download data and programs »
- Heeding Daedalus: Optimal Inflation and the Zero Lower Bound
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Spring 2009
Three of the papers in this volume address the role of various factors in the initial downturn and the ensuing crisis, including the response of policymakers, the behavior of bond markets, and the role played by the oil market. The two remaining papers examine the impact of tax cuts on government spending, and the role of corruption in undermining popular support for market-oriented policies.
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- The Financial Crisis: An Inside View
Phillip Swagel
Comments by René M. Stulz and Luigi Zingales - Understanding Inflation-Indexed Bond Markets
John Y. Campbell, Robert J. Schiller, and Luis M. Viciera
Comments by Frederic S. Mishkin and Jonathan H. Wright
Download data and programs » - Do Tax Cuts Starve the Beast? The Effect of Tax Changes on Government Spending
Christina D. Romer and David H. Romer
Comments by Steven J. Davis and Jeffrey A. Miron
Download data and programs » - Causes and Consequences of the Oil Shock of 2007-08
James D. Hamilton
Comments by Alan S. Binder and Lutz Kilian
Download data and programs » - Why Doesn’t Capitalism Flow to Poor Countries?
Rafael Di Tella and Robert MacCulloch
Comments by George A. Akerlof and Peter J. Klenow
Download data and programs »
- The Financial Crisis: An Inside View
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Fall 2008
Several of the conference papers examine aspects of the current financial crisis: the relationships among recent global financial imbalances, mortgage lending, and volatile commodity prices; the errors made by lenders in judging subprime mortgages and instruments derived from them to have fairly low credit risk; the effect of mortgage foreclosures on the dynamics of home prices; the impact of mortgage credit losses on the supply of credit; and the implications for financial regulation of spillovers from failing financial institutions. The remaining papers deal with the role of the unofficial economy in economic development, and the effect of an undervalued currency on economic growth in developing countries.
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- Financial Crash, Commodity Prices, and Global Imbalances
Ricardo J. Caballero, Emmanuel Farhi, and Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas
Comments by Kathryn M. Dominguez and Carmen M. Reinhart
Download the online appendix »
Download data and programs » - Making Sense of the Subprime Crisis
Kristopher Gerardi, Andreas Lenhert, Shane M. Sherlund, and Paul Willen
Comments by Deborah Lucas and Nicholas S. Souleles - The Central Role of Home Prices in the Current Financial Crisis: How Will the Market Clear?
Karl E. Case
Download data and programs » - Beyond Leveraged Losses: The Balance Sheet Effects of the Home Price Downturn
Jan Hatzius
Download data and programs » - Financial Regulation in a System Context
Stephen Morris and Hyun Song Shin
Comments by Donald L. Kohn and Vincent R. Reinhart - The Unofficial Economy and Economic Development
Rafael La Porta and Andrei Shleifer
Comments by Charles I. Jones and William D. Nordhaus
Download data and programs » - The Real Exchange Rate and Economic Growth
Dani Rodrik
Comments by Peter Blair Henry and Michael Woodford
Download data and programs »
- Financial Crash, Commodity Prices, and Global Imbalances
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Spring 2008
Papers in this edition encompass a range of topics central to macroeconomics and economic policy: the relationship between economic growth and people’s subjective well-being; the effect of international trade on wages; the appropriate role of policies designed to strengthen local economies; macroeconomic crises and asset pricing; the impact of political constraints on the success of economic policy reform; and the behavior of financial markets during the approach of world wars.
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- Economic Growth and Subjective Well-Being: Reassessing the Easterlin Paradox
Betsey Stevenson and Justin Wolfers
Comments by Gary S. Becker and Luis Rayo
Download data and programs » - Trade and Wages, Reconsidered
Paul R. Krugman
Comments by Douglas A. Irwin, Lawrence F. Katz, and Robert Z. Lawrence - The Economics of Place-Making Policies
Edward Glaeser and Joshua D. Gottlieb
Comments by Robert E. Hall and Paul Romer
Download data and programs » - Macroeconomic Crises since 1870
Robert J. Barro and José F. Ursúa
Comments by Olivier J. Blanchard and George M. Constantinides
Download data and programs » - When Does Policy Reform Work?: The Case of Central Bank Independence
Daron Acemoglu, Simon Johnson, Pablo Querubín and James A. Robinson
Comments by Alberto Alesina and David Romer
Download data and programs » - Earning from History? Financial Markets and the Approach of World Wars
Niall Ferguson
Comments by Barry Eichengreen and Hélène Rey
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- Economic Growth and Subjective Well-Being: Reassessing the Easterlin Paradox
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Fall 2007
For the conference papers we asked leading scholars in a number of fields within macroeconomics to summarize the evolution and state of knowledge in their areas or to highlight new perspectives and intellectual challenges. The ten papers in this issue respond admirably to this request, offering provocative views about business cycle dynamics, inflation and unemployment, monetary and fiscal policy, financial markets, international capital flows, earnings inequality, time allocation, and the effect of energy shocks.
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- A Tribute to George Perry and William Brainard
Robert J. Gordon - In Honor of William Brainard and George Perry
Robert E. Hall - How Much Do We Understand about the Modern Recession?
Robert E. Hall - Unfinished Business in the Macroeconomics of Low Inflation: A Tribute to George and Bill by Bill and George
George A. Akerlof and William T. Dickens - What We Still Don’t Know about Monetary and Fiscal Policy
Benjamin M. Friedman - Monetary Policy Models
Christopher A. Sims - Living With Global Imbalances
Richard N. Cooper - Low Interest Rates and High Asset Prices: An Interpretation in Terms of Changing Popular Economic Models
Robert J. Shiller - Long-Run Changes in the Wage structure: Narrowing, Widening, Polarizing
Claudia Goldin and Lawrence F. Katz - Selected Issues in the Rise of Income Inequality
Robert J. Gordon and Ian Dew-Becker - Are We Having More Fun Yet? Categorizing and Evaluating Changes in Time Allocation
Alan B. Krueger - Who’s Afraid of a Big Bad Oil Shock?
William D. Nordhaus
Download data »
- A Tribute to George Perry and William Brainard
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Spring 2007
The five papers in this issue span a range of domestic and global issues of current importance. The first paper uses risk analysis to assess the large foreign reserves holdings of emerging market countries. The second paper models the role of information technology in the rapid productivity growth of the past decade. The third paper examines the relation between foreign capital inflows and growth among nonindustrialized economies. The fourth paper estimates the effects of dividends on consumption and the implied effects of the 2003 dividend tax cuts. The final paper looks for explanations for the failure of long-term rates to respond as expected to the Federal Reserve’s monetary tightening of recent years.
Articles
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- International Reserves in Emerging Market Countries: Too Much of a Good Thing?
Olivier Jeanne
Comments by Joshua Aizenman and Lawrence H. Summers - Explaining a Productive Decade
Stephen D. Oliner, Daniel E. Sichel, and Kevin J. Stiroh
Comments by Martin Neil Baily and N. Gregory Mankiw - Foreign Capital and Economic Growth
Eswar S. Prasad, Raghuram G. Rajan, and Arvind Subramanian
Comments by Susan M. Collins and Peter Blair Henry - The Effect of Dividends on Consumption
Malcolm Baker, Stefan Nagel and Jeffrey Wurgler
Comments by James Poterba and Joel Slemrod
- International Reserves in Emerging Market Countries: Too Much of a Good Thing?
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Report
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- Cracking the Conundrum
David K. Backus and Jonathan H. Wright
Comment by Glenn D. Rudebusch
- Cracking the Conundrum
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Fall 2006
All three papers in this issue explore various aspects of the Chinese economy. Specifically this edition looks at: the recent productivity growth in China and the prospects for China’s economic catch-up with the international productivity frontier; estimating the current rates of return on investment in China to gauge whether the country’s high investment rate is sustainable; and the state of China’s banks and the prospects for successful banking reform.
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- The Sources and Sustainability of China’s Economic Growth
Gary H. Jefferson, Albert G. Z. Hu and Jian Su
Comments by Barry P. Bosworth and Gustav Ranis - The Return to Capital in China
Chong-En Bai, Chang-Tai Hsieh, and Yingyi Qian
Comments by Olivier Blanchard and Richard N. Cooper - The Contradiction in China’s Gradualist Banking Reforms
Wendy Dobson and Anil K. Kashyap
Comments by Nicholas R. Lardy and Lawrence H. Summers
- The Sources and Sustainability of China’s Economic Growth
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Spring 2006
The first paper takes a new approach to assessing the boom in home prices, using a model that parallels the one commonly used to value assets such as stocks. The second analyzes labor force participation and its determinants and projects future labor force growth. The third examines changes in wealth by age group and relates them to changes in law and the economy and to demographic characteristics. The fourth examines the present defined-benefits pension system and considers how to reform its regulation and insurance by the federal government.
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- Bubble, Bubble, Where’s the Housing Bubble?
Margaret Hwang Smith and Gary Smith
Comments by Christopher Mayer and Robert J. Shiller - The Recent Decline in the Labor Force Participation Rate and Its Implications for Potential Labor Supply
Stephanie Aaronson, Bruce Fallick, Andrew Figura, Jonathan Pingle, and William Wascher
Comments by Gary Burtless and Lawrence F. Katz - Are Successive Generations Getting Wealthier, and If So, Why? Evidence from the 1990s
William G. Gale and Karen M. Pence
Comments by Alan S. Blinder and John Sabelhaus - Reforming the Defined-Benefit Pension System
David W. Wilcox
Comments by Jeffrey R. Brown and Douglas Holtz-Eakin
- Bubble, Bubble, Where’s the Housing Bubble?
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2005 No. 2
Papers in this edition examine some possible drawbacks to greater transparency by central banks, analyze the change in the income distribution that has accompanied the productivity surge of the past decade, study how workers respond to information about risk in their retirement accounts, look at the long-run interactions between energy needs and the environment, and question the widespread preference for the payroll data over the household data as a measure of monthly employment gains.
Articles
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- Central Bank Transparency and the Signal Value of Prices
Stephen Morris and Hyun Song Shin
Comments by Benjamin M. Friedman and Christopher A. Sims - Where Did the Productivity Growth Go? Inflation Dynamics and the Distribution of Income
Ian Dew-Becker and Robert J. Gordon
Comments by Daniel E. Sichel and Robert Topel - Are Empowerment and Education Enough? Underdiversification in 401(l) Plans
James J. Choi, David Laibson, and Brigitte C. Madrian
Comments by William G. Gale and Nellie Liang - A Robust Strategy for Sustainable Energy
Klaus S. Lackner and Jeffrey D. Sachs
Comments by Richard N. Cooper and William A. Pizer
- Central Bank Transparency and the Signal Value of Prices
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Report
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- Gauging Employment: Is the Professional Wisdom Wrong?
George L. Perry
Comment by William Wascher
- Gauging Employment: Is the Professional Wisdom Wrong?
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2005 No. 1
The first paper examines some possible drawbacks to greater transparency by central banks. The second analyzes the change in the income distribution that has accompanied the productivity surge of the past decade. The third studies how workers respond to information about risk in their retirement accounts. The fourth looks at the long-run interactions between energy needs and the environment. The issue concludes with a report that questions the widespread preference for the payroll data over the household data as a measure of monthly employment gains.
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- International Investors, the U.S. Current Account, and the Dollar
Olivier Blanchard, Francesco Giavazzi, and Filipa Sa
Comments by Ben S. Bernanke and Hélène Rey - Global Current Account Imbalances and Exchange Rate Adjustments
Maurice Obstfeld and Kenneth S. Rogoff
Comments by Richard N. Cooper and T.N. Srinivasan - Is it 1958 or 1968? Three Notes on Longevity of the Revived Bretton Woods System
Michael Dooley and Peter Garber
Comments by Barry Eichengreen and Jeffrey A. Frankel - Is the U.S. Current Account Deficit Sustainable? If Not, How Costly Is Adjustment Likely to Be?
Sebastian Edwards
Comments by Kathryn M.E. Dominguez and Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas - Asset Returns and Economic Growth
Dean Baker, J. Bradford Delong, and Paul R. Krugman
Comments by N. Gregory Mankiw and William D. Nordhaus
- International Investors, the U.S. Current Account, and the Dollar
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2004 No. 2
The first paper evaluates unconventional measures available to monetary policymakers for stimulating the economy when interest rates are already near zero, a situation that may arise with price stability or negative inflation. The second paper presents empirical evidence on the effects of taxes, federal spending, and deficits on national saving, interest rates, and growth. The third paper explores the impacts on U.S. employment in recent years from conventional foreign trade in goods and from the rise in offshoring of service jobs. The fourth paper examines the effect of tax changes, such as those passed since 2000, on business capital formation.
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- Monetary Policy Alternatives at the Zero Bound: An Empirical Assessment
Ben S. Bernanke, Vincent R. Reinhart, and Brian P. Sack
Comments by Benjamin M. Friedman and Lars E. O. Svensson - Budget Deficits, National Saving, and Interest Rates
William G. Gale and Peter R. Orszag
Comments by Eric M. Engen and Christopher L. House - What Happened to the Great U.S. Job Machine? The Role of Trade and Electronic Offshoring
Martin Neil Baily and Robert Z. Lawrence
Comments by Frank Levy and Daniel E. Sichel - Investment, Overhang, and Tax Policy
Mihir A. Desai and Austan D. Gooslbee
Comments by Kevin A. Hassett and John V. Leahy
- Monetary Policy Alternatives at the Zero Bound: An Empirical Assessment
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2004 No. 1
The first paper analyzes the experience of single mothers since the welfare reforms of the mid-1990s. The second paper offers a diagnosis of the persistence of poverty in sub-Saharan Africa and outlines a long-run program of assistance to promote sustained development. The third paper models the relationship between long-run demographic swings and long-run returns to equities. The fourth paper reports on a survey of Americans’ opinions on, and knowledge about, economic policy issues and assesses how self-interest, political ideology, and other factors relate to those opinions.
Articles
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- Assessing the Impact of Welfare Reform on Single Mothers
Hanming Fang and Michael P. Keane
Comments by Rebecca M. Blank and Jeffrey Grogger - Ending Africa’s Poverty Trap
Jeffrey D. Sachs, John W. McArthur, Guido Schmidt-Traub, Margaret Kruk, Chandrika Bahadur, Michael Faye and Gordon McCord
Comments by Michael Kremer and Stephen A. O’Connell - Demography and the Long-Run Predictability of the Stock Market
John Geanakoplos, Michael Magill, and Martine Quinzii
Comments by Robin Brooks and Owen Lamont
- Assessing the Impact of Welfare Reform on Single Mothers
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Report
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- What Does the Public Know About Economic Policy, and How Does It Know It?
Alan S. Blinder and Alan B. Krueger
Comment by William D. Nordhaus
- What Does the Public Know About Economic Policy, and How Does It Know It?
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2003 No. 2
The first paper examines the Mexican economy since Mexico liberalized its financial markets and concludes that its disappointing performance is due, in important part, to inadequate domestic reforms. The second paper takes a fresh look at understanding the factors behind economic growth over the past forty years, using the experience of eighty-four countries at various stages of development. The third paper looks at how the U.S. productivity surge since the mid-1990s affects our understanding of productivity trends and cycles, and how this might inform future projections. The fourth paper looks for evidence of a bubble in current housing prices.
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- Liberalization, Growth, and Financial Crises: Lessons from Mexico and the Developing World
Aaron Tornell, Frank Westermann, and Lorenza Martínez
Comments by Timothy J. Kehoe and Alejandro Werner - The Empirics of Growth: An Update
Barry P. Bosworth and Susan M. Collins
Comments by Steven N. Durlauf and Jeffrey A. Frankel - Exploding Productivity Growth: Context, Causes, and Implications
Robert J. Gordon
Comments by Martin Neil Baily and Daniel E. Sichel - Is There a Bubble in the Housing Market?
Karl E. Case and Robert J. Shiller
Comments by Christopher Mayer and John M. Quigley
- Liberalization, Growth, and Financial Crises: Lessons from Mexico and the Developing World
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2003 No. 1
The first paper explores why some emerging market economies are prone to fall into financial crisis at levels of external indebtedness that more advanced economies seem able to manage. The second paper reviews the current U.S. fiscal situation against the historical record. The third paper offers a theoretical analysis of optimal monetary policy in the face of a liquidity trap, with a focus on the importance of expectations. The fourth paper discusses a new methodological approach to economic policymaking under uncertainty, with particular attention to uncertainty about economic models. The concluding report analyzes whether new rules for corporate pension accounting promulgated in the 1980s misled investors into overvaluing the stocks of firms with pension plans during the 1990s market boom.
Articles
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- Debt Intolerance
Carmen M. Reinhart, Kenneth S. Rogoff, and Miguel A. Savastano
Comments by Christopher A. Sims and John Williamson - Fiscal Policy, Past and Present
Alan J. Auerbach
Comments by William G. Gale and William D. Nordhaus - The Zero Bound on Interest Rates and Optimal Monetary Policy
Gauti B. Eggertsson and Michael Woodford
Comments by Benjamin M. Friedman and Mark Gertler - Policy Evaluation in Uncertain Economic Environments
William A. Brock, Steven N. Durlauf, and Kenneth D. West
Comments by Eric M. Leeper and Thomas J. Sargent
- Debt Intolerance
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Report
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- Did Pension Plan Accounting Contribute to a Stock Market Bubble?
Julia Lynn Coronado and Steven A. Sharpe
Comment by Mark J. Warshawsky
- Did Pension Plan Accounting Contribute to a Stock Market Bubble?
