Trans-Atlantic Scorecard — January 2022

Welcome to the fourteenth edition of the Trans-Atlantic Scorecard, a quarterly evaluation of U.S.-European relations produced by Brookings’s Center on the United States and Europe (CUSE). To produce the Scorecard, we poll Brookings scholars and other experts on the present state of U.S. relations with Europe — overall and in the political, security, and economic dimensions — as well as on the state of U.S. relations with five key countries and the European Union itself. We also ask about several major issues in the news. The poll for this edition of the survey was conducted from January 11 to January 14, 2022. The experts’ analyses are complemented by a timeline of significant moments over the previous three calendar months and a snapshot of the relationship, including figures presenting data relevant to the relationship and CUSE Director Thomas Wright’s take on what to watch in the coming months.

October

October 2

In local elections in Georgia, the governing Georgian Dream party won 46.7 percent and the United National Movement (UNM) came in second with 30.7 percent, compared to their respective results of 55.8 percent and 17.08 percent in 2017. The Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) described the elections as “generally well-administered but held against the backdrop of a protracted political crisis and characterized by hardened polarization.” A day prior, UNM founder and former Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili had returned to Georgia from exile in Ukraine to campaign for UNM and was immediately detained upon arrival due to a 2018 indictment for abuse of power in office.

October 3

The International Consortium of Investigative Journalists released millions of leaked documents, known as the “Pandora Papers,” which reveal hidden offshore tax havens of hundreds of current and former world leaders, politicians, and public officials.

October 4

The European Medicines Agency (EMA), the drug regulator of the European Union (EU),  approved a third dose of the Pfizer COVID-19 vaccine for all adults. Over a month later, on November 19, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) would make a similar announcement, authorizing  use of a booster dose of both the Moderna and Pfizer vaccines for all adults.

October 5

Romanian Prime Minister Florin Citu and his government were ousted after losing a no confidence vote in parliament. The motion against Prime Minister Citu, a member of the center-right National Liberal Party (PNL), was filed by the opposition Social Democrat Party (PSD) and supported by both the far-right AUR party and progressive USR-Plus, a former coalition partner of the PNL. The USR removed its ministers from the coalition government following disputes on justice reforms and a local development spending proposal. PNL member Nicolae Ciucă would be elected to replace Citu on November 25 after her party and PSD agreed to form a coalition.

October 5

Ahead of the Western Balkans summit in Slovenia on October 6, EU leaders met for a working dinner to “have a strategic discussion on the role of the Union on the international stage,” particularly following the “recent developments in Afghanistan,” the fallout due to the announcement of the AUKUS security pact, and the “evolution” of the EU’s relations with China.

October 6

EU leaders held a summit in Slovenia with their counterparts from the six Western Balkan partners – Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, North Macedonia, Montenegro, Kosovo, and Serbia – to discuss the prospects of Western Balkan accession to the EU. In a declaration following the summit, the EU reconfirmed its “commitment to the enlargement process” and agreed to “further intensify our joint engagement to take forward the region’s political, economic, and social transformation.”

October 6

Following the September 26 elections, the German Social Democratic Party (SPD), Green Party, and Free Democratic Party (FDP) agreed to launch coalition talks – the first step toward a new government in the post-Merkel era.

October 7

In an escalation of Warsaw’s clash with Brussels, Poland’s Constitutional Tribunal ruled that Poland’s constitution takes precedence over certain EU laws. In response, the European Commission stated that it “will not hesitate to make use of its powers under the Treaties to safeguard the uniform application and integrity of Union law.”

October 7

Armin Laschet, leader and chancellor candidate of Germany’s Christian Democratic Union (CDU), announced he would step down as party head after record losses in the September 26 elections.

October 9

The Republic of Cyprus issued a warning to Turkey not to conduct fossil fuel research in a portion of Cyprus’s exclusive economic zone in the Eastern Mediterranean. U.S. Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman Bob Menendez described Turkey as “undermining stability” in the region, and noted that “[t]he US must stand with Cyprus, and the EU should also fully support the vital interests of one of its member states.”

