Foreign Policy

The key dynamic, at least initially, will not be one of the external players jockeying for influence and control — but the Taliban and Kabul fighting it out. Each of these external players [China, Russia, Iran, India and Turkey] has some skin in the game and some moves up its sleeve. We've seen Turkey assert its role in recent days, and India change its tack and reportedly initiate discussions with the Taliban. Pakistan is perhaps in the strongest position, given its location and the history with the Taliban. Yet any role it plays will certainly be contested — by Kabul, by the Taliban, and by other players.

The Russians have effectively already declared war quite a long time ago in the information sphere. They’ve been trying to prove that they are a major cyber force — they want to create a wartime scenario so then they can sit down and agree some kind of truce with us.