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2002 No. 2
The first paper reviews the process and methods of inflation and output forecasting at four central banks and proposes strategies for improving the usefulness of their formal economic models for policymaking. The second paper analyzes the implications for monetary policymaking of uncertainty about the levels of the natural rates of unemployment and interest. The third paper examines reasons for the recent rise in current account deficits in the lower-income countries of Europe and the role of economic integration in breaking the link between domestic saving and domestic investment. The fourth paper applies a new decomposition of productivity growth to a new database of income-side output to examine the recent speedup in U.S. productivity growth and the contribution made by new economy industries.
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- The Role of Models and Probabilities in the Monetary Policy Process
Christopher A. Sims
Comments by Steven N. Durlauf and Jeffrey C. Fuhrer - Robust Monetary Policy Rules with Unknown Natural Rates
Athanasios Orphanides and John C. Williams
Comments by Jonathan A. Parker and Janet L. Yellen - Current Account Deficits in the Euro Area: The End of the Feldstein-Horioka Puzzle?
Olivier Blanchard and Francesco Giavazzi
Comments by Willem H. Buiter and Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas - Productivity Growth and the New Economy
William D. Nordhaus
Comments by Robert J. Gordon and Daniel E. Sichel
- The Role of Models and Probabilities in the Monetary Policy Process
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2002 No. 1
The first paper investigates the origins and features of the economic boom in Ireland during the 1990s, including the country’s rapid employment growth and apparent productivity miracle. The second paper analyzes changes in male unemployment and labor force participation in the United States over the last four decades. The third paper studies the interaction of firms’ investments in information technology with their investments in intangible assets such as organizational structure, and the effect of these joint investments on firms’ market value. A report in this issue assesses the recent U.S. recession and its ongoing recovery, reevaluates the current system for identifying recessions, and considers the outlook for corporate profits and equities markets. The issue concludes with a symposium on new international arrangements for distressed sovereign debtors.
Article
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- Catching Up With the Leaders: The Irish Hare
Patrick Honohan and Brendan Walsh
Comments by Olivier Blanchard and Barry Bosworth
- Catching Up With the Leaders: The Irish Hare
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Reports
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- Current Unemployment, Historically Contemplated
Chinhui Juhn, Kevin M. Murphy and Robert H. Topel
Comments by Lawrence F. Katz and Robert Shiner - Tax Smoothing Implications of the Federal Debt Program
George J. Hall and Stefan Krieger
Comments by Benjamin M. Friedman and Mark Gertler - Local Corruption and Global Capital Flows
Shang-Jin Wei
Comments by Andrei Shleifer
- Current Unemployment, Historically Contemplated
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Symposium on New Bankruptcy Arrangements for Sovereign Debt
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- Intangible Assets: Computers and Organizational Capital
Erik Brynjolfsson, Lorin M. Hitt, and Shinkyu Yang
Comments by Martin Neil Baily and Robert E. Hall - The Recent Recession, the Current Recovery and Stock Prices
William D. Nordhaus
Comment by George L. Perry - First World Governments and Third World Debt
Jeremy Bulow - Resolving the Debt Crisis of Low-Income Countries
Jeffrey D. Sachs - Sovereigns in Distress: Do They Need Bankruptcy?
Michelle J. White
- Intangible Assets: Computers and Organizational Capital
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Discussion Papers
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- Do We Need a New Bankruptcy Regime?
Nouriel Roubini - How Would a New Bankruptcy Regime Help?
Hal S. Scott - Debt Restructuring: Evolution or Revolution?
Edwin M. Truman
- Do We Need a New Bankruptcy Regime?
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2001 No. 2
The first paper revisits the economy of the former East Germany ten years after reunification, seeking to explain why its convergence toward western German economic performance has stalled. The second paper reviews macroeconomic policymaking in Japan to determine whether the stagnant Japanese economy has responded to policy stimulus as conventional models would predict. The third paper tests alternative explanations of the greater generosity of social welfare systems in Europe than in the United States. And the concluding paper attempts to reconcile the observed high return on equities with reasonable levels of risk aversion on the part of individuals.
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- From Reunification to Economic Integration: Productivity and the Labor Market in Eastern Germany
Michael C. Burda and Jennifer Hunt
Comments by Holger Wolf and Janet L. Yellen - The Great Recession: Lessons for Macroeconomic Policy from Japan
Kenneth N. Kuttner and Adam S. Posen
Comments by Stanley Fischer and John Makin - Why Doesn’t the United States Have a European-Style Welfare State?
Alberto Alesina, Edward Glaeser, and Bruce Sacerdote
Comments by Steven N. Durlauf and Frank Levy - The Consumption Risk of the Stock Market
Jonathan A. Parker
Comments by N. Gregory Mankiw and Paul Willen
- From Reunification to Economic Integration: Productivity and the Labor Market in Eastern Germany
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2001 No. 1
The first paper examines the causes of and international response to the Russian financial crisis of 1998 and. The second paper studies the effect of interstate wage differences on the location decisions of immigrants and estimates the resulting gains in macroeconomic efficiency. The first report analyzes whether the decreased frequency of recessions in the past two decades can be attributed to a secular decline in the variability of quarter-to-quarter changes in output. The second report examines the usefulness of the Index of Consumer Sentiment as a tool for forecasting recessions. The issue concludes with a symposium of three papers on the sustainability of the recent large current account deficits in the U.S. balance of payments.
Articles
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- An Analysis of Russia’s 1998 Meltdown Fundamentals and Market Signals
Homi Kharas, Brian Pinto, and Sergei Ulatov
Comments by Lawrence H. Summers and John Williamson - Does Immigration Grease the Wheels of the Labor Market?
George J. Borjas
Comments by Robert Shimer and Robert H. Topel
- An Analysis of Russia’s 1998 Meltdown Fundamentals and Market Signals
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Reports
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- The Long and Large Decline in U.S. Output Volatility
Olivier Blanchard and Jon Simon
Comment by Benjamin M. Friedman - The Predictive Power of the Index of Consumer Sentiment
E. Philip Howrey
Comment by Michael C. Lovell
- The Long and Large Decline in U.S. Output Volatility
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Symposium on the U.S. Current Account
2000 No. 2
The first paper analyzes the effects on national saving of alternative proposals for Social Security reform. The second paper proposes that the sharp rise in the stock market in recent years reflects increases in intangible and unobserved “e-capital.” The third paper reviews recent developments in real estate markets and assesses the risk of a crisis in the sector. The next three papers address various implications of the unexpected emergence of federal budget surpluses and the consequences of sharply declining government debt. Finally, the seventh paper in this issue examines to what extent official corruption inhibits foreign direct investment in developing countries.
Articles
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- Social Security Reform and National Saving in an Era of Budget Surpluses
Douglas W. Elmendorf and Jeffrey B. Liebman
Comments by Matthew D. Shapiro and Stephen P. Zeldes - E-Capital: The Link between the Stock Market and the Labor Market in the 1990s
Robert E. Hall
Comments by Jason G. Cummins and Owen A. Lamont - Real Estate and the Macroeconomy
Karl E. Case
Comments by Edward L. Glaeser and Jonathan A. Parker
- Social Security Reform and National Saving in an Era of Budget Surpluses
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Reports
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- The Economic Consequences of Disappearing Government Debt
Vincent Reinhart and Brian Sack
Comment by John Heaton - Financial Market Implications of the Federal Debt Paydown
Michael J. Fleming
Comments by Benjamin Friedman and Mark Gertler
- The Economic Consequences of Disappearing Government Debt
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2000 No. 1
The first paper presents and tests a new model of inflation that rejects the conventional theory of a natural rate of unemployment. The second paper examines “new economy” explanations for the recent spectacular rise in stock prices. The third paper applies growth accounting methods to recently revised official U.S. productivity data to analyze the sources of the recent surge in productivity. The fourth paper investigates the possibility of a link between share prices and unemployment across a sample of industrial countries whose unemployment rates diverged during the 1990s.
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- Near-Rational Wage and Price Setting and the Long-Run Phillips Curve
George A. Akerlof, William T. Dickens, and George L. Perry
Comments by Truman F. Bewley and Alan S. Blinder - The Stock Market and Investment in the New Economy: Some Tangible Facts and Intangible Fictions
Stephen R. Bond and Jason G. Cummins
Comments by Janice Eberly and Robert J. Shiller - Raising the Speed Limit: U.S. Economic Growth in the Information Age
Dale W. Jorgenson and Kevin J. Stiroh
Comments by Robert J. Gordon and Daniel E. Sichel - Roots of the Recent Recoveries: Labor Reforms or Private Sector Forces?
Jean-Paul Fitoussi, David Jestaz, Edmund S. Phelps, and Gylfi Zoega
Comments by Olivier Blanchard and Christopher A. Sims
- Near-Rational Wage and Price Setting and the Long-Run Phillips Curve
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1999 No. 2
The first paper uses a number of historical tax reforms to examine the response of taxable income to tax rates. The second paper asks whether today’s working households are saving enough for retirement. The third paper argues that Europe’s persistently high unemployment primarily reflects a rise in the noninflationary unemployment rate caused by prolonged tight monetary policy. The fourth paper reviews the nineteenth-century history of international financial crises. The issue concludes with a report on the first months of the European Monetary Union.
Articles
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- Evidence on the High-Income Laffer Curve from Six Decades of Tax Reform
Austan Goolsbee
Comments by Robert E. Hall and Lawrence F. Katz - The Adequacy of Retirement Saving
Eric M. Engen, William G. Gale, and Cori R. Uccello
Comments by Christopher D. Carroll and David I. Laibson - Aggregate Demand and Long-Run Unemployment
Laurence Ball
Comments by N. Gregory Mankiw, William D. Nordhaus - Financial Crises in the 1890s and the 1990s: Must History Repeat?
J. Bradford DeLong
Comments by Richard N. Cooper and Benjamin M. Friedman
- Evidence on the High-Income Laffer Curve from Six Decades of Tax Reform
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Report
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- Stability, Asymmetry, and Discontinuity: The Launch of the European Monetary Union
Giancarlo Corsetti and Paolo Pesenti
Comments by Alan S. Blinder
- Stability, Asymmetry, and Discontinuity: The Launch of the European Monetary Union
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1999 No. 1
The first paper undertakes an eclectic analysis of trends and developments in the U.S. labor market. The second paper inquires whether economists and policymakers should reconsider their endorsement of capital account liberalization. The first report examines what contribution foreign capital inflows make to developing economies. The second report provides some new perspectives on the supposedly anemic U.S. saving rate. The concluding report asks whether a bout of deflation may now be in our future.
Articles
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- The High-Pressure U.S. Labor Market of the 1990s
Lawrence F. Katz and Alan B. Krueger
Comments by Gary Burtless and William T. Dickens - Should Capital Controls be Banished?
Richard N. Cooper
Comments by Daniel K. Tarullo and John Williamson
- The High-Pressure U.S. Labor Market of the 1990s
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Reports
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- Capital Flows to Developing Economies: Implications for Saving and Investment
Barry P. Bosworth and Susan M. Collins
Comment by Carmen M. Reinhart - Perspectives on the Household Saving Rate
William G. Gale and John Sabelhaus
Comment by Robert E. Hall - Should We Fear Deflation?
J. Bradford DeLong
Comment by Christopher A. Sims
- Capital Flows to Developing Economies: Implications for Saving and Investment
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1998: Microeconomics
Three of the papers study the economic and legal impacts of liability laws. The other four papers consider a broad range of economic and policy issues.
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- Product and Stock Market Responses to Automotive Product Liability Verdicts
Steven Garber, John Adams, Sam Peltzman, Daniel L. Rubinfeld - The Distribution of the Insurance Market Effects of Tort Liability Reforms
Patricia H. Born, W. Kip Viscusi, Dennis W. Carlton - The Link between Liability Reforms and Productivity: Some Empirical Evidence
Thomas J. Campbell, Daniel P. Kessler, George B. Shepherd, Alvin K. Klevorick - What Drives Venture Capital Fundraising?
Paul A. Gompers, Josh Lerner, Margaret M. Blair, Thomas Hellmann - Capital’s Contribution to Productivity and the Nature of Competition
Axel Börsch-Supan, Paul Romer - Extending the East Asian Miracle: Microeconomic Evidence from Korea
Martin Neil Baily, Eric Zitzewitz, Barry Bosworth, Larry E. Westphal - The Tobacco Deal
Jeremy Bulow, Paul Klemperer
- Product and Stock Market Responses to Automotive Product Liability Verdicts
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1998 No. 2
The first paper analyzes the East Asian currency crisis, examining its predictability and causes, and evaluating the policy responses that were made. The second provides a modern version of the Keynesian liquidity trap as an explanation of Japan’s deepening recession and offers an unorthodox policy prescription: promised inflation. The third paper examines the roles played by demographics and tropical geography in perpetuating poverty in Africa. The first report reviews the performance of conventional models of inflation during the recent period of outstanding macroeconomic performance in the U.S. economy. And the concluding report examines Japan’s current banking problem, tracing its origins to the postwar evolution of the Japanese economic and financial systems.
Articles
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- Economic Crises: Evidence and Insights from East Asia
Jason Furman, Joseph E. Stiglitz, Barry P. Bosworth, Steven Radelet - It’s Baaack: Japan’s Slump and the Return of the Liquidity Trap
Paul R. Krugman, Kathryn M. Dominquez, Kenneth Rogoff - Geography, Demography, and Economic Growth in Africa
David E. Bloom, Jeffrey D. Sachs, Paul Collier, Christopher Udry
- Economic Crises: Evidence and Insights from East Asia
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Reports
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- Foundations of the Goldilocks Economy: Supply Shocks and the Time-Varying NAIRU
Robert J. Gordon, James H. Stock - Japan’s Financial Problems
Edward J. Lincoln, Benjamin M. Friedman
- Foundations of the Goldilocks Economy: Supply Shocks and the Time-Varying NAIRU
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1998 No. 1
The first paper analyses the causes and the treatment of the recent financial crisis in East Asia, focusing in particular on the International Monetary Fund’s interventions, in order to develop guidelines for new international workout arrangements that would prevent or swiftly resolve future financial crises. The second presents a new model of saving over the life cycle and uses it to examine the effect of instruments that commit savers, such as defined contribution pension plans with penalties for early withdrawal. The third paper challenges the notion that deficit-reducing reforms are politically costly, and relates the “success” of such programs to the composition of the fiscal changes. Using household survey data, the first report depicts patterns of wealth holding and wealth accumulation among American families since the mid- 1980s, analyzing the roles of different forms of saving in the accumulation of wealth. The concluding report examines the effects of hours reductions on employment and wages, and considers the motivation behind pressure for work-sharing arrangements in Germany.
Articles
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- The East Asian Financial Crisis: Diagnosis, Remedies, Prospects
Steven Radelet, Jeffrey D. Sachs, Richard N. Cooper, Barry P. Bosworth - Self-Control and Saving for Retirement
David I. Laibson, Andrea Repetto, Jeremy Tobacman, Robert E. Hall, William G. Gale, George A. Akerlof - The Political Economy of Fiscal Adjustments
Alberto Alesina, Roberto Perotti, José Tavares, Maurice Obstfeld, Barry Eichengreen
- The East Asian Financial Crisis: Diagnosis, Remedies, Prospects
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Reports
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- The Wealth Dynamics of American Families
Erik Hurst, Ming Ching Luoh, Frank P. Stafford, William G. Gale - Hours Reductions as Work-Sharing
Jennifer Hunt, Lawrence F. Katz
- The Wealth Dynamics of American Families
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1997: Microeconomics
The five papers in this volume address economic and policy issues in telecommunications, labor turnover, health care, and antitrust law.
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- Valuing the Effect of Regulation on New Services in Telecommunications
Jerry A. Hausman
Comments by Ariel Pakes, Gregory L. Rosston - The Changing Face of Job Loss in the United States, 1981-1995
Henry S. Farber
Comments by John Haltiwanger, Katharine G. Abraham - Health Care Productivity
Martin Neil Baily, Alan M. Garber
Comments by Ernst R. Berndt, David M. Cutler - Measuring the Health of the U.S. Population
David M. Cutler, Elizabeth Richardson
Comments by Theodore E. Keeler, Douglas Staiger - Antitrust Issues in the Licensing of Intellectual Property: The Nine No-No’s Meet the Nineties
Richard Gilbert, Carl Shapiro
Comments by Louis Kaplow, Robert Gertner
- Valuing the Effect of Regulation on New Services in Telecommunications
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1997 No. 2
The first paper examines the economic implications of alternative proposals for reforming the U.S. social security system. The second analyzes the large increases in both unemployment rates and capital shares in continental Europe. The third paper models how government policies have given rise to large unofficial sectors in some transition economies of central and eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union. And the fourth assesses the gains and costs likely to flow from European monetary union.
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- Macroeconomic Aspects of Social Security Reform
Peter A. Diamond, Alan J. Auerbach, William G. Gale - The Medium Run
Olivier J. Blanchard, William D. Nordhaus, Edmund S. Phelps - The Unofficial Economy in Transition
Simon Johnson, Daniel Kaufmann, Andrei Shleifer, Marshall I. Goldman, Martin L. Weitzman - Europe’s Gamble
Maurice Obstfeld, Alberto Alesina, Richard N. Cooper
- Macroeconomic Aspects of Social Security Reform
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1997 No. 1
In light of the great increase in U.S. immigration and trade since the 1960, the first paper estimates the impacts of these two factors on the labor market outcomes of U.S. natives. The second paper examines the effects of systematic monetary policy on the economy, disentangling these effects from the effects of other shocks, such as OPEC oil price increases. The third considers public resistance to the indexation of long-term contracts, using survey data from the United States and from Turkey-a country with high and variable inflation. The fourth examines to what extent and by what means families are able to smooth year-to-year variation in the earnings of the household head. The fifth paper addresses recent criticisms of the procedures used by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in accounting for quality change in the Consumer Price Index. And the sixth assesses the performance and prospects of Brazil’s stabilization and economic reform under the Real Plan.