October 9

The Czech Republic held parliamentary elections, with the three-party, center-right Spolu (“Together”) coalition winning 27.8 percent of the vote and Prime Minister Andrej Babiš’ centrist ANO party placing second with 27.1 percent. In 2017, ANO had won with 29.6 percent of the vote, while the center-right, Eurosceptic ODS (the Civic Democratic Party) came in second with 11.3 percent.

October 10

Austrian Chancellor Sebastian Kurz resigned amid charges of corruption. Despite initially intending to remain a member of parliament and head the Austrian People’s Party (ÖVP) parliamentary group, Kurz subsequently announced his resignation from politics altogether on December 2. Alexander Schallenberg, Austria’s foreign minister under Kurz, also from the ÖVP, was sworn in as the new chancellor, but shortly thereafter announced his resignation too. Schallenberg said he never intended to become the ÖVP’s leader and believed that the head of government and party leader should “quickly be reunited [under one individual].” On December 3, the ÖVP named Interior Minister Karl Nehammer as Schallenberg’s successor.

October 12

The 23rd summit between the EU and Ukraine took place in Kyiv, Ukraine. Following the summit, both sides reaffirmed their “strong commitment to further strengthening the political association and economic integration of Ukraine with the European Union,” “acknowledged the European aspirations of Ukraine and welcomed its European choice,” and promised to offer updates on Ukraine’s progress toward EU accession at the 2022 bilateral summit in Brussels.

October 13

The European Commission and European External Action Service (EEAS) revealed the new EU policy for the Arctic, according to which the bloc “will further strengthen its engagement in the region, working with partners to ensure a peaceful, sustainable and prosperous Arctic.” The policy also announced plans to establish an EU office in Nuuk, Greenland.

October 14

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Greek Foreign Minister Nikos Dendias signed an amendment to the U.S.-Greece Mutual Defense Cooperation Agreement, which “deepens and expands on [U.S.-Greece] partnership to maintain strong, capable, and interoperable militaries.” According to Foreign Minister Dendias, the amendment “opene[ed] new prospects for deepening the strategic relationship – rooted in shared values and principles – between Greece and the United States.”

October 14

Poland’s parliament approved plans to build a $350 million border wall in response to the ongoing migrant crisis at the Belarusian borders of Lithuania, Latvia, and Poland. Thousands of migrants, mostly from Iraq, have been lured to Belarus by the Lukashenko regime with the promise of easy entry into the EU, in what European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen called the “instrumentalization of migrants for political purposes.” Poland’s decision to build a wall came after reports of a sixth migrant death on the Poland-Belarus border and the publication of a letter to the Vice-President of the European Commission Margaritis Schinas and European Commissioner for Home Affairs Ylva Johansson, from Slovenia’s Minister of the Interior and co-signed by 12 EU member states – Austria, Bulgaria, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Greece, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, and Slovakia – calling for the EU to finance enhanced border protection.

October 17

Péter Márki-Zay, the conservative mayor of the southern Hungarian city of Hódmezővásárhely, won a combined primary election of six opposition parties to become the joint prime minister candidate for the Hungarian opposition. Márki-Zay and the opposition will face off against Prime Minister Viktor Orbán and his ruling Fidesz party in the spring 2022 election.

October 18

In response to the expulsion of eight Russian officials from the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) headquarters in Brussels on suspicion that they were working as Russian intelligence officers, Sergei Lavrov, Russia’s foreign minister, announced the suspension of the Russian mission to NATO and ordered the closure of NATO’s Moscow office.

October 18

Amid a spike in COVID-19 infections, Latvia announced a four-week lockdown from October 21 to November 15. Latvia was the first European country to reimpose a COVID-19 lockdown in the fall.

October 20

The European Parliament awarded Alexei Navalny, jailed critic of Russian President Vladimir Putin and leading opposition figure, the annual Sakharov Prize for Freedom of Thought.

October 21

EU leaders met in Brussels for a two-day summit to discuss “COVID-19, energy prices, trade and external relations” and hold a “debate on the rule of law.” It was Angela Merkel’s 107th and last EU summit as German chancellor. NATO defense ministers also convened in Brussels for a two-day summit. The group released its first-ever strategy for Artificial Intelligence, endorsed its 2021-2025 Action Plan on Women, Peace, and Security, and began preparations for the June 2022 NATO Summit in Madrid.

