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\title{Readme File for Hausman and Wieland (2014), ``Abenomics:
  Preliminary Analysis and Outlook''} 

\date{25 April 2014}
\maketitle

\noindent This readme file describes what data and programs are used to produce
the figures, tables, and results discussed in Hausman and Wieland
(2014). Note that, as described in detail below, some results rely on
Bloomberg data and Consensus Economics data that we cannot publish online. 
\medskip

\noindent We have organized this readme file in the order in which the results
appear in the paper. 
\medskip

\noindent All stata programs are in Stata $->$ code. Stata output is
placed either in the Stata $->$ graph folder or the Stata $->$ table folder. To run the programs,
the user should first update the base path in paths.do and the initial
path line at the top of each program. All Matlab programs are in the Matlab folder.


\begin{enumerate}

\item Table 1 (Macro summary statistics): recent\_history\_table.xlsx
  (in the Tables folder), first tab ('tables 08-12 average').

\item Figure 1 (Japanese actual and potential output): Panel a: japan\_imf\_do; panel
  b: japan\_output\_gap.do. Note, this file uses forecasts from
  Consensus Economics.  Since we are not allowed to share this data, researchers will need
  to input this data by either (a) inputting data manually from
  Consensus Economics publications in many libraries or (b) purchase
  the data directly from Consensus Economics. This data needs to be
  inputted in the ``table'' sheet of annual\_real\_gdp.xlsx in the
  ``consensus\_2007\_growth'' column.

\item Figure 2 (Abenomics' financial market effects):
  japan\_fin\_final.do. Note that this requires
  data from Bloomberg. Thus in order to replicate this calculation,
  researchers will need access to Bloomberg or to an alternative
  source of data. By pasting data into the appropriate columns of the Bloomberg $->$ bloomberg20140415.xlsx file, researchers can immediately reproduce our figures.

\item UIP-PPP (Krugman 2013) measure of inflation expectations
  (discussed in the text and shown in figure 2, panel b): infe\_krugman\_2014.do. Note that this requires
  data from Bloomberg.

\item Table 2 (Announcement effects): japan\_fin\_final.do. Note that this requires
  data from Bloomberg. Thus in order to replicate this calculation,
  researchers will need access to Bloomberg or to an alternative
  source of data. 

\item Figure 3: panel a (Price level data): japan\_cpi\_final.do; panel b (Survey inflation forecasts):
  jp\_infe.do. This uses data from Consensus Economics which we cannot
  distribute. The Stata datasets with consensus forecast data are
  produced by the programs that make appendix tables 5 and 6. See their description below for details.

\item Figure 4 (Money growth during QE / Abenomics):
  japan\_qe\_final.do.

\item Figure 5(a) and 5(b) (quarterly growth and contributions in 2013): japan\_quart\_gdp\_final.do. \\
	Figure 5(c) (contributions to growth since 1995): japan\_na\_final.do. \\
	These files call on jp\_na\_setup\_final.do which converts the national account files (excel) in the Data/NA folder into Stata format.


\item Figure 6 (Evolution of forecasts for 2012, 2013, 2014 growth): japan\_cemon\_final.do. This file imports monthly Consensus forecast data from the excel-file ``japan extended.xls.'' Since we are not allowed to share this data, researchers will need
  to input this data by either (a) inputting data manually from
  Consensus Economics publications in many libraries or (b) purchase the data directly from Consensus Economics. This data needs to be inputted in the ``Annual'' sheet of the excel file.

\item Table 3 (Growth forecasts from autoregressive and VAR models): var\_forecasts2.do. This program documents
  the data sources used for the calculations. Note that the VAR models
  require data on the 10-year nominal interest rate which we obtained
  from Bloomberg. Thus in order to replicate this calculation,
  researchers will need access to Bloomberg or to an alternative
  source for data on the Japanese 10-year yield. 

\item 2012 AR / VAR model forecast: var\_forecasts\_2012.do.

\item Figure 7 (Actual and forecast output and consumption): japan\_celt\_final.do. This file imports long-run
  Consensus forecast data from the excel-file ``japan extended.xls.''
  Since we are not allowed to share this data, researchers will need
  to input this data by either (a) inputting data manually from
  Consensus Economics publications in many libraries or (b) purchase
  the data directly from Consensus Economics. This data needs to be
  inputted in the ``GDP LT'', ``Consumption LT'' and ``Consumer Prices
  LT'' sheets of the excel file.

\item Campbell-Shiller regressions: discount\_final.do.

\item Figure 8 (industrial production in the U.S. and Japan after FDR
  / Abe): fdr\_abe\_final.do. 

\item Interest-rate elasticity in Smets-Wouters model (section 4.4):
  run zlbirf\_final2.m in the Matlab/Smets-Wouters folder. The code requires Dynare to run, which can be downloaded for free at dynare.org. We have verified that it works with Dynare 4.2.2. The code may not run with other versions since the files produced by Dynare may be different.

\item Debt calculations in section 4.6: debt\_final.m.

\item Table 5 (Online Appendix A, quarterly forecast accuracy): japan\_cequart\_accuracy\_final.do. This file imports quarterly
  Consensus forecast data from the excel-file ``japan extended.xls.''
  Since we are not allowed to share this data, researchers will need
  to input this data by either (a) inputting data manually from
  Consensus Economics publications in many libraries or (b) purchase the data directly from Consensus Economics. This data needs to be inputted in the ``Consumer Prices'', ``GDP Q-o-Q'', ``Consumption Q-o-Q'' and ``Industrial Production'' sheets of the excel file.

\item Table 6 (Online Appendix A, annual forecast accuracy): japan\_ceannual\_accuracy\_pooled\_final.do. This file imports long-run
  Consensus forecast data from the excel-file ``japan extended.xls.''
  Since we are not allowed to share this data, researchers will need
  to input this data by either (a) inputting data manually from
  Consensus Economics publications in many libraries or (b) purchase the data directly from Consensus Economics. This data needs to be inputted in the ``Annual Consumer Prices'', ``Annual GDP'', ``Annual Consumption'' and ``Annual Industrial Production'' sheets of the excel file.

\item Table 7 (Online Appendix B, Two regime changes): dY\_dR.xlsx ('dr
  comparison only tab'), in the Tables folder, and (for the 1933 VAR results): annual\_var\_1933\_final. 



\end{enumerate}


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