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- How Much Do Immigration and Trade Affect Labor Market Outcomes?
George J. Borjas, Richard B. Freeman, Lawrence F. Katz, John DiNardo, John M. Abowd - Systematic Monetary Policy and the Effects of Oil Price Shocks
Ben S. Bernanke, Mark Gertler, Mark Watson, Christopher A. Sims, Benjamin M. Friedman - Public Resistance to Indexation: A Puzzle
Robert J. Shiller, Charles L. Schultze, Robert E. Hall - Can Families Smooth Variable Earnings?
Susan Dynarski, Jonathan Gruber, Robert A. Moffitt, Gary Burtless - Addressing the Quality Change Issue in the Consumer Price Index
Brent R. Moulton, Karin E. Moses, Robert J. Gordon, Barry P. Bosworth - Brazil’s Incomplete Stabilization and Reform
Rudiger Dornbusch, William R. Cline
- How Much Do Immigration and Trade Affect Labor Market Outcomes?
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1996: Microeconomics
The papers address economic and policy issues in five different industries. Bresnahan and Greenstein examine the migration of corporate computer users from massive mainframes to distributed computing platforms. Berndt, Cockburn, and Griliches explore the measurement of drug prices, in particular the prices of drugs used to treat depression. The other papers examine similar industry-level issues. Steven A. Morrison and Clifford Winston identify the causes and consequences of airline fare wars in the United States. Matthew White identifies factors that are likely to shape the deregulated markets for electricity generation. Frank Wolak projects how future changes in local and long-distance telephone call rates will affect consumer welfare.
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- Technical Progress and Co-Invention in Computing and in the Uses of Computers
Timothy Bresnahan, Shane Greenstein, David Brownstone, Ken Flamm - Causes and Consequences of Airline Fare Wars
Steven A. Morrison, Clifford Winston, Elizabeth E. Bailey, Dennis W. Carlton - Pharmaceutical Innovations and Market Dynamics: Tracking Effects on Price Indexes for Antidepressant Drugs
Ernst R. Berndt, Iain M. Cockburn, Zvi Griliches, Theodore E. Keeler, Martin Neil Baily - Power Struggles: Explaining Deregulatory Reforms in Electricity Markets
Matthew W. White, Paul L. Joskow, Jerry Hausman - The Welfare Impacts of Competitive Telecommunications Supply: A Household-Level Analysis
Frank A. Wolak, Gerald R. Faulhaber, Ariel Pakes
- Technical Progress and Co-Invention in Computing and in the Uses of Computers
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1996 No. 2
The first paper employs advanced statistical technique to analyze the importance of monetary policy and the mechanisms by which it affects the economy. The second demonstrates the importance of variations in the workweek of capital in the business cycle. These papers are followed by a symposium on the economies of the Pacific Rim. The first symposium paper revisits the debate on the relative importance of total factor productivity and capital accumulation in explaining rapid economic growth in East Asia. The second considers Japan’s experience, both with successful growth and, ultimately, with its financial bubble and recent stagnation. The third examines China’s economic development over the past two decades and its prospects for the future. Three extended comments offer observations about past and prospective growth in the region and elsewhere.
Articles
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- What Does Monetary Policy Do?
Eric M. Leeper, Christopher A. Sims, Tao Zha, Robert E. Hall, Ben S. Bernanke - Macroeconomic Implications of Variation in the Workweek of Capital
Matthew D. Shapiro, Carol Corrado, Peter K. Clark
- What Does Monetary Policy Do?
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Symposium on the Economies of the Pacific Rim
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- Economic Growth in East Asia: Accumulation versus Assimilation
Susan M. Collins, Barry P. Bosworth, Dani Rodrik - Japan and the Asian Economies: A “Miracle” in Transition
Takatoshi Ito, David E. Weinstein - China’s Emergence and Prospects as a Trading Nation
Barry Naughton, Nicholas R. Lardy
- Economic Growth in East Asia: Accumulation versus Assimilation
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Observations
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- Lessons from East Asia and the Pacific Rim
Stanley Fischer - Some Missing Elements
Edward J. Lincoln - East Asian Liberalization, Bubbles, and the Challenge from China
Yung Chul Park
- Lessons from East Asia and the Pacific Rim
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1996 No. 1
The first article rejects the concept of a natural unemployment rate by examining the effects of downward wage rigidity, and calls into question policies that would target zero inflation. The second considers the Federal Reserve’s experience with money targets and the lessons for rules versus discretion and appropriate targets for U.S. monetary policymaking. The third article examines the Tequila effect of the December 1994 Mexican peso crisis in a sample of developing countries and analyzes the factors that make a country vulnerable to financial crisis. The fourth reviews the evidence from the previously communist-controlled countries of central Europe and the former Soviet Union to show that radical programs of liberalization and price stabilization have been more successful than gradual reforms, in both economic and political terms. And the final article traces the postwar decline in national saving to a redistribution of resources from younger to older generations and a significant increase in the consumption propensities of the elderly.
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- The Macroeconomics of Low Inflation
George A. Akerlof, William T. Dickens, George L. Perry, Robert J. Gordon, N. Gregory Mankiw - A Price Target for U.S. Monetary Policy? Lessons from the Experience with Money Growth Targets
Benjamin M. Friedman, Kenneth N. Kuttner, Mark Gertler, James Tobin - Financial Crises in Emerging Markets: The Lessons from 1995
Jeffrey D. Sachs, Aaron Tornell, Andrés Velasco, Guillermo A. Calvo, Richard N. Cooper - How to Stabilize: Lessons from Post-Communist Countries
Andres Åslund, Peter Boone, Simon Johnson, Stanley Fischer, Barry W. Ickes - Understanding the Postwar Decline in U.S. Saving: A Cohort Analysis
Jagadeesh Gokhale, Laurence J. Kotlikoff, John Sabelhaus, Barry Bosworth, Robert Haveman
- The Macroeconomics of Low Inflation
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1995: Microeconomics
The papers address economic and policy issues in five different industries. Bresnahan and Greenstein examine the migration of corporate computer users from massive mainframes to distributed computing platforms. Berndt, Cockburn, and Griliches explore the measurement of drug prices, in particular the prices of drugs used to treat depression. The other papers examine similar industry-level issues. Steven A. Morrison and Clifford Winston identify the causes and consequences of airline fare wars in the United States. Matthew White identifies factors that are likely to shape the deregulated markets for electricity generation. Frank Wolak projects how future changes in local and long-distance telephone call rates will affect consumer welfare.
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- Old Dogs and New Tricks: Determinants of the Adoption of Productivity- Enhancing Work Practices
Casey Ichniowski, Kathryn Shaw, Robert W. Crandall - Exporters, Jobs, and Wages in U.S. Manufacturing: 1976-1987
Andrew B. Bernard, J. Bradford Jensen, Robert Z. Lawrence - Participation and Productivity: A Comparison of Worker Cooperatives and Conventional Firms in the Plywood Industry
Ben Craig, John Pencavel, Henry Farber, Alan Krueger - The Information-Integrated Channel: A Study of the U.S. Apparel Industry in Transition
Frederick H. Abernathy, John T. Dunlop, Janice H. Hammond, David Weil, Timothy F. Bresnahan, B. Peter Pashigian - A Bayesian Learning Model Fitted to a Variety of Empirical Learning Curves
Boyan Jovanovic, Yaw Nyarko, Griliches - Efficiency in Manufacturing and the Need for Global Competition
Martin Neil Baily, Hans Gersbach, F. M. Scherer, Frank R. Lichtenberg
- Old Dogs and New Tricks: Determinants of the Adoption of Productivity- Enhancing Work Practices
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1995 No. 2
The first article uses plant-level data on both expenditures and retirements to show how microeconomic investment decisions lead to aggregate investment dynamics. The second reviews the changes in regulation, technology, and applied finance that underlie the recent transformation of U.S. commercial banking in order to forecast the industry’s future under nationwide banking. The third looks for the common elements in the recent collapse of the Mexican peso and several other currency crises of the last twenty years. The fourth investigates the link between stock price movements and real economic activity, in particular, examining whether stock values have a causative effect. And the fifth article examines the existing evidence on the relationship between the size of government and economic performance, in light of the great increase in government involvement in the industrialized economies since World War II.
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- Plant-Level Adjustment and Aggregate Investment Dynamics
Ricardo J. Caballero, Eduardo M. R. A. Engel, John C. Haltiwanger, Michael Woodford, Robert E. Hall - The Transformation of the U.S. Banking Industry: What a Long, Strange Trip It’s Been
Allen N. Berger, Anil K Kashyap, Joseph M. Scalise, Mark Gertler, Benjamin M. Friedman - Currency Crises and Collapses
Rudiger Dornbusch, Ilan Goldfajn, Rodrigo O. Valdés, Sebastian Edwards, Michael Bruno - Stock Ownership Patterns, Stock Market Fluctuations, and Consumption
James M. Poterba, Andrew A. Samwick, Andrei Shleifer, Robert J. Shiller - What Do Cross-Country Studies Teach about Government Involvement, Prosperity, and Economic Growth?
Joel Slemrod, William G. Gale, William Easterly
- Plant-Level Adjustment and Aggregate Investment Dynamics
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1995 No. 1
The first article analyzes trade liberalization across countries to trace the effects of increasing global integration on economic performance. The second examines the experience of floating exchange rate regimes in the aftermath of the Bretton Woods system. The third examines the role of permanent job loss in, labor market dynamics. The fourth assesses the field of growth theory. And the fifth article considers the causes and implications of the late-twentieth-century globalization of the world economy.
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- Economic Reform and the Process of Global Integration
Jeffrey D. Sachs, Andrew Warner, Anders Åslund, Stanley Fischer - International Currency Experience: New Lessons and Lessons Relearned
Maurice Obstfeld, Rudiger Dornbusch, Ronald McKinnon - Lost Jobs
Robert E. Hall, Henry Farber, John Haltiwanger - The Growth of Nations
N. Gregory Mankiw, Edmund S. Phelps, Paul M. Romer - Growing World Trade: Causes and Consequences
Paul Krugman, Richard N. Cooper, T. N. Srinivasan
- Economic Reform and the Process of Global Integration
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1994: Microeconomics
The papers address issues in labor, industrial organization, political economy, international trade, and health. Clifford Winston and Robert Crandall examine historical relationships between federal regulatory policies and voters’ presidential preferences. Robert Staiger and Frank Wolak relate the timing of dumping investigations to the economic impact of U.S. antidumping laws. Donald Kenkel and David Ribar investigate whether alcohol consumption affects the earnings of young adults. Patricia Anderson and Bruce Meyer provide new evidence on the extent of job tenure and turnover. Henry Aaron and Barry Bosworth analyze the politics and economics of recent health care reform proposals. Paul Joskow, Richard Schmalensee, and Natalia Tsukanova describe Russia’s industrial structure and competition policies.
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- Explaining Regulatory Policy
Clifford Winston, Robert W. Crandall, William A. Niskanen, Alvin Klevorick - Measuring Industry-Specific Protection: Antidumping in the United States
Robert W. Staiger, Frank A. Wolak, Robert E. Litan, Michael L. Katz, Leonard Waverman - Alcohol Consumption and Young Adults’ Socioeconomic Status
Donald S. Kenkel, David C. Ribar, Philip J. Cook, Sam Peltzman - The Extent and Consequences of Job Turnover
Patricia M. Anderson, Bruce D. Meyer, John Pencavel, Mark J. Roberts - Economic Issues in Reform of Health Care Financing
Henry J. Aaron, Barry P. Bosworth, David M. Cutler, Mark V. Pauly - Competition Policy in Russia during and after Privatization
Paul L. Joskow, Richard Schmalensee, Natalia Tsukanova, Andrei Shleifer
- Explaining Regulatory Policy
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1994 No. 2
The articles span a range of topics: the effects of tax changes on business investment; liquidity constraints as a determinant of inventory fluctuations; the effects of not coordinating fiscal and monetary policies; the increasing transitory variance of earnings; and the likely contribution of computers and related equipment to productivity.
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- A Reconsideration of Investment Behavior Using Tax Reforms as Natural Experiments
Jason G. Cummins, Kevin A. Hassett, R. Glenn Hubbard, Robert E. Hall, Ricardo J. Caballero - Inventory Investment, Internal-Finance Fluctuations, and the Business Cycle
Robert E. Carpenter, Steven M. Fazzari, Bruce C. Petersen, Anil K. Kashyap, Benjamin M. Friedman - Policy Games: Coordination and Independence in Monetary and Fiscal Policies
William D. Nordhaus, Charles L. Schultze, Stanley Fischer - The Growth of Earnings Instability in the U.S. Labor Market
Peter Gottschalk, Robert Moffitt, Lawrence F. Katz, William T. Dickens - Computers and Output Growth Revisited: How Big is the Puzzle?
Stephen D. Oliner, Daniel E. Sichel, Jack E. Triplett, Robert J. Gordon
- A Reconsideration of Investment Behavior Using Tax Reforms as Natural Experiments
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1994 No. 1
The first article examines how changing U.S. trade patterns, particularly trade with developing countries, have affected U.S. manufacturing. The second article presents a detailed empirical study of the role that saving incentive plans, such as 401(k)s and individual retirement accounts, have played in personal and national saving over the past several decades. The third article explores the connection between employer-provided health insurance for retirees and the decision to retire, focusing primarily on the age at retirement. The fourth article looks at recent economic performance in Mexico and the effects of the currency overvaluation that has emerged. The report in this issue examines the reported weakness in the growth of U.S. real wages and compensation over the past 20 years.
Articles
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- Trade and Jobs in U.S. Manufacturing
Jeffrey D. Sachs, Howard J. Shatz, Alan Deardorff, Robert E. Hall - Do Saving Incentives Work?
Eric M. Engen, William G. Gale, John Karl Scholz, B. Douglas Bernheim, Joel Slemrod - The Effect of Health Insurance on Retirement
Brigitte C. Madrian, Gary Burtless, Jonathan Gruber - Mexico: Stabilization, Reform, and No Growth
Rudiger Dornbusch, Alejandro Werner, Guillermo Calvo, Stanley Fischer
- Trade and Jobs in U.S. Manufacturing
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Report
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- Productivity and Real Wages: Is There a Puzzle?
Barry Bosworth, George L. Perry, Matthew D. Shapiro
- Productivity and Real Wages: Is There a Puzzle?
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1993: Microeconomics 2
The conference papers examined U.S. industrial competitiveness and international comparisons of productivity. Bart van Ark and Dirk Pilat estimated and compared the productivitieso f the manufacturings ectors of Germany,J apan,a nd the United States. Martin Neil Baily showed that regulation and the extent of competition affect the productivities of service industries in the United States, Europe, and Japan. Robert Lawrence and Matthew Slaughter made the case that foreign trade is not the reason for the widening of the wage distribution among U.S. workers. Richard Caves and Matthew Krepps examined the hypothesis that companies may suffer from “fat,” where they hold too many nonproduction workers. Bronwyn Hall found that the return to research and development (R&D) fell in the 1980s, and she explored the reasons for this. In the final paper Paul Romer presented a new proposal for a voluntary levy on companies to fund technology development.
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- Productivity Levels in Germany, Japan, and the United States: Differences and Causes
Bart van Ark, Dirk Pilat, Dale Jorgenson, Frank R. Lichtenberg - Competition, Regulation, and Efficiency in Service Industries
Martin Neil Baily, Robert J. Gordon, Timothy F. Bresnahan - International Trade and American Wages in the 1980s: Giant Sucking Sound or Small Hiccup?
Robert Z. Lawrence, Matthew J. Slaughter, Robert E. Hall, Steven J. Davis, Robert H. Topel - Fat: The Displacement of Nonproduction Workers from U.S. Manufacturing Industries
Richard E. Caves, Matthew B. Krepps, Michelle J. White, Henry Farber - Industrial Research during the 1980s: Did the Rate of Return Fall?
Bronwyn H. Hall, Edwin Mansfield, Adam B. Jaffe - Implementing a National Technology Strategy with Self-Organizing Industry Investment Boards
Paul M. Romer, Zvi Griliches
- Productivity Levels in Germany, Japan, and the United States: Differences and Causes
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1993: Microeconomics 1
Papers in this edition examined the compensation of top executives in regulated companies versus unregulated companies, compared layoffs in the early 90s recession versus the early 80s recession, examined a survey to make inferences about the value to consumers of pain and suffering awards, argued that R&D in one product area can provide spillover benefits to R&D in another area within the same company, and provided a short history of U.S.-Japan semiconductor trade and discusses the various trade problems that have emerged and policies that have been used.
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- Regulatory Constraints on CEO Compensation
Paul Joskow, Nancy Rose, Andrea Shepard, John R. Meyer, Sam Peltzman - The Incidence and Costs of Job Loss: 1982-91
Henry S. Farber, Robert Hall, John Pencavel - The Consumer Welfare Effects of Liability for Pain and Suffering: An Exploratory Analysis
John E. Calfee, Clifford Winston, W. Kip Viscusi - The Diversification of Production
Boyan Jovanovic, Richard J. Gilbert - Semiconductor Dependency and Strategic Trade Policy
Kenneth Flamm, Peter C. Reiss - Improving Job Matches in the U.S. Labor Market
John Bishop, Katharine G. Abraham
- Regulatory Constraints on CEO Compensation
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1993 No. 2
The first article presents a new model of the way in which distorted incentives adversely affect financial behavior, focusing especially on how deposit insurance coupled with inadequate regulation led to the thrift industry crisis. The second examines the risk premium on equities-the spread between expected real returns on bonds and stocks-and presents evidence that it has decreased in recent years. The third presents fresh data and analysis of the Russian program to privatize firms. The fourth examines the importance of the credit channel between monetary policy and real economic activity. The fifth provides new empirical evidence on the connection between economic expansion and poverty. The report in this issue questions the accepted wisdom about how U.S. exporters price in foreign markets.