October 21

Following the July decision by 130 countries to institute a global minimum tax, the United States reached a deal with Austria, France, Italy, Spain, and the United Kingdom to withdraw their domestic digital taxes.

October 23

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan ordered ten ambassadors – of the US, Canada, New Zealand, and seven European countries – to be declared “persona non grata” after the group issued a joint statement calling for the release of Turkish businessperson Osman Kavala. Erdoğan announced two days later that he would back down on the threat to expel the ambassadors.

October 25

More than a year and a half after the January and March 2020 decisions by the Trump administration to ban travel from certain countries into the United States, the White House released a “Proclamation on Advancing the Safe Resumption of Global Travel During the COVID-19 Pandemic,” announcing that non-immigrant travel to the U.S. from 33 countries would resume on November 8. The new policy required travelers to demonstrate full vaccination against COVID-19 from an FDA- or World Health Organization (WHO) authorized vaccine, although exemptions would be made for individuals from countries where less than 10% of the population is fully vaccinated.

October 27

The European Court of Justice (ECJ) began the imposition of a daily fine of 1,000,000 euros on Poland for not complying with a July EU court mandate requiring Poland to dismantle disciplinary chambers for the Polish Supreme Court. The ECJ had determined that the chamber, designed to discipline judges, was neither fully impartial in its rulings nor shielded from the “direct or indirect influence of the Polish legislature and executive.”

October 29

At the G20 Summit in Rome, leaders agreed to uphold the “goal of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees,” achieve carbon neutrality “by or around mid-century,” and “establish a G20 Joint Finance-Health Task Force to ensure adequate financing of pandemic prevention, preparedness and response.”

October 29

For the first time since the announcement of the AUKUS security pact, President Biden met with French President Emmanuel Macron on the margins of the G20 Summit, and the two affirmed the “importance of stronger and interoperable defense industrial bases in Europe and in the United States, which will deliver better military capabilities, to the benefit of the Alliance.”

October 31

The Biden administration reached a deal with the EU to ease tariffs in exchange for the elimination of European retaliatory tariffs on a wide range of U.S. industries, originally imposed after a March 2018 decision by the Trump administration to levy harsh tariffs on aluminum and steel. Both sides also agreed to withdraw their respective trade complaints at the World Trade Organization (WTO).

October 31

The 26th UN Climate Change Conference (COP 26) took place in Glasgow, Scotland. On November 2, the United States and European Union officially launched the “Global Methane Pledge,” which commits to a “collective goal of reducing global methane emissions by at least 30 percent from 2020 levels by 2030.”

November

November 1

Commercial satellite images confirmed Russian troop buildups on the border of Ukraine. On the same day, Pentagon Press Secretary John Kirby said that the US was “aware of public reports of unusual Russian military activity near Ukraine” and that Washington would “continue to consult with allies and partners on this issue.”

November 2

Seven members of European Parliament (MEPs) traveled to Taiwan, the parliament’s first official delegation to do so. French MEP and member of Place Publique Raphaël Glucksmann – who was sanctioned by Beijing in March 2021 – led the group. The visit followed an October 29 trip by Taiwan’s Foreign Minister Joseph Wu to Brussels to meet MEPs, and the European Parliament’s adoption of the first report on “EU-Taiwan political relations and cooperation.” China’s Mission to the EU noted this visit would “undermine the healthy development of China-EU relations.”

November 2

U.S. Special Presidential Envoy for Climate John Kerry and Romanian President Klaus Iohannis announced Romania’s plan to construct a “first-of-a-kind” U.S. small modular reactor plant. A State Department media release noted, “[t]his multi-billion-dollar effort showcases U.S. ingenuity” and “strengthens European energy security.”

November 2

President Biden, European Commission President von der Leyen, and British Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced a joint “Commitment to Addressing Climate Crisis Through Infrastructure Development,” endorsing five key principles, including developing infrastructure “through a climate lens,” financing infrastructure “in accordance with high standards,” and a “new paradigm of climate finance.”

November 3

Angela Merkel paid her last visit to France as Chancellor of Germany, where President Macron awarded her the Grand Cross, the highest award of the French Legion of Honor.

