Rising risks of conflict in the Horn of Africa

In the summer of 2021, Ethiopia was in the midst of a brutal civil war. Tigrayan forces advanced toward Addis Ababa after breaking a siege imposed by Ethiopian federal troops allied with Eritrean forces. Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki viewed the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) as an existential threat and joined forces to defeat it. But their alliance fractured after the 2022 Pretoria agreement ended the war in Tigray.

Today, each of the two former partners seems to view the other as his primary enemy. With tensions escalating, the risk of war between the neighbors is acute, and outside powers are poised to back opposing sides. Conflict prevention measures are urgently needed, yet international attention is absent. What is the history of the animosity between the two countries and the two leaders, who once came together for a historic reconciliation in 2019? As war rages in Sudan and uprisings flare in parts of Ethiopia, what would an Ethiopia-Eritrea conflict look like and what would the consequences be for international security and U.S. interests? How can the region and others build an off-ramp to prevent conflict?

On July 15, the Brookings Africa Security Initiative will bring together leading experts to examine the escalating crisis in the Horn of Africa, assess regional dynamics, and discuss the implications for U.S. policy.

Viewers can submit questions for speakers by emailing [email protected] or via Twitter @BrookingsFP using #HornSecurity2025.