Articles
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- Looting: The Economic Underworld of Bankruptcy for Profit
George A. Akerlof, Paul M. Romer, Robert E. Hall, N. Gregory Mankiw - Movements in the Equity Premium
Olivier J. Blanchard, Robert Shiller, Jeremy J. Siegel - Privatizing Russia
Maxim Boycko, Andrei Shleifer, Robert W. Vishny, Stanley Fischer, Jeffrey D. Sachs - Economic Activity and the Short-Term Credit Markets: An Analysis of Prices and Quantities
Benjamin M. Friedman, Kenneth N. Kuttner, Ben S. Bernanke, Mark Gertler - Poverty, Income Distribution, and Growth: Are They Still Connected?
Rebecca M. Blank, David Card, Frank Levy, James L. Medoff
- Looting: The Economic Underworld of Bankruptcy for Profit
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Report
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- The Responses of U.S. Firms to Exchange Rate Fluctuations: Piercing the Corporate Veil
Subramanian Rangan, Robert Z. Lawrence, Richard N. Cooper
- The Responses of U.S. Firms to Exchange Rate Fluctuations: Piercing the Corporate Veil
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1993 No. 1
The first article examines a common critique of American capitalism: that the stock market systematically undervalues long-term investments and relatively intangible assets. The second article presents a comprehensive analysis of the September 1992 crisis that led to the breakdown of the European monetary system, and offers a prescription for reconstituting that system. The third article takes as its starting point the disappointing recovery from the recent U.S. recession and looks at what is distinctive about the economy’s behavior in the periods around recessions and what was special about the latest recession. The first of three reports in this issue investigates the role of various factors, including governance, in transforming state enterprises in Poland, and suggests implications of the Polish experience for the privatization process elsewhere in Eastern Europe. The second report analyzes whether the recent rapid advance in U.S. productivity is as special as some have suggested. The last report examines the likely effect of proposed changes in the investment tax credit on future investment, drawing upon historical evidence about the importance of tax incentives for equipment investment.
Articles
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- The Value and Performance of U.S. Corporations
Bronwyn H. Hall, Robert E. Hall, John Heaton, N. Gregory Mankiw - The Unstable EMS
Barry Eichengreen, Charles Wyplosz, William H. Branson, Rudiger Dornbusch - Was This Recession Different? Are They All Different?
George L. Perry, Charles L. Schultze, Benjamin M. Friedman, James Tobin
- The Value and Performance of U.S. Corporations
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Reports
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- Transforming State Enterprises in Poland: Evidence on Adjustment by Manufacturing Firms
Brian Pinto, Marek Belka, Stefan Krajewski, Andrei Shleifer - The Jobless Recovery: Does it Signal a New Era of Productivity-Led Growth?
Robert J. Gordon, Martin Neil Baily - Tax Incentives and Equipment Investment
Peter K. Clark, Daniel E. Sichel
- Transforming State Enterprises in Poland: Evidence on Adjustment by Manufacturing Firms
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1992: Microeconomics
Papers in this edition covered a range of issues in technology, productivity, labor markets, financial management, and the cost of a carbon tax.
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- Standard Setting in High-Definition Television
Joseph Farrell, Carl Shapiro, Richard R. Nelson, Roger G. Noll - Governance Structure, Managerial Characteristics, and Firm Performance in the Deregulated Rail Industry
Ann F. Friedlaender, Ernst R. Berndt, Gerard McCullough, John R. Meyer, Ronald R. Braeutigam - Productivity Dynamics in Manufacturing Plants
Martin Neil Baily, Charles Hulten, David Campbell, Timothy Bresnahan, Richard E. Caves - Race and School Quality Since Brown v. Board of Education
Michael A. Boozer, Alan B. Krueger, Shari Wolkon, John C. Haltiwanger, Glenn Loury - The Structure and Performance of the Money Management Industry
Josef Lakonishok, Andrei Shleifer, Robert W. Vishny, Oliver Hart, George L. Perry - Carbon Taxes and Economic Welfare
Dale W. Jorgenson, Daniel T. Slesnick, Peter J. Wilcoxen, Paul L. Joskow, Raymond Kopp
- Standard Setting in High-Definition Television
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1992 No. 2
The first article examines the likely impact of resource limits and environmental degradation on world growth. The second presents a model of consumer saving behavior focusing on the desire to prepare against job loss and income decline. The first of three reports in this issue investigates the connection between equipment investment and economic growth. The second analyzes the first year of Russia’s economic reform. The last provides new estimates of the income elasticity of money demand.
Articles
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-
- Lethal Model 2: The Limits to Growth Revisited
William D. Nordhaus, Robert N. Stavins, Martin L. Weitzman - The Buffer-Stock Theory of Saving: Some Macroeconomic Evidence
Christopher D. Carroll, Robert E. Hall, Stephen P. Zeldes
- Lethal Model 2: The Limits to Growth Revisited
-
Reports
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-
- Equipment Investment and Economic Growth: How Strong is the Nexus?
J. Bradford de Long, Lawrence H. Summers, Andrew B. Abel - Prospects for Russia’s Economic Reforms
David Lipton, Jeffrey D. Sachs, Vladimir Mau, Edmund S. Phelps - U.S. Money Demand: Surprising Cross-Sectional Estimates
Casey B. Mulligan, Xavier Sala-I-Martin, N. Gregory Mankiw, Julio J. Rotemberg
- Equipment Investment and Economic Growth: How Strong is the Nexus?
-
1992 No. 1
The first paper presents a model of regional economic performance and uses it to examine the general features of regional growth and fluctuations, with insights for the U.S. states and the European Community. The remaining papers and final report of this volume explore the transition underway in the economies of Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union. The second paper explores the process of stabilization and economic reform in Russia. The third paper grapples with the elusive question of what shapes the economic behavior of the people of the ex-communist countries. The fourth paper raises a number of important questions about new credits scheduled to be channeled to the countries of the former Soviet bloc through the international financial institutions. The concluding report of this volume examines the economic transition in eastern Germany and the obstacles that lie ahead.
Articles
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-
- Regional Evolutions
Olivier Jean Blanchard, Lawrence F. Katz - Stabilization and Economic Reform in Russia
Stanley Fischer, Lawrence Summers, William Nordhaus - Hunting for Homo Sovieticus: Situational versus Attitudinal Factors in Economic Behavior
Robert J. Shiller, Maxim Boycko, Vladimir Korobov, Sidney G. Winter, Thomas Schelling - Official Creditor Seniority and Burden-Sharing in the Former Soviet Bloc
Jeremy Bulow, Kenneth Rogoff, Afonso S. Bevilaqua, Susan Collins, Michael Bruno
- Regional Evolutions
-
Reports
-
-
- Economic Transition in Eastern Germany
Rudiger Dornbusch, Holger Wolf, Lewis Alexander
- Economic Transition in Eastern Germany
-
1991: Microeconomics
In this edition, Richard E. Caves, Michael D. Whinston, and Mark A. Hurwitz looked at the pharmaceutical industry and the entry of generic drugs when patents expire, and Fred Mannering and Clifford Winston studied brand loyalty in the auto industry. Following this was the study by Steve J. Davis and John Haltiwanger of the increase in wage inequality in U.S. manufacturing. The three papers on aspects of industrial organization consisted of two review essays, one by Franklin M. Fisher and the other by Alvin K. Klevorick, author of The Handbook on Industrial Organization and an analysis of the antitrust guidelines by Robert Willig.
-
-
- Patent Expiration, Entry, and Competition in the U.S. Pharmaceutical Industry
Richard E. Caves, Michael D. Whinston, Mark A. Hurwitz, Ariel Pakes, Peter Temin - Brand Loyalty and the Decline of American Automobile Firms
Fred Mannering, Clifford Winston, Zvi Griliches, Richard Schmalensee - Wage Dispersion between and within U.S. Manufacturing Plants, 1963-86
Steve J. Davis, John Haltiwanger, Lawrence F. Katz, Robert Topel - Directions and Trends in Industrial Organization: A Review Essay on the Handbook of Industrial Organization
Alvin K. Klevorick, Paul MacAvoy, Sam Peltzman - Merger Analysis, Industrial Organization Theory, and Merger Guidelines
Robert D. Willig, Steven C. Salop, F. M. Scherer
- Patent Expiration, Entry, and Competition in the U.S. Pharmaceutical Industry
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1991 No. 2
The first paper examines how poverty in the United States worsened during the 1980s. The second paper explores the apparent upward drift in the natural rate of unemployment. The third attempts to disentangle the determinants of house prices. The first report of this volume looks for evidence of a credit crunch in the banking sector. The second report analyzes current state and local fiscal problems. A special symposium of four short papers examines prospects for the political and economic future of the republics of the former Soviet Union.
Articles
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-
- Macroeconomic Performance and the Disadvantaged
David M. Cutler, Lawrence F. Katz, David Card, Robert E. Hall - Why has the Natural Rate of Unemployment Increased over Time?
Chinhui Juhn, Kevin M. Murphy, Robert H. Topel, Janet L. Yellen, Martin Neil Baily - House Price Dynamics: The Role of Tax Policy and Demography
James M. Poterba, David N. Weil, Robert Shiller
- Macroeconomic Performance and the Disadvantaged
-
Reports
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-
- The Credit Crunch
Ben S. Bernanke, Cara S. Lown, Benjamin M. Friedman - The 1991 State and Local Fiscal Crisis
Edward M. Gramlich, Robert J. Gordon
- The Credit Crunch
-
Symposium on the Soviet Economy after Communism
-
-
- Economic Reform in the USS and the Role of Aid
Stanley Fischer
- Economic Reforms in the Sovereign States of the Former Soviet Union
William W. Hogan - Do Borders Matter? Soviet Economic Reform after the Coup
William D. Nordhaus, Merton J. Peck, Thomas J. Richardson - Reversing the Soviet Economic Collapse
Andrei Shleifer, Robert W. Vishny - Discussion
- Economic Reform in the USS and the Role of Aid
-
1991 No. 1
The first paper analyzes the impact of currency union on the economy of East Germany and presents a wage subsidy proposal for East German industry. The second models the convergence of per capita income and output across U.S. states and European regions. The third employs household survey evidence to study the decline in economywide private saving. The fourth paper compares the U.S. banking system with the systems in Germany, Japan, and the United Kingdom. A shorter report looks at the connection between Japanese keiretsu and foreign trade.
Articles
-
-
- East Germany in from the Cold: The Economic Aftermath of Currency Union
Eric George A. Akerlof, Andrew K. Rose, Janet L. Yellen, Helga Hessenius, Rudiger Dornbusch, Manuel Guitian - Convergence Across States and Regions
Robert J. Barro, Xavier Sala-I-Martin, Olivier Jean Blanchard, Robert E. Hall - The Decline in Saving: Evidence from Household Surveys
Barry Bosworth, Gary Burtless, John Sabelhaus, James M. Poterba, Lawrence H. Summers - Financial Structure: An International Perspective
Allen B. Frankel, John D. Montgomery, Benjamin M. Friedman, Mark Gertler
- East Germany in from the Cold: The Economic Aftermath of Currency Union
-
Report
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-
- Efficient or Exclusionist? The Import Behavior of Japanese Corporate Groups
Robert Z. Lawrence, Gary R. Saxonhouse
- Efficient or Exclusionist? The Import Behavior of Japanese Corporate Groups
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1990: Microeconomics
The first five papers in this edition look at mergers, takeovers, and restructurings, and the implications of these for antitrust policy, while the last two papers focus on likely impact on productivity of changes in the rate of investment and low rate of saving in the U.S.
-
-
- Hostile Takeovers in the 1980s: The Return to Corporate Specialization
Sanjai Bhagat, Andrei Shleifer, Robert W. Vishny, Gregg Jarrel, Lawrence Summers - The Impact of Corporate Restructuring on Industrial Research and Development
Bronwyn H. Hall, Ernst Berndt, Richard C. Levin - R and D Cooperation and Competition
Michael L. Katz, Janusz A. Ordover, Franklin Fisher, Richard Schmalensee - Vertical Integration and Market Foreclosure
Oliver Hart, Jean Tirole, Dennis W. Carlton, Oliver E. Williamson - The Concentration-Margins Relationship Reconsidered
Michael Salinger, Richard E. Caves, Sam Peltzman - Capital, Labor, and Productivity
Paul M. Romer - The Productivity of Capital in a Period of Slower Growth
Martin Neil Baily, Charles L. Schultze, Dale W. Jorgenson, Robert E. Hall
- Hostile Takeovers in the 1980s: The Return to Corporate Specialization
-
1990 No. 2
Four major papers explore hyperinflation, the cyclical movements of U.S. workers into and out of employment, whether the stock market has noise effects on business investment, and plans and prospects for European monetary union. Two shorter reports discuss privatizing property in Eastern Europe and recent U.S. trade performance.
Articles
-
-
- Extreme Inflation: Dynamics and Stabilization
Rudiger Dornbusch, Federico Sturzenegger, Holger Wolf, Stanley Fischer, Robert J. Barro - The Cyclical Behavior of the Gross Flows of U.S. Workers
Olivier Jean Blanchard, Peter Diamond, Robert E. Hall, Kevin Murphy - The Stock Market and Investment: Is the Market a Sideshow?
Randall Morck, Andrei Shleifer, Robert W. Vishny, Matthew Shapiro, James M. Poterba - European Monetary Reform: Progress and Prospects
Alberto Giovannini, Richard N. Cooper, Robert E. Hall
- Extreme Inflation: Dynamics and Stabilization
-
Reports
-
-
- Privatization in Eastern Europe: The Case of Poland
David Lipton, Jeffrey Sachs, Lawrence H. Summers - U.S. Current Account Adjustment: An Appraisal
Robert Z. Lawrence, Peter Hooper
- Privatization in Eastern Europe: The Case of Poland
-
1990 No. 1
The first major paper evaluates the implications of the aging of the American population for optimal national saving. The second paper analyzes Eastern Europe’s move to develop national market economies. The third paper takes a fresh look at the transmission mechanism, by which monetary policy affects aggregate demand. The first report returns to the unsettled issue of the relationship between the level of inflation and uncertainty about its future course. The second report analyzes changes in corporate leverage. The final report assesses the prospects for economic reform in the Soviet Union.
Articles
-
-
- An Aging Society: Opportunity or Challenge?
David M. Cutler, James M. Poterba, Louise M. Sheiner, Lawrence H. Summers, George A. Akerlof - Creating a Market Economy in Eastern Europe: The Case of Poland
David Lipton, Jeffrey Sachs, Stanley Fischer, Janos Kornai - New Evidence on the Monetary Transmission Mechanism
Christina D. Romer, David H. Romer, Stephen M. Goldfeld, Benjamin M. Friedman
- An Aging Society: Opportunity or Challenge?
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Reports
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-
- Inflation and Uncertainty at Short and Long Horizons
Laurence Ball, Stephen G. Cecchetti, Robert J. Gordon - U.S. Corporate Leverage: Developments in 1987 and 1988
Ben S. Bernanke, John Y. Campbell, Toni M. Whited, Mark Warshawsky - Soviet Economic Reform: The Longest Road
William D. Nordhaus, Ed A. Hewett
- Inflation and Uncertainty at Short and Long Horizons
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1989: Microeconomics
The papers in this edition examine the validity of the economic theory of regulation, the theory that has provided the intellectual basis for the deregulation movement. The second examines how deregulation has worked in practice in the airline industry-a success story in the eyes of many economists but a disaster in the eyes of some members of the public. And the third looks at the electric power industry, one that many people believe is ripe for partial or complete deregulation. Next comes a paper examining the pattern of wages across industries. The authors argue that there is a solid empirical basis for the idea that some industries provide good jobs and some bad jobs. And policy should encourage the growth of good jobs. The issue concludes with two studies of patents and technology development. These papers look at recent trends in patenting and explain a striking new method that has been developed to value the protection that patents provide.
-
-
- The Economic Theory of Regulation after a Decade of Deregulation
Sam Peltzman, Michael E. Levine, Roger G. Noll - Enhancing the Performance of the Deregulated Air Transportation System
Steven A. Morrison, Clifford Winston, Elizabeth E. Bailey, Alfred E. Kahn - Regulatory Failure, Regulatory Reform, and Structural Change in the Electrical Power Industry
Paul L. Joskow, Douglas R. Bohi, Frank M. Gollop - Industry Rents: Evidence and Implications
Lawrence F. Katz, Lawrence H. Summers, Robert E. Hall, Charles L. Schultze, Robert H. Topel - Patents: Recent Trends and Puzzles
Zvi Griliches, William D. Nordhaus, F. M. Scherer - Patent Renewal Data
Ariel Pakes, Margaret Simpson, Kenneth Judd, Edwin Mansfield
- The Economic Theory of Regulation after a Decade of Deregulation
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1989 No. 2
The first major paper, by William D. Nordhaus, examines theories of the political business cycle that model how political administrations may manipulate the economy to enhance their reelection prospects. The second major paper, by Steven N. Durlauf, analyzes the persistence of shocks to aggregate output, and discusses the implications of persistence for stabilization policy. The first report, by Benjamin M. Friedman and David I. Laibson, looks at the extreme movements in prices on the U.S. stock market and presents a statistical model for characterizing them. Two reports, by Daniel J. B. Mitchell and by Michael L. Wachter and William H. Carter, assess current wage and labor market conditions in an attempt to forecast whether inflation is likely to accelerate over the next few years. Finally, a symposium of four reports, by Richard N. Cooper, Rudiger Dornbusch, Vittorio Grilli, and Merton J. Peck, examines issues surrounding Europe 1992.