November 3

Following the Portuguese Parliament’s rejection of the minority Socialist government’s budget plan, President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa’s proposal to dissolve parliament was approved by the Portuguese Council of State, initiating the process for a snap election, scheduled to take place on January 30, 2022.

November 8

U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris arrived in Paris for a five-day trip to attend the Paris Peace Forum, participate in a high-level meeting on the Paris Agenda for Technology and the Digital Domain, attend the Paris Conference on Libya, and to commemorate Armistice Day. Vice President Harris also met with French President Emmanuel Macron. Following their meeting, Harris announced a number of U.S.-French initiatives, including on space and cybersecurity. Harris also “reinforced the United States’ commitment to continue deepening coordination and cooperation across a range of global challenges” with France, “from transatlantic security to the Indo-Pacific to the Sahel.”

November 9

Following the Spolu coalition’s victory in October parliamentary elections, Czech President Miloš Zeman requested that the leader of the coalition, Petr Fiala, head the formation of a new government. On November 28, President Zeman, sitting inside a glass box due to a recent coronavirus diagnosis, appointed Fiala as prime minister.

November 10

U.S. Secretary of State Blinken and Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba signed the “U.S.-Ukraine Charter on Strategic Partnership,” replacing the 2008 U.S.-Ukraine Charter on Strategic Partnership. In addition to noting that United States and Ukraine share a “determination to deepen [their] strategic partnership by expanding bilateral cooperation in political, security, defense, development, economic, energy, scientific, educational, cultural, and humanitarian spheres,” the Charter “underline[d] the importance of close cooperation within international institutions, including the United Nations, the OSCE and the Council of Europe, and intend to multiply efforts in finding new approaches and developing joint actions in preventing individual states from trying to destroy the rule-based international order and forcefully to revise internationally recognized state borders.”

November 10

Almost three months after announcing his intent to resign on August 22 “to give [his] successor the very best conditions” for the 2022 general elections, Swedish Prime Minister and head of the Swedish Social Democratic party Stefan Löfven formally stepped down. Two weeks later, on November 24, he was replaced by former Social Democrat Finance Minister Magdalena Andersson, Sweden’s first female prime minister. Prime Minister Andersson resigned hours later after failing to pass her budget proposal through parliament, but was reinstated on November 29.

November 12

EU Commissioner for Competition Margrethe Vestager delivered a speech at the Katholieke Universiteit Leuven in which she stressed “the importance of trustworthy transatlantic supply chains for our economies and for our partnership.” Vestager outlined four main principles in her speech behind “strong partnerships for resilient supply chains”: transparency, open markets, avoiding a subsidy race, and trust.

November 14

Bulgaria held its third parliamentary election in a year. The anti-corruption We Continue the Change party – founded by political newcomer Kiril Petkov and caretaker Finance Minister Assen Vassilev – won 26.3 percent of the vote, while the center-right GERB party placed second with 23.2 percent. On December 13, Petkov was elected prime minister, ending the twelve-year rule of GERB leader Boyko Borisov.

November 14

U.S. Secretary of State Blinken described “reports of Russian military activity in and near Ukraine” as “concerning” on a call with French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian. According to one senior Biden administration official, Vice President Harris had also discussed the situation “extensively” with French President Emmanuel Macron during her trip to Paris.

November 15

Russia conducted an anti-satellite missile test against a live satellite target in outer space. The State Department labeled the test “dangerous and irresponsible,” and Thierry Breton, European Commissioner for Space, “join[ed] the strongest condemnations expressed against the test” two days later.

November 15

Convening on the sidelines of the Eastern Partnership Foreign Ministers’ Meeting, the Foreign Ministers of Germany, France, and Ukraine met to revive the Normandy Format, despite Russia’s absence. In a joint statement, the ministers called on “Russia to adopt a posture of restraint and provide transparent information about its military activities” near Ukraine and warned that “[a]ny new attempt to undermine Ukraine’s territorial integrity would have serious consequences.”

November 16

The Bundesnetzagentur, Germany’s national energy regulator, suspended the certification procedure of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline after it was determined that the Swiss-based Nord Stream 2 AG (NS2 AG), the company which owns and operates the pipeline, was not in compliance with German law. The pipeline will remain suspended until NS2 AG forms a German-based company to own and operate the German portion of the project.

