Cover: Growth in a Time of Change


Growth in a Time of Change

Global and Country Perspectives on a New Agenda

Hyeon-Wook Kim, Zia Qureshi
Release Date: February 25, 2020

Growth in a Time of Change: Global and Country Perspectives on a New Agenda is the first of a two-book research project that addresses new issues and challenges for economic growth arising from ongoing significant change in the world economy, focusing especially on technological transformation. The project is a collaboration between the Brookings Institution and the Korea Development Institute.

Part I of the book looks at key elements of change from a global perspective. It analyzes how technological change, shifts in investment, and demographic transition are affecting potential economic growth globally and across major groups of economies. The contributors explore possible scenarios for the global economy as the digital revolution drives rapid technological change, including impacts on growth, jobs, income distribution, trade balances, and capital flows. Technology is changing the global configuration of comparative advantage and globalization increasingly has a digital dimension. The implications of these developments for the future of sectors such as manufacturing and for international trade are assessed.

Part II of the book addresses new issues in the growth agenda from the perspective of an individual major economy: South Korea. The chapters in this section analyze how macroeconomic developments and technological change are influencing the behavior of households and firms in terms of their decisions to consume, save, and invest. Rising income and wealth inequalities are a major concern globally. Against this backdrop, trends in the labor income share and wage inequalities in South Korea are analyzed in terms of the role played by technology, industrial concentration, shifts in labor demand and supply, and other factors.

Throughout the book, the contributors, in their analysis of both global and Korea-specific trends and prospects, place emphasis on drawing implications for policy.




Part I: The Changing Global Context for Growth

1. Technology, Change, and a New Growth Agenda
Zia Qureshi

2. Subdued Potential Growth: Sources and Remedies
Sinem Kilic Celik, M. Ayhan Kose, and Franziska Ohnsorge

3. Stagnation vs. Singularity: The Global Implications of Alternative Productivity Growth Scenarios
Warwick J. McKibbin and Adam Triggs

4. The Future of Global Manufacturing
Brahima Coulibaly and Karim Foda

5. The Digital Transformation of International Trade
Joshua P. Meltzer

Part II: Country Perspectives on a Changing Growth Agenda: Korea

6. A Shift in the Economic Policy Paradigm
Hyeon-Wook Kim

7. Growth and Distribution: No Longer Compatible with Each Other?
Youngsun Koh

8. Change in Labor Income Share in Korea: Findings from Firm-Level Data
Jiyoon Oh

9. Technological Change and the Rise of Corporate Saving: A Korean Case Study
Duksang Cho

10. Rise of Household Debt and Spending in Korea: Evidence and Policy Implications




Hyeon-Wook Kim is a Senior Fellow and Director of Macroeconomic Analysis and Forecasting at the Korea Development Institute and a Professor at the KDI School of Public Policy and Management. He previously worked at the Bank of Korea and in the private sector.

Zia Qureshi is a Visiting Fellow in the Global Economy and Development program at the Brookings Institution and an economic consultant. He previously worked at the IMF and the World Bank, including as Director in the Bank’s Development Economics Department.

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