Remembered
-
-
- Joseph A. Pechman 1918-1989
George L. Perry
- Joseph A. Pechman 1918-1989
-
Articles
-
-
- Alternative Approaches to the Political Business Cycle
William D. Nordhaus, Alberto Alesina, Charles L. Schultze - Output Persistence, Economic Structure, and the Choice of Stabilization Policy
Steven N. Durlauf, David Romer, Christopher A. Sims
- Alternative Approaches to the Political Business Cycle
-
Report
-
-
- Economic Implications of Extraordinary Movements in Stock Prices
Benjamin M. Friedman, David I. Laibson, Hyman P. Minsky
- Economic Implications of Extraordinary Movements in Stock Prices
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Reports on Wage Development and Prospects
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-
- Wage Pressures and Labor Shortages: The 1960s and 1980s
Daniel J. B. Mitchell - Norm Shifts in Union Wages: Will 1989 be a Replay of 1969?
Michael L. Wachter, William H. Carter
- Wage Pressures and Labor Shortages: The 1960s and 1980s
-
Symposium on Europe 1992
-
-
- Industrial Organization and the Gains from Europe 1992
Merton J. Peck - Financial Markets and 1992
Vittorio Grilli - Europe without Borders
Richard N. Cooper - Europe 1992: Macroeconomic Implications
Rudiger Dornbusch
- Industrial Organization and the Gains from Europe 1992
-
1989 No. 1
The first major paper provides a model showing a central role for job vacancies in explaining the dynamics of the labor market. The second paper speculates on how institutional changes over the past decade have altered the way in which U.S. monetary policy affects the national economy. The third paper examines the correlation among the stock price indexes of Japan, Germany, Great Britain, and the United States before and after the stock market crash of October 1987. The fourth paper focuses on the Federal Reserve’s measures of capacity utilization and questions the conventional interpretation of high capacity utilization as signaling the need for contractionary monetary policy. The first of two reports details the plight of the nation’s troubled thrift industry, evaluates the legislative solution crafted by the administration and Congress, and looks ahead to signs of possible trouble in the banking industry. The final report examines the way exchange rate changes in the dollar are reflected in U.S. prices of imported manufactured goods.
Articles
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-
- The Beveridge Curve
Olivier Jean Blanchard, Peter Diamond, Robert E. Hall, Janet Yellen - Institutional Change and the Efficacy of Monetary Policy
Barry Bosworth, Alan S. Blinder, David Romer - International Stock Price Movements: Links and Messages
George M. von Furstenberg, Bang Nam Jeon, N. Gregory Mankiw, Robert J. Shiller - Assessing the Federal Reserve’s Measures of Capacity and Utilization
Matthew D. Shapiro, Robert J. Gordon, Lawrence H. Summers
- The Beveridge Curve
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Reports
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-
- Cleaning up the Depository Institutions Mess
R. Dan Brumbaugh, Jr., Andrew S. Carron, Robert E. Litan, Benjamin M. Friedman - Exchange Rate Pass-Through in the 1980s: The Case of U.S. Imports of Manufactures
Peter Hooper, Catherine L. Mann
- Cleaning up the Depository Institutions Mess
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1988 No. 2
The first major paper focuses on the post-1973 slowdown of U.S. productivity growth and on the extent to which measurement problems may have distorted our perception of the slowdown. The second paper challenges the validity of the widely accepted natural rate hypothesis and argues that demand management can affect an economy’s long-run average level of output and unemployment. The third major paper presents a new model of labor turnover in the United States and relates it to competing macroeconomic theories. The first of four reports in this issue examines capital gains taxation in the United States, with emphasis on the revenue consequences of cutting the capital gains tax rate. The second challenges prevailing hard-landing scenarios associated with the U.S. budget and trade deficits. Two final reports assess the dangers and benefits of debt buybacks, an increasingly popular debt-reduction strategy of LDC debtors.
Articles
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-
- The Productivity Slowdown, Measurement Issues, and the Explosion of Computer Power
Martin Neil Baily, Robert J. Gordon, William D. Nordhaus, David Romer - How Does Macroeconomic Policy Affect Output?
J. Bradford de Long, Lawrence H. Summers, N. Gregory Mankiw, Christina D. Romer - Job Switching and Job Satisfaction in the U.S. Labor Market
George A. Akerlof, Andrew K. Rose, Janet L. Yellen, Laurence Ball, Robert E. Hall
- The Productivity Slowdown, Measurement Issues, and the Explosion of Computer Power
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Reports
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-
- Capital Gains Taxation in the United States: Realizations, Revenue, and Rhetoric
Alan J. Auerbach, James Poterba - Global Adjustments to a Shrinking U.S. Trade Deficit
Jeffrey D. Sachs, Robert Z. Lawrence - The Buyback Boondoggle
Jeremy Bulow, Kenneth Rogoff, Rudiger Dornbusch - Comprehensive Debt Retirement: The Bolivian Example
Jeffrey D. Sachs, Jeremy Bulow, Kenneth Rogoff
- Capital Gains Taxation in the United States: Realizations, Revenue, and Rhetoric
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1988 No. 1
Two articles present new Keynesian theories of the macroeconomy and compare, against alternative theories, the ability of the new theories to explain key features of the economy. A third article examines the recent rapid growth of debt among U.S. nonfinancial corporations and its implications for their financial stability. A fourth article looks at the effect that capital market imperfections have on U.S. business investment and its financing. One report in this issue analyzes European unemployment and the likely consequences of demand stimulation in Europe. A second report looks at the extended slowdown in U.S. wage inflation
Articles
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-
- The New Keynesian Economics and the Output-Inflation Trade-Off
Laurence Ball, N. Gregory Mankiw, David Romer, George A. Akerlof, Andrew Rose, Janet Yellen, Christopher A. Sims - Is There a Corporate Debt Crisis?
Ben S. Bernanke, John Y. Campbell, Benjamin M. Friedman, Lawrence H. Summers - Financing Constraints and Corporate Investment
Steven M. Fazzari, R. Glenn Hubbard, Bruce C. Petersen, Alan S. Blinder, James M. Poterba - Examining Alternative Macroeconomic Theories
Bruce C. Greenwald, Joseph E. Stiglitz, Robert E. Hall, Stanley Fischer
- The New Keynesian Economics and the Output-Inflation Trade-Off
-
Reports
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-
- Back to the Future: European Unemployment Today Viewed from America in 1939
Robert J. Gordon, Charles L. Schultze - Disaggregated Wage Developments
Wayne Vroman, John M. Abowd, Gary Burtless
- Back to the Future: European Unemployment Today Viewed from America in 1939
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1987 No. 3: Microeconomics
Three of the papers in this issue look at factors that affect the productivity of manufacturing plants. The fourth paper reports the results of a survey that asked R& D directors how they protect the intellectual property rights resulting from their companies’ research. The fifth and sixth papers examine the organization of markets.
-
-
- Productivity and Changes in Ownership of Manufacturing Plants
Frank R. Lichtenberg, Donald Siegel, Dale Jorgenson and Edwin Mansfield - Industrial Relations and Productivity in the U.S. Automobile Industry
Harry C. Katz, Thomas A. Kochan, Jeffrey H. Keefe, Edward Lazear and George C. Eads - Product Development in the World Auto Industry
Kim B. Clark, W. Bruce Chew, Takahiro Fujimoto, John Meyer and F. M. Scherer - Appropriating the Returns from Industrial Research and Development
Richard C. Levin, Alvin K. Klevorick, Richard R. Nelson, Sidney G. Winter, Richard Gilbert and Zvi Griliches - Do Entry Conditions Vary across Markets?
Timothy F. Bresnahan, Peter C. Reiss, Robert Willig and George J. Stigler - Technological Change, Sunk Costs, and Competition
Joseph E. Stiglitz, Daniel McFadden and Sam Peltzman
- Productivity and Changes in Ownership of Manufacturing Plants
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1987 No. 2
The first major article analyzes the thrift industry crisis. The second looks at the role of government policymaking in Korea’s economic success and at issues raised by that country’s trade surplus. The third examines the likely effects of the Tax Reform Act of 1986 on U.S. corporate and total private saving. Three shorter reports explore, respectively, Japan’s low level of imports, the use of exit bonds as a way to resolve the LDC debt crisis, and the low U.S. national saving rate.
Remembered
-
-
- Walter W. Heller, 1915-1987
Joseph A. Pechman
- Walter W. Heller, 1915-1987
-
Articles
-
-
- Thrift Industry Crisis: Causes and Solutions
R. Dan Brumbaugh, Jr., Andrew S. Carron, Dwight M. Jaffee, William Poole - Korean Growth Policy
Rudiger Dornbusch, Yung Chul Park, Susan M. Collins, Vittorio Corbo - Tax Policy and Corporate Saving
James M. Poterba, Robert E. Hall, R. Glenn Hubbard
- Thrift Industry Crisis: Causes and Solutions
-
Reports
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-
- Imports in Japan: Closed Markets or Minds?
Robert Z. Lawrence, Paul Krugman - U.S. Commercial Banks and the Developing-Country Debt Crisis
Jeffrey Sachs, Harry Huizinga, John B. Shoven - Why is U.S. National Saving So Low?
Lawrence Summers, Chris Carroll, Alan S. Blinder
- Imports in Japan: Closed Markets or Minds?
-
1987 No. 1
The first major article seeks to explain the persistence of the massive U.S. trade deficit despite the dramatic fall in the dollar since the first quarter of 1985. The second explores the speed with which wages and prices respond to each other and to real shocks to the economy. The third attempts to sort out the contributions of Keynesian and classical forces to unemployment in both the United States and Europe. A shorter report analyzes the help-wanted index as a measure of job vacancies and investigates the relation between vacancies and unemployment. A special symposium of four short papers examines the merits of trade protection as a response to the U.S. trade deficit.
Articles
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-
- The Persistence of the U.S. Trade Deficit
Paul R. Krugman, Richard E. Baldwin, Barry Bosworth, Peter Hooper - Aggregate and Individual Price Adjustment
Olivier Jean Blanchard, Robert J. Gordon, Christopher A. Sims - Keynesian and Classical Unemployment in Four Countries
Robert M. Coen, Bert G. Hickman, Stephen M. Goldfeld, James Tobin
- The Persistence of the U.S. Trade Deficit
-
Report
-
-
- Help-Wanted Advertising, Job Vacancies, and Unemployment
Katharine G. Abraham, Michael Wachter
- Help-Wanted Advertising, Job Vacancies, and Unemployment
-
Symposium on Trade Protection
-
-
- External Balance Correction: Depreciation or Protection?
Rudiger Dornbusch - The Effects of U.S. Trade Protection for Autos and Steel
Robert W. Crandall - The Protectionist Prescription: Errors in Diagnosis and Cure
Robert Z. Lawrence, Robert E. Litan - Protection and Retaliation: Changing the ‘Rules of the Game’
Catherine L. Mann - Comments and Discussion
Gary Hufbauer
- External Balance Correction: Depreciation or Protection?
-
1986 No. 2
One major article analyzes the oil price collapse of 1986 and draws inferences for the future of oil prices. A second explores the links between imperfect competition in product markets and the performance of the U.S. macroeconomy. A third seeks to explain the apparent upward drift of the “normal” unemployment rate in the United States. Four shorter reports examine, respectively, the LDC debt crisis, the role of debt in the U.S. farm crisis, the causes of the 1980s slump in Europe, and the procedure for seasonally adjusting the U.S. unemployment rate.
Articles
-
-
- Lessons from the 1986 Oil Price Collapse
Dermot Gately, M. A. Adelman, James M. Griffin - Market Structure and Macroeconomic Fluctuations
Robert E. Hall, Olivier Jean Blanchard, R. Glenn Hubbard - Why Is the Unemployment Rate So Very High near Full Employment?
Lawrence H. Summers, Katharine G. Abraham, Michael L. Wachter
- Lessons from the 1986 Oil Price Collapse
-
Reports
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-
- Managing the LDC Debt Crisis
Jeffrey Sachs, John Williamson - The Farm Debt Crisis and Public Policy
Charles W. Calomiris, R. Glenn Hubbard, James H. Stock, Benjamin M. Friedman - Causes of the 1980s Slump in Europe
J.-P. Fitoussi, E. S. Phelps, Jeffrey Sachs - A Quick Fix for the Unemployment Estimate
Michael C. Lovell
- Managing the LDC Debt Crisis
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1986 No. 1
Three major articles cover, respectively, the role of liquidity constraints in tax policy analysis, the perplexing relationship between short-term and long-term interest rates, and the relations between the cost of capital and business fixed investment. A special symposium of four short papers explores exchange rate, trade, and capital flow issues arising from the fluctuation of the dollar’s exchange rate during the early 1980s.
Articles
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-
- Liquidity Constraints, Fiscal Policy, and Consumption
R. Glenn Hubbard, Kenneth L. Judd, Robert E. Hall, Lawrence Summers - The Term Structure of Interest Rates Revisited
N. Gregory Mankiw, Stephen M. Goldfeld, Robert J. Shiller - Investment, Output, and the Cost of Capital
Matthew D. Shapiro, Olivier J. Blanchard, Michael C. Lovell
- Liquidity Constraints, Fiscal Policy, and Consumption
-
Symposium on Exchange Rates, Trade, and Capital Flows
-
-
- Target Zones and the Management of the Dollar
John Williamson - The Limits of Monetary Coordination as Exchange Rate Policy
William H. Branson - Dealing with the Trade Deficit in a Floating Rate System
Richard N. Cooper - Flexible Exchange Rates and Excess Capital Mobility
Rudiger Dornbusch - Comments and Discussion
Stanley Fischer
- Target Zones and the Management of the Dollar
-
1985 No. 2
One article analyzes and evaluates the floating exchange rate system. Another studies the aggregate consumption function, including the response of consumption spending to the tax changes of the 1980s. One article and a shorter report examine the Latin American debt problem. Two other reports focus on union wage developments and on technological innovation as an explanation for productivity.
Articles
-
-
- Policy and Performance Links between LDC Debtors and Industrial Nations
Rudiger Dornbusch, William H. Branson, William R. Cline - Floating Exchange Rates: Experience and Prospects
Maurice Obstfeld, Richard N. Cooper, Paul R. Krugman - The Time Series Consumption Function Revisited
Alan S. Blinder, Angus Deaton, Robert E. Hall, R. Glenn Hubbard
- Policy and Performance Links between LDC Debtors and Industrial Nations
-
Reports
-
-
- External Debt and Macroeconomic Performance in Latin America and East Asia
Jeffrey D. Sachs, John Williamson - Shifting Norms in Wage Determination
Daniel J. B. Mitchell, Katharine G. Abraham - Innovation and Productivity in U.S. Industry
Martin Neil Baily, Alok K. Chakrabarti, Richard C. Levin
- External Debt and Macroeconomic Performance in Latin America and East Asia
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1985 No. 1
Three articles cover, respectively, the determinants of U. S. business investment, wage developments in declining, unionized industries, and the U.S. economic policy posture during the 1980s. A special symposium of three short papers and three discussion papers explores exchange rate movements and their implications. One shorter report examines the disinflation of the 1980s.
Articles
-
-
- Taxes and the Investment Recovery
Barry P. Bosworth, John B. Shoven, Lawrence H. Summers - Manufacturing Wage Dispersion: An End Game Interpretation
Colin Lawrence, Robert Z. Lawrence, Robert M. Solow, Michael L. Wachter - The Dollar and the Policy Mix: 1985
Jeffrey D. Sachs, Stanley Fischer, Maurice Obstfeld
- Taxes and the Investment Recovery
-
Symposium on the Exchange Rate
-
-
- The Dazzling Dollar
Jeffrey A. Frankel - U.S. International Capital Flows and the Dollar
Peter Isard, Lois Stekler - The Decline and Fall of the Dollar: Some Policy Issues
Stephen N. Marris - Three Discussion Papers from the Symposium on Exchange Rates
Richard N. Cooper, Rudiger Dornbusch, James Tobin - Comments and Discussion
Christopher Sims, William Nordhaus, Walter Salant, George Perry, William Poole, Franco Modigliani, Henry Wallich, Rudiger Dornbusch, Richard Cooper, Fred Bergsten
- The Dazzling Dollar
-
Report
-
-
- Understanding Inflation in the 1980s
Robert J. Gordon, Robert E. Hall
- Understanding Inflation in the 1980s
-
1984 No. 2
Four major articles cover the causes of high interest rates, the Latin American debt crisis, bank deregulation and policy effectiveness, and a formal model of stock prices. Two shorter reports examine the effect of the exchange rate on the U.S. price level and why unemployment fell so fast in the recovery.