November 18

G7 foreign ministers and the EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Josep Borrell released a joint statement on the situation in Belarus, “condemn[ing] the Belarus regime’s orchestration of irregular migration across its borders,” and noting that “[w]e are united in our solidarity with Poland, as well as Lithuania and Latvia, who have been targeted by this provocative use of irregular migration as a hybrid tactic.”

November 18

Amid “concerns about Russia’s destabilizing activities,” U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin met with Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov at the Pentagon. Secretary Austin reassured Reznikov that the U.S.’s “support for Ukraine’s’ self-defense, sovereignty, and territorial integrity is unwavering” and that the United States “remain[s] committed to supporting Ukraine’s’ efforts to implement deep and comprehensive reforms in its defense sector,” work that is “key to Ukraine achieving its Euro-Atlantic aspirations.”

November 19

Following a record-breaking surge in coronavirus infections and hospitalizations, Austria became the first European country to impose compulsory COVID-19 vaccination for its entire population (ages 14 and older), with the mandate set to begin in February 2022. In addition to an ongoing home confinement order, Austrians who remain unvaccinated and are not granted an exemption and will face a quarterly fine of 3600 euros.

November 21

After the opening of a Taiwanese representative office in Vilnius, China downgraded its diplomatic relations with Lithuania “to the chargé d’affaires level,” the latest development in an ongoing dispute between Beijing and Vilnius since the opening of a Lithuanian diplomatic office in Taiwan in August 2021.

November 22

The Biden administration announced the imposition of further sanctions in connection to Nord Stream 2. The sanctions target “two vessels and one Russia-linked entity, Transadria Ltd.” The State Department clarified that “[e]ven as the Administration continues to oppose the Nord Stream 2 pipeline… we continue to work with Germany and other allies and partners to reduce the risks posed by the pipeline to Ukraine and frontline NATO and EU countries and to push back against harmful Russian activities, including in the energy sphere.”

November 24

The German SPD, Green Party, and FDP presented their final coalition treaty, paving the way for Germany’s first three-party coalition at the federal level, and the replacement of Angela Merkel as chancellor by former Finance Minister Olaf Scholz.

November 25

The United Kingdom introduced “new precautionary travel restrictions” for six African countries due to the discovery of a new COVID-19 variant, labeled Omicron. A day later, the United States introduced similar measures for eight countries in southern Africa.

November 26

France and Italy signed a new friendship treaty – dubbed the Quirinale Treaty after the Italian palace where the signing ceremonies took place – to bolster bilateral cooperation in twelve separate areas, including defense, culture, and education.

November 29

Belarus announced joint military exercises with Russia on the Belarus-Ukraine border to take place in the “medium term.” Three weeks later, two Russian long-range bomber planes performed patrols in Belarusian airspace, “solving joint tasks” with Belarusian aviation and air defense forces. On the build-up of Russian troops on the Ukrainian border, Belarus leader Alexander Lukashenko blamed Ukraine for instigating the crisis and indicated full support for Russia, stating “if [Ukraine] tr[ies] to launch a small war in Donbas or somewhere on the border with Russia, Belarus will not stay aside, and it’s clear whose side it will take.”

November 30

U.S. Secretary of Defense Austin and Polish Minister of National Defense Mariusz Błaszczak discussed “ways to enhance deterrence along NATO’s Eastern Flank” in response to both “the Belarus regime’s hybrid tactics along Poland’s border” and “Russia’s military activities around Ukraine.” Secretary Austin also “underscored the United States’ enduring commitment to the [NATO] Alliance and to our strong defense relationship with Poland.”

November 30

Following meetings of NATO foreign ministers in Riga, Latvia and in response to Russian troop buildups on the border of Ukraine, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg warned that “any future Russian aggression against Ukraine would come at a high price.” Russian President Putin said that NATO deploying weapons or soldiers to Ukraine would constitute a “red line.”

December

December 1

The European Commission and the EU High Representative Borrell launched the Global Gateway, Europe’s new strategy to mobilize up to €300 billion to “boost smart, clean and secure links in digital, energy and transport and strengthen health, education and research systems across the world.”

