\begin{table}[htbp]\centering \sisetup{table-format=1.2} \def\sym X 1{\ifmmode^{ X 1}\else\(^{ X 1}\)\fi}
\caption{Phillips Curve estimates}
\begin{tabularx}{\hsize}{@{\hskip\tabcolsep\extracolsep\fill}l*{2}{S}}
\hline\hline
& \multicolumn{2}{c}{Dependent variable: Inflation minus expected inflation $\pi_{t}-E_{t}\pi_{t+1}$}\\ \cmidrule(l{.75em}){2-3}
& \multicolumn{1}{c}{OLS} & \multicolumn{1}{c}{IV}\\
                    &\multicolumn{1}{L}{(1)}       &\multicolumn{1}{L}{(2)}       \\
\hline
 $\pi_{t-1}-E_{t}\pi_{t+1}$&        0.22       &        0.11       \\
                    &      (0.15)       &      (0.18)       \\
Output Gap          &        0.14$^{**}$&        0.13       \\
                    &     (0.053)       &     (0.091)       \\
\label{tab:phillips-curve-estimates-q4}
\\ \hline p-value: vertical PC&\multicolumn{1}{c}{0.38}       &\multicolumn{1}{c}{0.59}       \\
 F-statistic        &                   &\multicolumn{1}{c}{9.32}       \\
$ R^2$              &\multicolumn{1}{c}{0.18}       &\multicolumn{1}{c}{0.12}       \\
Observations        &\multicolumn{1}{c}{27}       &\multicolumn{1}{c}{24}       \\
\hline\hline \multicolumn{3}{l}{\begin{minipage}{\hsize} \rule{0pt}{9pt} \footnotesize Notes: Estimation of $ \pi_{t}-E_{t}\pi_{t+1} = \beta_{1}(\pi_{t-1}-E_{t}\pi_{t+1}) +\beta_{2}x_{t}+\epsilon_{t}$ using OLS and IV. Instruments are a lag of the output gap $ x_{t-1}$ and $ \pi_{t-1}-E_{t-1}\pi_{t+1}$. Testing for a vertical Phillips curve is the t-test on $\beta_{3}$ in the equation $ \pi_{t}-E_{t}\pi_{t+1} = \beta_{1}(\pi_{t-1}-E_{t}\pi_{t+1}) +\beta_{2}x_{t}+\beta_{3}E_{t}\pi_{t+1}+\epsilon_{t}$. Newey-West standard errors in parenthesis.  \end{minipage} }\\ \end{tabularx} \end{table}