Articles
-
-
- Perspectives on High World Real Interest Rates
Olivier J. Blanchard, Lawrence H. Summers, Alan S. Blinder, William D. Nordhaus - Latin American Debt: I Don’t Think We are in Kansas Anymore
Carlos F. Diaz-Alejandro, Paul R. Krugman, Jeffrey D. Sachs - Bank Regulation and the Effectiveness of Open Market Operations
John H. Kareken, Robert E. Hall, James Tobin - Stock Prices and Social Dynamics
Robert J. Shiller, Stanley Fischer, Benjamin M. Friedman
- Perspectives on High World Real Interest Rates
-
Reports
-
-
- Exchange Rates and the Prices of Nonfood, Nonfuel Products
Wing T. Woo, Peter Hooper - Unemployment and Potential Output in the 1980s
Robert J. Gordon, Peter K. Clark
- Exchange Rates and the Prices of Nonfood, Nonfuel Products
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1984 No. 1
Three major articles cover macroeconomic issues of current policy concern: a new analysis of the potential gains from policy coordination among nations; a careful assessment of foreign industrial targeting and its impact on U.S. industry; and a statistical analysis evaluating recent trends in productivity, price-wage margins, and the capital share of national income. Three reports in this issue assess the importance for union wage behavior of recent market, institutional, and legal developments; examine the expectations theory relating long-term and short-term interest rates; and analyze how MI targeting as a means of conducting monetary policy has been affected by regulatory and institutional changes in the financial system.
Articles
-
-
- Macroeconomic Policy Coordination among the Industrial Economies
Gilles Oudiz, Jeffrey Sachs, Olivier J. Blanchard, Stephen N. Marris, Wing T. Woo - The U.S. Response to Foreign Industrial Targeting
Paul R. Krugman, Carlos F. Diaz-Alejandro, Robert Z. Lawrence - Productivity and Profits in the 1980s: Are They Really Improving?
Peter K. Clark, Robert J. Gordon, Charles L. Schultze
- Macroeconomic Policy Coordination among the Industrial Economies
-
Reports
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-
- Wage Concessions and Long-Term Union Wage Flexibility
Robert J. Flanagan, Marvin H. Kosters - Do Long-Term Interest Rates Overreact to Short-Term Interest Rates?
N. Gregory Mankiw, Lawrence H. Summers, Laurence Weiss - Changes in the Financial System: Implications for Monetary Policy
Thomas D. Simpson, Alan S. Blinder
- Wage Concessions and Long-Term Union Wage Flexibility
-
1983 No. 2
The papers address questions of immediate concern for decisionmakers, as well as other long-standing issues about the economic system and how its performance can be improved. Topics include experience with disinflationary policies in both the United Kingdom and the United States, the possible importance of attitudinal factors in the productivity slowdown, and the distortions caused by many aspects of business taxation.
Remembered
-
-
- William John Fellner 1905-1983
James Tobin
- William John Fellner 1905-1983
-
Articles
-
-
- Changing the Rules: Economic Consequences of the Thatcher Regime
Willem H. Buiter, Marcus H. Miller, Jeffrey D. Sachs, William H. Branson - Hearts and Minds: A Social Model of U.S. Productivity Growth
Thomas E. Weisskopf, Samuel Bowles, David M. Gordon, Martin Neil Baily, Albert Rees - Corporate Taxation in the United States
Alan J. Auerbach, Henry J. Aaron, Robert E. Hall
- Changing the Rules: Economic Consequences of the Thatcher Regime
-
Reports
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-
- Some Aspects of the 1982-83 Brazilian Payments Crisis
Carlos F. Diaz-Alejandro, Richard N. Cooper, Rudiger Dornbusch - Why Have Short-Term Interest Rates Been So High?
Richard H. Clarida, Benjamin M. Friedman, Jeffrey R. Shafer - What Have We Learned about Disinflation?
George L. Perry - Tentative Lessons from the Recent Disinflationary Effort
Phillip Cagan, William Fellner - General Discussion of Perry and of Cagan-Fellner
- Some Aspects of the 1982-83 Brazilian Payments Crisis
-
1983 No. 1
The papers address puzzles and policy issues from many parts of the current economic scene: floating exchange rates, U.S. competitiveness, labor market conditions, interest rate developments, unemployment insurance in the United States, and unemployment around the world.
Articles
-
-
- Floating Exchange Rates after Ten Years
Jeffrey R. Shafer, Bonnie E. Loopesko, Ralph C. Bryant, Rudiger Dornbusch - U.S. Labor Markets: Imbalance, Wage Growth, and Productivity in the 1970s
James L. Medoff, Robert E. Hall, Robert M. Solow - Is Trade Deindustrializing America? A Medium-Term Perspective
Robert Z. Lawrence, Richard N. Cooper, George M. von Furstenberg
- Floating Exchange Rates after Ten Years
-
Reports
-
-
- Forward Rates and Future Policy: Interpreting the Term Structure of Interest Rates
Robert J. Shiller, John Y. Campbell, Kermit L. Schoenholtz, Laurence Weiss - Why is Insured Unemployment so Low?
Gary Burtless, Lawrence H. Summers - Real Wages and Unemployment in the OECD Countries
Jeffrey D. Sachs, Robert J. Gordon
- Forward Rates and Future Policy: Interpreting the Term Structure of Interest Rates
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1982 No. 2
Two articles deal with topics that have been central themes in the economic programs advanced by the Reagan administration: the need to encourage business investment and the desire to return federal program responsibilities to state and local governments. Four reports in this issue cover a range of topics: the likely consequences of decontrolling gas prices, financial problems arising from high interest rates and recession, evidence on the productivity slowdown, and the relation between bankruptcies and the financial policies of corporations.
Articles
-
-
- Capital Formation and Economic Policy
Barry P. Bosworth, Robert M. Solow, Lawrence H. Summers - An Econometric Examination of the New Federalism
Edward M. Gramlich, Henry J. Aaron, Michael C. Lovell
- Capital Formation and Economic Policy
-
Reports
-
-
- A Note on Deregulation of Natural Gas Prices
Richard N. Cooper, W. David Montgomery - Financial Crises: Recent Experience in U.S. and International Markets
Andrew S. Carron, Benjamin M. Friedman - The Productivity Growth Slowdown by Industry
Martin Neil Baily, William D. Nordhaus - Interest Rates, Inflation, and Corporate Financial Policy
Roger H. Gordon, John B. Shoven
- A Note on Deregulation of Natural Gas Prices
-
1982 No. 1
One article examines proposals for a gold standard. A second examines alternative models for projecting the effects of policy changes and assesses the forecasts of the Reagan administration. A third evaluates the Swedish attempt at a countercyclical investment policy rule. Three reports in this issue look at the significance of recent wage concessions, the costs of reducing inflation through restrictive monetary policy, and issues concerning how monetary policy should be conducted.
Articles
-
-
- The Gold Standard: Historical Facts and Future Prospects
Richard N. Cooper, Rudiger Dornbusch, Robert E. Hall - The Swedish Investment Funds System as a Stabilization Policy Rule
John B. Taylor, Martin Neil Baily, Stanley Fischer - Policy Analysis with Econometric Models
Christopher A. Sims, Stephen M. Goldfeld, Jeffrey D. Sachs
- The Gold Standard: Historical Facts and Future Prospects
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Reports
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-
- Recent Union Contract Concessions
Daniel J. B. Mitchell, Albert Rees - The Output Cost of Disinflation in Traditional and Vector Autoregressive Models
Robert J. Gordon, Stephen R. King, Franco Modigliani - Recent Monetary Developments and Controversies
David E. Lindsey, Robert J. Gordon, Albert Wojnilower, Lawrence Klein, Christopher Sims, Ralph Bryant, Alan Blinder, John Kareken, Franco Modigliani, Jeffrey Sachs, William Poole
- Recent Union Contract Concessions
-
1981 No. 2
Two articles focus on inflation, attempting both to illuminate our understanding of economic performance during the past fifteen years and to evaluate some alternative theoretical models of inflation. A third article examines one important attempt to end inflation: the economic policies of Mrs. Thatcher’s Conservative government in the United Kingdom. A fourth article presents a new analysis of inventory fluctuations. A short report in this issue examines the debt of less-developed countries; a second analyzes the uncertainty surrounding monthly unemployment statistics.
Articles
-
-
- The Thatcher Experiment: The First Two Years
Willem H. Buiter, Marcus Miller, Martin Neil Baily, William H. Branson - Relative Shocks, Relative Price Variability, and Inflation
Stanley Fischer, Robert E. Hall, John B. Taylor - Retail Inventory Behavior and Business Fluctuations
Alan S. Blinder, Michael C. Lovell, Lawrence H. Summers - Some Macro Foundations for Micro Theory
Charles L. Schultze, William Fellner, Robert J. Gordon
- The Thatcher Experiment: The First Two Years
-
Reports
-
-
- The Debt of Developing Countries: Another Look
Robert Solomon, Jeffrey Sachs - Measuring Unemployment
Lawrence H. Summers
- The Debt of Developing Countries: Another Look
-
1981 No. 1
Four articles address economic issues of current importance: the causes of the slowdown in productivity growth, the impacts of various proposals for tax reform on investment and the stock market, financial innovations and their implications for monetary policy, and the importance of oil prices and other economic developments on current account balances and exchange rates. Two shorter reports examine the problems with traditional mortgages and retirement annuities in a period of inflation, and the characteristics of price expectations by business during the 1970s.
Articles
-
-
- Productivity and the Services of Capital and Labor
Martin Neil Baily, Robert J. Gordon, Robert M. Solow - Taxation and Corporate Investment: A q-Theory Approach
Lawrence H. Summers, Barry P. Bosworth, James Tobin, Philip M. White - Innovations and Monetary Control
Donald D. Hester - The Current Account and Macroeconomic Adjustment in the 1970s
Jeffrey D. Sachs, Richard N. Cooper, Stanley Fischer
- Productivity and the Services of Capital and Labor
-
Reports
-
-
- Unraveling the Real-Payment Twist
Michael C. Lovell - Price Expectations of Business Firms
Frank de Leeuw, Michael J. McKelvey
- Unraveling the Real-Payment Twist
-
1980 No. 2
Two articles focus on inflation, attempting both to illuminate our understanding of economic performance during the past fifteen years and to evaluate some alternative theoretical models of inflation. A third article examines one important attempt to end inflation: the economic policies of Mrs. Thatcher’s Conservative government in the United Kingdom. A fourth article presents a new analysis of inventory fluctuations. A short report in this issue examines the debt of less-developed countries; a second analyzes the uncertainty surrounding monthly unemployment statistics.
Articles
-
-
- The Central Role of Credit Crunches in Recent Financial History
Albert M. Wojnilower, Benjamin M. Friedman, Franco Modigliani - Oil and Economic Performance in Industrial Countries
William D. Nordhaus, Hendrik S. Houthakker, Jeffrey D. Sachs - Real User Costs and the Demand for Single-Family Housing
Patric H. Hendershott, Barry P. Bosworth, Dwight M. Jaffee - The Financial Valuation of the Return to Capital
William C. Brainard, John B. Shoven, Laurence Weiss, Phillip Cagan, Robert E. Hall
- The Central Role of Credit Crunches in Recent Financial History
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Reports
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-
- Changes in Employment Prospects for Black Males
Frank Levy - The Consumer Price Index and the Measurement of Recent Inflation
Alan S. Blinder, Jack E. Triplett, Edward Denison, Joseph Pechman
- Changes in Employment Prospects for Black Males
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1980 No. 1
The articles cover topics that have been of major interest to the profession and of concern to policymakers during the decade of the panel’s existence: stabilization policy, the theory of employment arrangements, the system of flexible exchange rates, and inflation.
Remembered
-
-
- Arthur M. Okun 1928-1980
Robert J. Gordon, Robert E. Hall
- Arthur M. Okun 1928-1980
-
Articles
-
-
- Stabilization Policy Ten Years After
James Tobin, Edmund S. Phelps, William Poole, Martin Feldstein, Hendrik Houthakker, Franco Modigliani, Patric Hendershott, Benjamin Friedman, George Perry, James Duesenberry, William Fellner, Robert Gordon, William Branson, Martin Baily, William Nordhaus - Employment Fluctuations and Wage Rigidity
Robert E. Hall, Martin Neil Baily, Lawrence H. Summers, James Duesenberry, Franco Modigliani, William Nordhaus, James Tobin, Robert Gordon, Peter Kenen, Thomas Juster, Robin Marris - Exchange Rate Economics: Where Do We Stand?
Rudiger Dornbusch, William H. Branson, Marina v. N. Whitman, Peter Kenen, Hendrik Houthakker, Robert E. Hall, Robert Lawrence, George Perry, William Fellner, William Brainard, George von Furstenburg - Inflation in Theory and Practice
George L. Perry, William Fellner, Robert J. Gordon, James Duesenberry, Robert E. Hall, Christopher Sims, William Nordhaus, Robin Marris, Thomas Juster, John Shoven, Benjamin Friedman, James Tobin
- Stabilization Policy Ten Years After
-
1979 No. 2
Three articles address economic puzzles of current importance. The first identifies the contrasting behavior of real wages among major industrial countries during the 1970s and examines its causes and consequences. The second explores the reasons why residential construction remained strong between mid-1978 and mid- 1979. The third investigates the pronounced slowdown in U.S. productivity. Two shorter reports are also addressed to issues concerning productivity, while a final report presents facts and figures on the 1979 petroleum shortage.
Articles
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-
- Wages, Profits, and Macroeconomic Adjustment: A Comparative Study
Jeffrey D. Sachs, William H. Branson, Robert J. Gordon - Mortgage Credit Availability and Residential Construction
Dwight M. Jaffee, Kenneth T. Rosen, Benjamin M. Friedman, Lawrence R. Klein - The Slowdown in Productivity Growth: Analysis of Some Contributing Factors
J. R. Norsworthy, Michael J. Harper, Kent Kunze
- Wages, Profits, and Macroeconomic Adjustment: A Comparative Study
-
Reports
-
-
- Issues in the Analysis of Capital Formation and Productivity Growth
Peter K. Clark - 1979
Comments and Discussion of “The Slowdown in Productivity Growth: Analysis of Some Contributing Factors” and “Issues in the Analysis of Capital Formation and Productivity Growth”Martin Neil Baily, Edward F. Dension, Michael L. Wachter - The “End-of-Expansion” Phenomenon in Short-Run Productivity Behavior
Robert J. Gordon, William Poole, Robert Hall, Charles Holt - The U.S. Petroleum Crisis of 1979
Philip K. Verleger, Jr., Arthur Okun, Robert Lawrence, Christopher Sims, Robert Hall, William Nordhaus
- Issues in the Analysis of Capital Formation and Productivity Growth
-
Communication
-
-
- Estimating Unemployment Duration
James P. Luckett
- Estimating Unemployment Duration
-
1979 No. 1
The first article analyzes labor market dynamics and unemployment, a topic that has received attention in this journal several times, beginning with Robert Hall’s article in 1970. The second examines business fixed investment, bringing to bear the experience of the seventies on some questions raised by Charles Bischoff’s article in 1971. The third, which considers the appropriate response of monetary and fiscal policy to supply shocks, follows up the analysis by Robert J. Gordon in 1975. Five shorter reports in this issue address a range of current topics of theoretical and policy importance.
Articles
-
-
- Labor Market Dynamics and Unemployment: A Reconsideration
Kim B. Clark, Lawrence H. Summers, Charles C. Holt, Robert E. Hall, Martin Neil Baily, Kim B. Clark - Investment in the 1970s: Theory, Performance, and Prediction
Peter K. Clark, Alan Greenspan, Stephen M. Goldfeld, Peter Clark - Macro Policy Responses to Price Shocks
Edward M. Gramlich
- Labor Market Dynamics and Unemployment: A Reconsideration
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Reports
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-
- The Credibility Effect and Rational Expectations: Implications of the Gramlich Study
William Fellner, Edmund S. Phelps, Robert J. Gordon - Toward a Better Understanding of Trade Balance Trends: The Cost-Price Puzzle
Robert Z. Lawrence - Financial Innovation and the Monetary Aggregates
Richard D. Porter, Thomas D. Simpson, Eileen Mauskopf - The Monetary Deceleration: What Does It Mean and Why Is It Happening?
William Poole - Discussion of “Financial Innovation and the Monetary Aggregates” and “The Monetary Deceleration: What Does It Mean and Why Is It Happening?”
David Fand, William Fellner, Franco Modigliani, Arthur Okun, Robert Hall, James Tobin, James Duesenberry, Stephen Goldfeld, Robin Marris - Growth and Inflation: Analysis by Industry
Hendrik S. Houthakker - Growth and Inflation: Analysis by Industry. Discussion
William Nordhaus, Michael Wachter, James Duesenberry, John Norsworthy, Robert Gordon, George Perry
- The Credibility Effect and Rational Expectations: Implications of the Gramlich Study
-
1978 No. 3
The first article analyzes in depth the determinants of and the outlook for wages in collective bargaining. The other three articles address particular aspects of interest rates and financial markets. One focuses on the issue of the crowding out of private investment by the financing of government deficits and essentially reaffirms the constructive potential of fiscal policies to stimulate economic activity. Another offers a basically negative verdict on the sensitivity of household saving to changes in interest rates. The final article offers some warnings to monetary policymakers and economic forecasters derived from the relationships between short- and long-term interest rates implied by “efficient-markets theory.” The single report in this issue indicates that a squeeze on corporate profitability that developed during the late 1960s has gradually relaxed during the 1970s.
