The two youngest generations of Americans will continue to have an impact in the upcoming elections, just as they did in 2022. Aligned on values of freedom, opportunity, and inclusion, this generational cohort helped Democrats gain majority control of the U.S. Senate and limit what the experts said would be a “red wave” of Republican seats in the House of Representatives to a mere trickle. With less than a week to go in the 2024 presidential election, recent survey data suggests younger voters may again play a decisive role in determining who becomes the next president of the United States.
Last week, the Harvard Institute of Politics (IOP), which has been surveying voters ages 18 to 29 since 2008, released the results of its latest poll showing Vice President Kamala Harris with a 17-point lead over former President Donald Trump (49% to 32%) within that age group. Despite all the media conversation about the success Trump was said to be having in bringing young men over to the MAGA point of view, Harris also led Trump in the IOP survey by 14 points among men. Although this margin wasn’t as large as Harris’ 25-point lead among women 18 to 29, it is certainly substantial.
But it was ABC’s’ final pre-election survey which most clearly demonstrated the power of this new intergenerational alliance by publishing their results for voters 18 to 39 years of age, a cohort which encompasses almost all members of the Millennial and Pluralistic generations. Harris led among women by 34 points (66% to 32%) but trailed Trump among men of the same age by five points (51% to 46%), a lopsided gender gap of 39 points in total, far larger than the 22-point gender gap Biden generated in the 2020 election.
The IOP poll also found significant differences among younger voters depending on their level of educational attainment. Harris led 57% to 29% among current college students and 66% to 27% among those with a college degree. Among those who have no degree and are not currently in college, Harris led by only 41% to 36% with a quarter of these respondents saying they’re not sure how they’ll vote or that they won’t vote at all. Given that about 60% of college students and college graduates in this age range are women, it’s very likely that the non-students and non-graduates are disproportionately male.
Of course, these differences were documented by interviewing a random sample of registered voters. The ultimate determinant of who wins this year’s election may turn out to be who turns out (i.e., which demographic groups vote at higher rates than others). For instance, Elaine Kamarck found a different type of gender gap: Women usually comprise a larger share of the electorate than men. When multiplied by whatever voting preference gender gap the exit polls reveal, these two gender gaps might end up determining the outcome.
Fortunately, we already have some early indications of how the youngest generation of American voters, Plurals, are casting their ballots. IOP asked its respondents about their likelihood of voting. Of those Plurals who said they will definitely vote or who had already voted, Harris leads by almost 2:1 (62% to 34% with only four percent saying they were undecided). Among those who said they would probably vote or that there’s a 50/50 chance they would, the two candidates were essentially tied (38% Harris to 39% Trump) with 24% saying they weren’t likely to vote or are undecided how they will vote. Finally, among those who say they probably or definitely would not vote, 22% preferred Harris and 21% preferred Trump with a majority (57%) saying they aren’t likely to vote or are undecided how they will vote. These results suggest that Vice President Harris’ success may well rest with her campaign’s ability to turn out their vote between now and the end of voting on November 5.
However, as the campaign ends, there is one new element in Vice President Harris’ coalition that we did not consider in our original blog in 2023, which may end up giving her a critical new advantage in her quest for victory should young voter turnout fail to match ABC and IOP survey data estimates. While there was a lot written in 2020 about Biden’s appeal to older white men, particularly among union members, in the end, exit polls showed him losing senior citizens to Trump by five points, 47% to 52%. But ABC News’ final poll this year shows Harris winning voters over 65 years of age by five points, a swing of 10 points in the intervening four years, 51% to 46%. Some observers think this shift is driven by the “revenge of Boomer feminists” among the women of that famous generation, all of whom are now over 65 but who cut their political teeth in the battle for equality when they were much younger. For them, Vice President Harris’ election as president of the United States would be the ultimate vindication of their beliefs and a golden opportunity to ensure Trump’s attempts to roll back the clock on women’s rights and gender equality are not successful.
We will soon learn if the intergenerational alliance of Plurals and Millennials determines who the next president of the United States will be or if Boomer women, members of the largest generation in America older than Millennials, will also play a role in the country making its decision. Either way, Vice President Harris is the candidate most likely to benefit from a large turnout from either of these key generational voting blocs in America or both.
The Brookings Institution is committed to quality, independence, and impact.
We are supported by a diverse array of funders. In line with our values and policies, each Brookings publication represents the sole views of its author(s).
Commentary
Younger voters are poised to play their part in deciding this year’s election
October 30, 2024