Democrats’ hopes for maintaining control of the U.S. Senate hinge on what happens in Montana, where red-state Democrat Jon Tester is seeking reelection to a fourth term. With Senator Joe Manchin (I-W.Va.) not seeking reelection (and changing his party registration from Democrat to Independent to boot), Tester is the most vulnerable Democrat this cycle. While accustomed to tight races, this race will be his most difficult yet due to the Trump turnout effect, a hyper-nationalized electoral environment, and the rapidly shifting demographics in his state.
To say Tester is vulnerable is to understate the situation. It would be more accurate to say that he’s now an underdog. In September, Cook Political Report changed their rating of the race from “toss-up” to “leans Republican.” The change in outlook toward the race was precipitated by a series of polls suggesting Tester was falling behind his upstart Republican challenger. Shortly thereafter, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee announced new investments in long-shot races in Texas and Florida, seemingly desperate to give themselves a shot at maintaining their Senate majority as their Montana prospects faltered.
Team Tester would likely point to the fact that he has faced many difficult races before and prevailed in each instance. They wouldn’t be wrong—Tester unseated a popular incumbent in 2006, outperformed an unpopular (in Montana) Democratic president in 2012, and withstood Trump’s impassioned attempts to unseat him in 2018. In each of these three former races, he was rarely favored by prognosticators.
But this race is, without a doubt, his greatest challenge yet—a challenge that may prove insurmountable, even as Democratic dollars pour into the state (Montana’s is the most expensive Senate race per capita ever and a top three most expensive Senate race overall this year). As impressive as his electoral history is, Tester’s greatest political advantage—namely his strong personal political brand—may have finally met its kryptonite. Specifically, his reputation as a straight-shooting, authentic, and deeply rooted rural Montanan arguably matters less than ever in a highly nationalized electoral environment and in a Montana that has changed dramatically since his last run in 2018. Moreover, Tester has never had to contend with being on the same ballot as Trump, the former president who is much beloved in the Treasure State.
First, regarding nationalization, Montana is not immune to national trends that have caused heightened partisan rigidity in the electorate. Like virtually everywhere else, Montanans’ news diets don’t resemble at all what they did ten years ago. Local news outlets, which would have dedicated significant coverage to Tester’s work as a U.S. senator and to his campaign in previous decades, have withered away, and rates of ticket-splitting have plummeted as a result—an excruciating fact for Democrats in ever redder Big Sky Country. It’s difficult to shake the stereotypes associated with one’s national political party promulgated by national media outlets that have filled the void left by dying local media. And even someone with as strong a personal brand as Tester can’t push back against nationalization if there isn’t a robust state and local media edifice in which to do so—political ads can only take one so far.
Second, as great a weight upon Team Tester’s shoulders as nationalization is, Montana’s changing demographics are equally as important. Montana was one of the fastest-growing states in the country between 2010 and 2020, which earned the state an additional seat in the U.S. House of Representatives. Since 2020, the state’s population has continued to shoot upward, a trend driven in large part by an influx of folks moving to Montana from other states. Unfortunately for Tester and other Montana Democrats, the folks moving into the state, many of whom are so-called “political refugees” fleeing more liberal states like California, support Republicans at substantially higher rates than Democrats—a fact gloated by prominent Montana Republicans. Such an influx matters in a state with such a small population (just north of one million people). To be sure, the influx has caused a number of problems—including skyrocketing housing prices—and roiled Montana politics, but it seems doubtful that native Montanans will see these problems as a reason to vote for Tester and other Democrats. At the end of the day, even if Tester could successfully get his message out to voters, the proportion of the Montana electorate with whom his folksy, place-based, “third-generation rural Montana dirt farmer” schtick resonates is surely smaller than ever.
Third, it’s also worth briefly mentioning that Trump being on the ballot works against Tester. Trump is much beloved in Montana and a turnout machine. Like in many other states, Democrats in Montana benefit when turnout is low, and turnout will surely be anything but with the former president at the top of the GOP ticket.
Lastly, I want to recognize the proverbial elephant in the room: To this point, I haven’t said anything about Tester’s Republican opponent, Tim Sheehy. This is not an oversight on my part, nor is it intended as a slight toward the political newcomer. In a very real sense, the comparatively small importance of his opponent strikes at the very heart of what this race is about. To be sure, Sheehy is a solid candidate—young, handsome, rich enough to self-fund, and a former Navy SEAL (which gives him an edge in a state where nearly one in 10 voters is a veteran and helps nullify an advantage Tester has long enjoyed in light of his long-time status as chair/ranking member of the Senate Veteran Affairs Committee). But, if Tester loses, it won’t be because of Sheehy. Rather, it’ll be because the political landscape, as well as the very Montana he has dutifully represented in the U.S. Senate for three terms, are virtually unrecognizable from when he first ran for U.S. Senate less than 20 years ago.
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Commentary
Tester faces an uphill battle in pivotal Senate race
October 29, 2024