Articles
-
-
- Union Wage Determination: Policy Implications and Outlook
Daniel J. B. Mitchell - Comments and Discussion: Union Wage Determination: Policy Implications and Outlook
Marvin H. Kosters, Michael L. Wachter - Crowding Out or Crowding In? Economic Consequences of Financing Government Deficits
Benjamin M. Friedman - Comments and Discussion: Crowding Out or Crowding In? Economic Consequences of Financing Government Deficits
Stephen M. Goldfeld, John H. Kareken, Michael Hamburger - The Measurement and Determination of Loanable-Funds Saving
E. Philip Howrey, Saul H. Hymans - Comments and Discussion: The Measurement and Determination of Loanable-Funds Saving
Martin Feldstein, John B. Shoven, Michael J. Boskin, E. Philip Howrey, Saul H. Hymans - Efficient-Markets Theory: Implications for Monetary Policy
Frederic S. Mishkin - Comments and Discussion: Efficient-Markets Theory: Implications for Monetary Policy
William Poole, Franco Modigliani, Frederick S. Mishkin
- Union Wage Determination: Policy Implications and Outlook
-
Report
-
-
- The Profit Picture: Trends and Cycles
Michael C. Lovell
- The Profit Picture: Trends and Cycles
-
1978 No. 2
This marks the first time that an entire conference of the panel, and hence an entire issue of this journal, has been concentrated on a single topic: namely the inflationary era starting from the mid-60s.
Remembered
-
-
- Robert Aaron Gordon 1908-1978
Joseph A. Pechman
- Robert Aaron Gordon 1908-1978
-
Articles
-
-
- Slowing the Wage-Price Spiral: The Macroeconomic View
George L. Perry, Martin Neil Baily, William Poole - Tax-Based Incomes Policies
Laurence S. Seidman, Robert J. Gordon, Arthur M. Okun - Administrative Problems of Tax-Based Incomes Policies
Larry L. Dildine, Emil M. Sunley, Joseph A. Pechman, Richard E. Slito - Federal Government Initiatives to Reduce the Price Level
Robert W. Crandall, Edward M. Gramlich, Robert E. Hall - New Policies to Fight Inflation: Sources of Skepticism
Albert Rees, Daniel J. B. Mitchell, Lloyd Ulman
- Slowing the Wage-Price Spiral: The Macroeconomic View
-
Report
-
-
- A Wage-Increase Permit Plan to Stop Inflation
Abba P. Lerner
- A Wage-Increase Permit Plan to Stop Inflation
-
Symposium
-
-
- Implications for Policy: A Symposium
Gardner Ackley, Alan S. Greenspan, Franco Modigliani
- Implications for Policy: A Symposium
-
1978 No. 1
The three articles below reflect important challenges to professional thinking arising out of the economic developments of recent years. One reaffirms the potential constructive contribution of stabilization policy, despite the disappointing record of the past decade. The second underlines concern about the distorting effect of inflation on interest rates (and hence on investment and saving decisions) under our current tax system. The third analyzes theoretically the causes and consequences of changes in exchange rates under the new regime of flexible rates.
Articles
-
-
- Stabilization Policy and Private Economic Behavior
Martin Neil Baily, Edmund S. Phelps, Benjamin M. Friedman - Inflation, Tax Rules, and the Long-Term Interest Rate
Martin Feldstein, Lawrence Summers, William J. Fellner, Robert J. Gordon - Exchange Rates and the International Adjustment Process
Pentti J. K. Kouri, Jorge Braga De Macedo, Walter S. Salant, Marina v. N. Whitman
- Stabilization Policy and Private Economic Behavior
-
Reports
-
-
- An Analysis of the 1977 U.S. Trade Deficit
Robert Z. Lawrence. Comments from Gary Smeal, George von Furstenberg, R. A. Gordon, Hendrik Houthakker, Lawrence Krause, William Cline, John Kareken - State and Local Budgets the Day after it Rained: Why is the Surplus So High?
Edward M. Gramlich, Robert Hall, Michael Wachter, George von Furstenberg, Arthur Okun, Saul Hymans, William Poole, Christopher Sims - Consumer Sentiment and Spending on Durable Goods
Frederic S. Mishkin, Robert Hall, John Shoven, Thomas Juster, Michael Lovell
- An Analysis of the 1977 U.S. Trade Deficit
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1977 No. 2
A wide variety of financial topics are covered by the four articles: a critique of keying monetary policy to short-run monetary targets; an assessment of the impact of stock and bond valuation on corporate investment; an examination of the debt positions of less developed countries; and a study of two-way relationships between inflation and monetary policy in various industrial nations. The two reports explore aspects of labor markets: one develops an analytical framework for evaluating government programs that directly create jobs, and the other interprets recent trends in laborforce participation.
Articles
-
-
- The Inefficiency of Short-Run Monetary Targets for Monetary Policy
Benjamin M. Friedman, James Duesenberry, William Poole - Corporate Investment: Does Market Valuation Matter in the Aggregate?
George M. von Furstenberg, Michael C. Lovell, James Tobin - World Inflation and Monetary Accommodation in Eight Countries
Robert J. Gordon, Robert E. Hall, Michael Parkin - A Perspective on the Debt of Developing Countries
Robert Solomon, Alan Greenspan, John H. Kareken, Goran Ohlin
- The Inefficiency of Short-Run Monetary Targets for Monetary Policy
-
Reports
-
-
- Macroeconomic Effects of Selective Public Employment and Wage Subsidies
Martin Neil Baily, James Tobin, Charles Holt, Michael Wachter, James Tobin, Thomas Juster, Benjamin Friedman, George Perry, Robert Hall, Arthur Okun, Martin Feldstein, James Duesenberry, Robert J. Gordon - Intermediate Swings in Labor-Force Participation
Michael L. Wachter, James Tobin, James Duesenberry, Frank Schiff, Frederic Mishkin, Charles Holt, Robert Solow, Marina Whitman, Arthur Okun, George Perry
- Macroeconomic Effects of Selective Public Employment and Wage Subsidies
-
1977 No. 1
The topics covered span a wide range of concerns of the panel: the estimation of potential gross national product, the determinants of investment demand, the effects of changes in wealth on consumer spending, the effectiveness of temporary tax changes, corporate profitability, cyclical influences on the quality of jobs, and wage and price interactions.
Articles
-
-
- Potential Output and Productivity
George L. Perry, Michael L. Wachter, Otto Eckstein, Peter K. Clark - Investment, Interest Rates, and the Effects of Stabilization Policies
Robert E. Hall, Christopher A. Sims, Franco Modigliani, William Brainard - What Depressed the Consumer? The Household Balance Sheet and the 1973-75 Recession
Frederic S. Mishkin, Robert J. Gordon, Saul H. Hymans
- Potential Output and Productivity
-
Reports
-
-
- Is a Tax Rebate an Effective Tool for Stabilization Policy?
Franco Modigliani, Charles Steindel, Saul H. Hymans, F. Thomas Juster - Is the Rate of Profit Falling?
Martin Feldstein, Lawrence Summers, Michael Wachter - Worker Upgrading and the Business Cycle
Wayne Vroman, Michael Wachter - Can the Inflation of the 1970s be Explained?
Robert J. Gordon. Comments from George Perry, Franco Modigliani, Arthur Okun, Michael Wachter, Pentti Kouri, Edmund Phelps, Christopher Sims
- Is a Tax Rebate an Effective Tool for Stabilization Policy?
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1976 No. 3
Presented at that time, and published here, were four articles and one report. One of the five studies focuses on recent experience in international exchange rates, two are concerned with the contractual setting of wages, and two explore certain features of the demand for money.
Articles
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-
- Flexible Exchange Rates in the Short Run
Rudiger Dornbusch, Paul Krugman, Richard N. Cooper, Marina v. N. Whitman - Contract Theory and the Moderation of Inflation by Recession and by Controls
Martin Neil Baily, William D. Nordhaus, Christopher A. Sims - Wage Interdependence in Unionized Labor Markets
Robert J. Flanagan, Charles C. Holt, Barry Bosworth - The Case of the Missing Money
Stephen M. Goldfeld, David I. Fand, William C. Brainard
- Flexible Exchange Rates in the Short Run
-
Report
-
-
- Interpretation of a Regularity in the Behavior of M2William Fellner, Dan Larkins
-
1976 No. 2
The first article of this issue examines the capacity situation, primarily through a detailed analysis of the aluminum, paper, and steel industries. The second examines anew the basic models of business inventory policy that attempt to explain the volatile swings in inventory investment in durable-goods manufacturing. The third reports on a wide-ranging investigation of the impact of minimum wages on other wages, employment, and family incomes. The fourth article offers a theoretical analysis of the scope and limitations of “rational expectations” in macroeconomics. A shorter report that concludes this issue offers some new evidence on a question regarding the labor-market activities of workers on temporary layoff.
Remembered
-
-
- Kermit Gordon 1916-1976
Walter W. Heller
- Kermit Gordon 1916-1976
-
Articles
-
-
- Capacity Creation in Basic-Materials Industries
Barry Bosworth, Robert J. Gordon, John B. Shoven - Inventory Behavior in Durable-Goods Manufacturing: The Target-Adjustment Model
Martin Feldstein, Alan Auerbach, Robert E. Hall, Michael C. Lovell - Impact of Minimum Wages on Other Wages, Employment, and Family Incomes
Edward M. Gramlich, Robert J. Flanagan, Michael L. Wachter - Rational Expectations in the Macro Model
William Poole, Edmund S. Phelps, Martin N. Baily
- Capacity Creation in Basic-Materials Industries
-
Report
-
-
- The Extent of Job Search during Layoff
Thomas F. Bradshaw, Janet L. Scholl
- The Extent of Job Search during Layoff
-
1976 No. 1
This issue includes several new studies of topics that have regularly absorbed the sanel-demographic aspects of unemployment, Phillips-curve relationships, money demand, and monetary policy. It also contains the completion of a two-part study on inflation-adjusted measurement of profits, an evaluation of countercyclical public-employment programs, and an exchange of views on seasonal adjustment of unemployment.
Articles
-
-
- Inflation Accounting and Nonfinancial Corporate Profits: Financial Assets and Liabilities
John B. Shoven, Jeremy I. Bulow, William Fellner, Edward M. Gramlich - Public Employment as Fiscal Policy
Michael Wiseman, R. A. Gordon, James Tobin - The Changing Cyclical Responsiveness of Wage Inflation
Michael L. Wachter, Robert E. Hall, Charles C. Holt - Employment Instability and High Unemployment Rates
Stephen T. Marston, Martin Feldstein, Saul H. Hymans
- Inflation Accounting and Nonfinancial Corporate Profits: Financial Assets and Liabilities
-
Reports
-
-
- Testing for and Removing Bias in the Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Series
John A. Brittain - Least-Squares Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Data
Michael C. Lovell, John F. Early - Discussion of Brittain, Lovell, and Early Reports
- Interpreting the Fed’s Monetary Targets
William Poole - Some Problems of Money Demand
Jared Enzler, Lewis Johnson, John Paulus - Discussion of Poole and Enzler, Johnson, and Paulus Reports
- Testing for and Removing Bias in the Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Series
-
1975 No. 3
Three of these articles continue the panel’s analysis of inflation, dealing with corporate profits accounting under inflation, the behavior of raw-materials prices, and the importance of aggregate demand in price behavior; the fourth explores some current controversies in international economics.
Erratum
Articles
-
-
- Global Monetarism and the Monetary Approach to the Balance of Payments
Marina V. N. Whitman, William H. Branson, David I. Fand, Lawrence B. Krause, Walter S. Salant - Inflation Accounting and Nonfinancial Corporate Profits: Physical Assets
John B. Shoven, Jeremy I. Bulow, William J. Fellner, Edward M. Gramlich - The Impact of Aggregate Demand on Prices
Robert J. Gordon, William D. Nordhaus, Charles L. Schultze - The 1972-75 Commodity Boom
Richard N. Cooper, Robert Z. Lawrence, Barry Bosworth, Hendrik S. Houthakker
- Global Monetarism and the Monetary Approach to the Balance of Payments
-
Report
-
-
- The Importance of Temporary Layoffs: An Empirical Analysis
Martin S. Feldstein
- The Importance of Temporary Layoffs: An Empirical Analysis
-
1975 No. 2
The problems of inflation and recession continued to occupy the Brookings Panel on Economic Activity in its seventeenth conference, held in Washington on September 11-12, 1975. One or another aspect of these problems is investigated in each of the four articles and two reports in this issue of Brookings Papers on Economic Activity.
Articles
-
-
- The Stock Market and the Economy
Barry Bosworth, Saul Hymans, Franco Modigliani - The Rigidity of Wages and the Persistence of Unemployment
Robert E. Hall, Christopher Sims, Robert Solow, R. A. Gordon - Inflation: Its Mechanics and Welfare Costs
Arthur M. Okun, William Fellner, Michael Wachter - Determinants of Wage Inflation around the World
George L. Perry, Gardner Ackley, William Nordhaus
- The Stock Market and the Economy
-
Reports
-
-
- Falling Profits, Rising Profit Margins, and the Full-Employment Profit Rate
Charles L. Schultze - Why was the Consumer Feeling so Sad?
Michael C. Lovell
- Falling Profits, Rising Profit Margins, and the Full-Employment Profit Rate
-
1975 No. 1
With the nation caught in its worst postwar recession, the sixteenth conference of the Brookings Panel on Economic Activity, held on April 24-25, 1975, devoted much of its attention to the current state of the economy. One of the three articles and six of the seven reports in this issue address questions directly related to the recession, including the events and policies of 1974 and policies for the future.
Articles
-
-
- The Impact of Unemployment Insurance on Job Search
Stephen T. Marston, Robert E. Hall, Charles C. Holt, Martin S. Feldstein - The Allocation of “Oil Deficits”
Robert Solomon, Marina v. N. Whitman, Walter S. Salant - Interest Rates and Their Prospect in the Recovery
James L. Pierce, Stephen M. Goldfeld, David I. Fand
- The Impact of Unemployment Insurance on Job Search
-
Reports
-
-
- Monetary Policy during the Recession
William Poole - Targets for Monetary Policy in the Coming Year
Franco Modigliani, Lucas Papademos - The Optimal Timing of Unemployment in a Recession
Edward M. Gramlich - Alternative Responses of Policy to External Supply Shocks
Robert J. Gordon - A Postmortem of the 1974 Recession
Arthur M. Okun - Policy Alternatives for 1974
George L. Perry - Resource Needs Revisited
Richard N. Cooper
- Monetary Policy during the Recession
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1974 No. 3
One of the papers deals with the role of the dollar in the world economy, one with the fundamental nature of the labor market in the United States, and three with different aspects of the economy’s cyclical performance: the viability of thrift institutions during periods of tight money, the cyclical behavior of productivity in manufacturing, and the impact of recession on different groups in the labor market.
Articles
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- The Current and Future Role of the Dollar: How Much Symmetry?
Marina V. N. Whitman, Richard N. Cooper, Robert Solomon - Deposit Demand, “Hot Money,” and the Viability of Thrift Institutions
William E. Gibson, James L. Pierce - Primary and Secondary Labor Markets: A Critique of the Dual Approach
Michael L. Wachter, R. A. Gordon, Michael J. Piore, Robert E. Hall - Output and Labor Input in Manufacturing
Christopher A. Sims, Michael C. Lovell, Robert M. Solow
- The Current and Future Role of the Dollar: How Much Symmetry?
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Report
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- Recession and the Employment of Demographic Groups
Ralph E. Smith, Jean E. Vanski, Charles C. Holt
- Recession and the Employment of Demographic Groups
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1974 No. 2
Of the six papers, two deal with wage inflation, two with unemployment, and two with petroleum supplies. Unemployment and wage inflation are standard fare for macroeconomists and have been the subjects of many papers in previous issues of this journal. On the other hand, the energy crisis is a new concern of macroeconomics.
Articles
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- The Distributional Effects of Higher Unemployment
Edward M. Gramlich - The Distributional Effects of Higher Unemployment. Comments and Discussion
R. A. Gordon, Charles Holt - The Process of Inflation in the Labor Market
Robert E. Hall - The Process of Inflation in the Labor Market. Comments and Discussion
Robert J. Gordon, James Tobin - Oil: Its Time Allocation and Project Independence
Paul Davidson, Laurence H. Falk, Hoesung Lee - Oil Supply and Tax Incentives
Edward W. Erickson, Stephen W. Millsaps, Robert M. Spann - Comments and Discussionon “Oil: Its Time Allocation and Project Independence” and “Oil Supply and Tax Incentives”Charles Schultze, Robert E. Hall, Paul Davidson, Laurence H. Falk, Edward W. EricksonCharles Schultze, Robert E. Hall, Paul Davidson, Laurence H. Falk, Edward W. Erickson
- The Distributional Effects of Higher Unemployment
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Reports
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- Unemployment and Output in 1974
Arthur M. Okun - Unemployment and Output in 1974. Discussion
F. Thomas Juster - The Wage Process: An Analysis of the Early 1970s
Michael L. Wachter
- Unemployment and Output in 1974
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1974 No. 1
A number of the papers in this issue deal with the special problems of inflation today and the way they complicate the conduct of policy.
Articles
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-
- The Effects of External Inflationary Shocks
James L. Pierce, Jared J. Enzler, David I. Fand, R. J. Gordon - Food Prices and Inflation
Dale E. Hathaway, Hendrik S. Houthakker, John A. Schnittker - U.S. Import Prices in the Currency-Contract Period
Stephen P. Magee, William Branson, Lawrence Krause - The Falling Share of Profits
William D. Nordhaus, Nicholas Kaldor, Alan Greenspan, William Brainard
- The Effects of External Inflationary Shocks
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Report
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- Monetary Policy in 1974 and Beyond
James Tobin - Reflections on U.S. Macroeconomic Policy
William Poole - Discussion of Tobin and Poole Reports
Robert J. Gordon, R. A. Gordon - Commodity Prices and the U.S. Price Level
Joel Popkin - Indexing Brazilian Style: Inflation without Tears?
Albert Fishlow
- Monetary Policy in 1974 and Beyond
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1973 No. 3
The first article of this volume analyzes how energy requirements will be met in the long run. The second article presents a broadly ranging review, updating, and synthesis of quantitative research on the demand for money. The third article discusses analytically the arguments for and against protecting homebuilding from the impact of restrictive credit conditions. The last major article of this issue analyzes four available measures of operating rates in manufacturing – the Federal Reserve Board index, the Wharton School index, the McGraw-Hill utilization survey, and an index that he constructs from the McGraw-Hill survey of capacity growth. The first shorter report of this issue furthers the discussion of capacity utilization measurements. The second shorter report presents new evidence on the relative occupational success of black and white young men in the late 1960s. The final report of this volume analyzes the impact of the price and wage control programs of 1971-73, continuing the monitoring of controls by the Brookings panel.
Articles
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- The Allocation of Energy Resources
William D. Nordhaus, Hendrik Houthakker, Robert Solow - The Demand for Money Revisited
Stephen M. Goldfeld, James Duesenberry, William Poole - Protecting Homebuilding from Restrictive Credit Conditions
William E. Gibson, John Kareken, Barry Bosworth - Capacity in Manufacturing
George L. Perry
- The Allocation of Energy Resources
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Reports
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- Capacity Utilization: Concept, Measurement, and Recent Estimates
Lawrence R. Klein, Virginia Long, Alan Greenspan, Douglas Greenwald, Nathan Edmonson, George Perry - The Response of Wages and Prices to the First Two Years of Controls
Robert J. Gordon - The Relative Occupational Success of Blacks and Whites
Robert E. Hall, Richard A. Kasten
- Capacity Utilization: Concept, Measurement, and Recent Estimates
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Correction
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- “Rational Expectations”: A Correction
Thomas J. Sargent
- “Rational Expectations”: A Correction
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1973 No. 2
The first article of this issue evaluates the performance of leading indicators in predicting cyclical turning points. The second article explores the long-run growth and short-run fluctuation in the revenue yielded by the federal individual income tax. The third paper of this issue explores the theoretical and empirical implications of relationships between expected inflation and interest rates. The first report reviews the “mystery” of the weakness of the dollar in the spring and early summer of 1973. One report focuses on the recent rapid increase in food and farm price. The brief report that concludes this issue examines some problems of short-run strategy for monetary policy.
Articles
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- On the Use of Leading Indicators to Predict Cyclical Turning Points
Saul H. Hymans, Alan Greenspan, Julius Shiskin, John Early - Responsiveness of the Federal Individual Income Tax to Changes in Income
Joseph A. Pechman, Edward Gramlich, Oswald Brownlee - Rational Expectations, the Real Rate of Interest, and the Natural Rate of Unemployment
Thomas J. Sargent, David Fand, Stephen Goldfeld
- On the Use of Leading Indicators to Predict Cyclical Turning Points
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Reports
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- The Post-Devaluation Weakness of the Dollar
Walter S. Salant - The 1972-73 Food Price Spiral
John A. Schnittker - Some Observations on Monetary Policy
Barry James S. Duesenberry
- The Post-Devaluation Weakness of the Dollar
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1973 No. 1
The first article of this volume analyzes the impact on state and local budgets of various types of federal grants. The second article of this volume studies changes in the labor market position of black Americans since World War II and concludes that they made “dramatic economic progress” during the last decade. The third article of this volume analyzes the social welfare costs of higher unemployment. The fourth article presents evidence that the quality as well as the quantity of employment is raised by higher levels of overall economic activity. Two shorter reports in this issue deal with the recent inflation and possible steps to combat it. The final report in this issue Stephen Magee presents an analysis of some short-term impacts of changes in exchange rates on the trade balance.
Articles
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- State and Local Fiscal Behavior and Federal Grant Policy
Edward M. Gramlich, Harvey Galper, Stephen Goldfeld, Martin McGuire - Changes in the Labor Market for Black Americans, 1948-72
Richard B. Freeman, R. A. Gordon, Duran Bell, Robert E. Hall - The Welfare Cost of Higher Unemployment
Robert J. Gordon, William Nordhaus, William Poole - Upward Mobility in a High-Pressure Economy
Arthur M. Okun, William Fellner, Alan Greenspan
- State and Local Fiscal Behavior and Federal Grant Policy
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Reports
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- The Current Inflation: Malign Neglect?
Barry Bosworth, John Farmer - Wage-Price Controls: Where Do We Go from Here?
William Poole - Discussion of the Bosworth and Poole Reports
- Currency Contracts, Pass-Through, and Devaluation
Stephen P. Magee
- The Current Inflation: Malign Neglect?
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1972 No. 3
The first article of this issue seeks to explain the slowdown in productivity growth that marked the late sixties and to project productivity for the rest of the decade of the seventies. The second article of this issue presents a model of business investment spending that differs substantially from other models of the investment process that have been developed in recent years. The third article deals with an important problem of statistical methodology in estimating the potency of fiscal and monetary tools. The fourth article presents a quantitative assessment of the loss of U.S. welfare arising from restrictions on international trade. The fifth major article of this volume analyzes the role of turnover in the labor force and, particularly, its interrelationship with unemployment. The first report in this issue, examines the recent and prospective behavior of consumer saving rates. The final report of this issue examines the erratic behavior of the official series on real spendable weekly earnings that is published monthly by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Articles
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- The Recent Productivity Slowdown
William D. Nordhaus, Barry Bosworth, Robert Solow, Beatrice N. Vaccara - An Alternative Model of Business Investment Spending
M. Ishaq Nadiri, Franco Modigliani, R. J. Gordon - Some Implications of Endogenous Stabilization Policy
Stephen M. Goldfeld, Alan S. Blinder, John Kareken, William Poole - The Welfare Effects of Restrictions on U.S. Trade
Stephen P. Magee, C. Fred Bergsten, Lawrence Krause - Turnover in the Labor Force
Robert E. Hall, Aaron Gordon, Charles Holt
- The Recent Productivity Slowdown
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Reports
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- A Note on Inflation and the Saving Rate
F. Thomas Juster, Paul Wachtel - Real Spendable Weekly Earnings
George L. Perry
- A Note on Inflation and the Saving Rate
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Communication
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- Inflation and the Consumer
George Katona
- Inflation and the Consumer
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1972 No. 2
The first article of this issue examines the job market experience of various labor force groups by analyzing the flows of workers into and out of unemployment. The second article of this issue discusses the reasons why the Federal Reserve cannot precisely hit a target for the size of the money stock-demand deposits and currency-and propose several reforms designed to improve its aim. The third article reviews the experience under Phase I1 of the wage-price controls program. The first report in this issue performs a statistical appraisal of the impact of the wage-price controls. The second report in this volume seeks a common cause for the worldwide wage explosion of recent years. The final report of this issue reviews recent developments and the outlook for federal fiscal policy.
Articles
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- Unemployment Flows in the U.S. Labor Market
George L. Perry, Robert E. Hall, Charles Holt, Hyman Kaitz - Improving Monetary Control
William Poole, Charles Lieberman, David Fand, Stephen M. Goldfeld - Phase II: The U.S. Experiment with an Incomes Policy
Barry Bosworth
- Unemployment Flows in the U.S. Labor Market
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Reports
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- Wage-Price Controls and the Shifting Phillips Curve
Robert J. Gordon - Comments and Discussion: The Bosworth and Gordon Papers
Alan Greenspan, Robert Solow, Otto Eckstein - The Worldwide Wage Explosion
William D. Nordhaus - Outlook for Federal Fiscal Policy
Nancy H. Teeters
- Wage-Price Controls and the Shifting Phillips Curve
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1972 No. 1
The first article estimates that the 1971 currency realignment, when fully effective, will bolster the United States merchandise trade balance by $7 billion to $8 billion a year. The second paper examines the effects of inflation and of transitory changes in income on consumer saving and spending behavior, with particular reference to the inflationary experience of recent years. The third article reaffirms analytically the desirability of an activist fiscal-monetary strategy. Four shorter reports in the present volume discuss the Phase II wageprice control program.
Remembered
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- Warren L. Smith 1914-1972
Saul H. Hymans
- Warren L. Smith 1914-1972
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Articles
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- The Trade Effects of the 1971 Currency Realignments
William H. Branson - Inflation and the Consumer
F. Thomas Juster, Paul Wachtel, Saul Hymans, James Duesenberry - Fiscal-Monetary Activism: Some Analytical Issues
Arthur M. Okun, David I. Fand, William Brainard
- The Trade Effects of the 1971 Currency Realignments
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Reports
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- Observations on Phase II Price and Wage Controls
Gardner Ackley - Controls and Income Shares
George L. Perry - Thoughts on Phase II
Hendrik Houthakker - The Price-Wage Stabilization Program
Edgar R. Fiedler - Discussion of Phase II Papers
- The Role of Interest Rates and Inflation in the Consumption Function
William Poole - The 1973 Federal Budget
Nancy H. Teeters
- Observations on Phase II Price and Wage Controls
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1971 No. 3
The first major article explores the implications of the changing demographic composition of the work force for aggregate output and productivity in the economy. The second article investigates the questions of how rapid a return to full employment should be sought by expansionary policies and what general rules might govern policy formulation. The third article investigates the built-in flexibility on the expenditure side of the federal budget. One report summarizes proposals for manpower policy based on continuing research on the inflation-unemployment problem. A fourth major article in the volume assesses what manpower programs could achieve, reviewing both our experience with existing and past programs and the likely results of various proposed programs. A shorter report in this issue assesses the near-term outlook for business spending on plant and equipment using statistical models presented in an earlier article in this journal.
Articles
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- Labor Force Structure, Potential Output, and Productivity
George L. Perry, Edward F. Denison, Robert M. Solow - Alternative Paths to a Stable Full Employment Economy
William Poole, David I. Fand, John Kareken - Built-In Flexibility of Federal Expenditures
Nancy H. Teeters, Joseph Pechman, Warren Smith - Prospects for Shifting the Phillips Curve through Manpower Policy
Robert E. Hall
- Labor Force Structure, Potential Output, and Productivity
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Reports
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- Manpower Proposals for Phase III
Charles C. Holt, C. Duncan MacRae, Stuart O. Schweitzer, Ralph E. Smith - Comments and Discussion: The Hall and Holt Papers
R. A. Gordon, Charles Holt, Robert Hall - The Outlook for Investment in Plant and Equipment
Charles W. Bischoff - U.S. Comparative Advantage: Some Further Results
William H. Branson - The Construction Industry Stabilization Committee: Implications for Phase II
Albert Rees, Arthur Okun
- Manpower Proposals for Phase III
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1971 No. 2
The first article of this issue analyzes recent patterns of corporate external financing, investigating particularly the growing volume of new issues of corporate bonds that has appeared in recent quarters. The second article analyzes trends in U.S. international trade and comparative advantage. The third article investigates the nation’s supply capabilities for homebuilding by considering the adequacy of labor and materials for a further expansion of residential construction. The fourth and final major article considers differences in the response of consumers to changes in different types of income as a possible explanation for the major swings in personal saving that have puzzled economists during the last few years. One of the shorter reports in this issue estimates the impact on employment of the 1970-71 deterioration in the U.S. trade surplus. The remainder of this issue consists of six shorter reports devoted to various aspects of the current inflation problem.
Articles
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- Patterns of Corporate External Financing
Barry Bosworth, Warren Smith, Daniel Brill - Trends in U.S. Trade and Comparative Advantage
William H. Branson, Helen B. Junz, R. A. Gordon, Lawrence Krause - Labor and Material Requirements for Housing
Craig Swan, John Kareken - Saving out of Different Types of Income
Lester D. Taylor, James Duesenberry, Robert Hall, George Jaszi
- Patterns of Corporate External Financing
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Reports
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- How Much of Current Unemployment Did We Import?
Lawrence B. Krause, John A. Mathieson - Thoughts on the Wage-Price Freeze
William Poole - After the Freeze
George L. Perry - Discussion: The Poole and Perry Reports
- Has the Phillips Curve Shifted? Some Additional Evidence
Charles L. Schultze - Phillips-Type Approach or Acceleration?
William Fellner - The Mirage of Steady Inflation
Arthur M. Okun - Steady Anticipated Inflation: Mirage or Oasis?
Robert J. Gordon - Comments and Discussion: The Fellner, Okun, and Gordon Reports
James Tobin, Saul Hymans
- How Much of Current Unemployment Did We Import?
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1971 No. 1
The first article in this issue analyzes the forecasting and policy implications of five alternative views of the forces motivating spending on business investment. The second article, analyzes quantitative credit controls, an issue that was heatedly debated during the period of tight money in 1969-70. The third article develops a model of wage and price determination that extends his study published last year. The fourth and final article estimates the extent to which consumption was directly curbed by the personal income tax surcharge of 1968-70. Three shorter reports look at the recent unemployment experience of professional and technical workers; analyze the 1970 balance-of-payments deficit; and offer views of the current budget outlook.
Articles
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- Business Investment in the 1970s: A Comparison of Models
Charles W. Bischoff, Barry Bosworth, Robert Hall - An Analysis of Quantitative Credit Controls and Related Devices
Richard G. Davis, James Duesenberry, David Fand, Lawrence Krause - Inflation in Recession and Recovery
Robert J. Gordon, William Brainard, Thomas Juster - The Personal Tax Surcharge and Consumer Demand, 1968-70
Arthur M. Okun, Saul Hymans, Lester Taylor, Robert Eisner
- Business Investment in the 1970s: A Comparison of Models
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Reports
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- The Market for Professional and Technical Workers
Robert E. Hall - The Balance of Payments in 1970
William H. Branson - The 1972 Budget: Where It Stands and Where It Might Go
Nancy H. Teeters
- The Market for Professional and Technical Workers
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Communication
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- Consumer Durable Spending
George Katona
- Consumer Durable Spending
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1970 No. 3
The first article in this issue makes the case for a passive balance-of-payments strategy by the United States. The second article assembles empirical and analytical information on the nature of unemployment in the United States under conditions of essentially full employment. The third article, George Perry analyzes the importance of the composition of unemployment by age and sex for the current inflation and for the trade-off between inflation and unemployment that confronts the nation. The five shorter reports in this issue deal with various timely subjects: the most recent disappointments in the performance of prices, uncertainties in the overall economic outlook for 1971, the sag in corporate profits, Federal Reserve open market policy in 1970, and the key characteristics of the demand for money.
Articles
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- A Passive Balance-of-Payments Strategy for the United States
Lawrence B. Krause, William Branson, William Fellner - Why Is the Unemployment Rate So High at Full Employment?
Robert E. Hall, R. A. Gordon, Charles Holt - Changing Labor Markets and Inflation
George L. Perry, Charles Schultze, Robert Solow, R. A. Gordon
- A Passive Balance-of-Payments Strategy for the United States
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Reports
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- Prices in 1970: The Horizontal Phillips Curve?
Robert J. Gordon - 1971: Economic Outlook and Uncertainties
Saul H. Hymans - Notes and Numbers on the Profits Squeeze
Arthur M. Okun, George L. Perry - FOMC Policy: 1970 and Beyond
John H. Kareken - Whiter Money Demand?
William Poole
- Prices in 1970: The Horizontal Phillips Curve?
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1970 No. 2
The first article of this issue, Saul Hymans studies the problems of explaining and predicting consumer demand for automobiles and other durable goods. The second article deals with the elusive and highly volatile area of inventory investment. The third article in this issue, William Branson distinguishes between the “new” and “old” views of international capital movements and develops the implications of the new view for monetary policy. Three shorter reports in this issue deal with fiscal policy, residential construction activity, and plant and equipment expenditures
Articles
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- Consumer Durable Spending: Explanation and Prediction
Saul H. Hymans, Gardner Ackley, F. Thomas Juster - Analyzing Inventory Investment
Barry Bosworth, James Duesenberry, Arthur M. Okun - Monetary Policy and the New View of International Capital Movements
William H. Branson, Lawrence Krause, John Kareken, Walter Salant - Gradualism: A Mid-Course View
William Poole, R. A. Gordon, David Fand
- Consumer Durable Spending: Explanation and Prediction
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Reports
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- Budgetary Outlook at Mid-Year 1970
Nancy H. Teeters - Recovery for Homebuilding?
Craig Swan - Revisions in Investment Anticipations
Charles W. Bischoff
- Budgetary Outlook at Mid-Year 1970
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1970 No. 1
The first article of this issue focuses attention on the 1969 acceleration of inflation and on prospective price-wage performance in 1970-75. The second article, Craig Swan analyzes the performance of homebuilding in 1969, comparing it with the experience of 1966 and drawing lessons for the future. Six shorter reports in this issue deal with sectors of the economy not covered by the three principal papers-consumer demand, plant and equipment expenditures, inventories, net exports, unemployment, and monetary policy.
Articles
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- The Recent Acceleration of Inflation and Its Lessons for the Future
Robert J. Gordon, Robert Solow, George Perry, R. J. Gordon - Homebuilding: A Review of Experience
Craig Swan, Sherman Maisel, William Branson - The Full Employment Surplus Revisited
Arthur M. Okun, Nancy H. Teeters, Warren Smith, R. A. Gordon
- The Recent Acceleration of Inflation and Its Lessons for the Future
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Reports
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- Consumption: New Data and Old Puzzles
Saul H. Hymans - Plant and Equipment Spending in 1969 and 1970
Charles W. Bischoff - Current Inventory-Sales Relationships
Barry Bosworth - U.S. Exports and Imports: Are We Tracking?
Lawrence B. Krause - Recent Increases in Unemployment
Robert E. Hall - Monetary Policy in 1969
John H. Kareken
- Consumption: New Data and Old Puzzles