December 1

Building on President Biden and Turkish President Erdoğan’s discussion at the G20 Summit in Rome, U.S. Secretary of State Blinken met with Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Vavusoglu on the margins of the NATO Foreign Ministerial to discuss “Russia’s aggression against Ukraine and the situation in Armenia and Azerbaijan as well as Afghanistan.” The two also discussed “the crisis in Ethiopia and joint efforts aimed at maintaining stability in the Black Sea region.”

December 2

U.S. Secretary of State Blinken and Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov held a bilateral exchange in Stockholm. In the meeting, Secretary Blinken “made clear that the United States and [its] allies are prepared to impose significant costs” should Moscow choose military escalation in Ukraine. Blinken and Lavrov also discussed the Caucasus and the “importance of continued coordination on issues in the bilateral relationship and where interests are aligned,” such as blocking Iran’s access to a nuclear weapon.

December 2

U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman and EEAS Secretary General Stefano Sannino held the second high-level meeting of the EU-U.S. dialogue on China in Washington, DC. The two discussed the “growing list of China’s actions that are of concern,” including human rights abuses and violations, democratic erosion in Hong Kong, and disinformation “sponsored or supported by China.” [Watch our event with Deputy Secretary Sherman and Secretary General Sannino: US-EU Cooperation in the Indo-Pacific]

December 2

The United States, Canada, the European Union, and the United Kingdom announced additional rounds of sanctions against the Lukashenko regime “in response to the continuing attacks on human rights and fundamental freedoms in Belarus” and demanded that the regime “immediately and completely halt its orchestrating of irregular migration across its borders with the EU.” According to a European Union statement, “EU restrictive measures on Belarus now apply to a total of 183 individuals and 26 entities.” These sanctions followed a November 2021 decision by the European Commission amending the “criteria on which specific [sanctions] designations can be based,” allowing the EU to target both organizers and contributors to “activities that facilitate illegal crossing of the EU’s external borders.”

December 3

The Washington Post released a declassified U.S. intelligence document outlining Russian plans to conduct a multi-front offensive into Ukraine as early as 2022 with up to 175,000 troops. Additionally, U.S. intelligence found heightened levels of Russian disinformation about Ukraine and NATO in recent months, “in part to pin the blame for a potential Russian military escalation on Ukraine,” according to one U.S. administration official.

December 3

U.S. Secretary of State Blinken and EU High Representative Borrell announced the “launch of a U.S.-EU dialogue on security and defense,” which will first convene in early 2022 to “pursue closer cooperation in the fields of security and defense.” The two officials also noted their commitment to “continue working jointly to raise the level of ambition for NATO-EU cooperation.”

December 4

Valérie Pécresse defeated Éric Ciotti of Les Républicains’ right wing to become the center-right party’s candidate for the April 2022 French presidential elections. Pécresse is president of the Regional Council of the Île-de-France, former Minister of Higher Education and Research, Minister of Budget, and Government Spokeswoman under President Nicolas Sarkozy, and the first woman to ever win the party’s nomination.

December 6

The White House announced a diplomatic boycott of the 2022 Winter Olympics in Beijing “given the PRC’s ongoing genocide and crimes against humanity in Xinjiang and other human rights abuses.” While Australia, Canada, Lithuania, Japan, and the U.K. also announced diplomatic boycotts of their own, the EU did not follow suit, with EEAS Secretary General Stefano Sannino noting that the boycott is not “one of the elements in which we will try to move the 27 [EU member states] together.” French President Macron described the diplomatic boycott as “insignificant” and “merely symbolic.”

December 7

President Biden spoke with Russian President Putin via video call about a range of issues, including “Russia’s escalation of forces surrounding Ukraine.” The two also discussed the U.S.-Russia dialogue on Strategic Stability, a dialogue on ransomware, and joint work on regional issues, including Iran. Before and after his conversation with President Putin, President Biden spoke with French President Macron, German Chancellor Merkel, Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi, and U.K. Prime Minister Johnson. Ahead of Biden’s meeting with Putin, the five heads of state had “called on Russia to de-escalate tensions and agreed that diplomacy, especially through the Normandy Format, is the only way forward to resolve the conflict in Donbas through the implantation of the Minsk Agreements.”

December 7

In a press conference following President Biden’s call with President Putin, U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan described the Nord Stream 2 pipeline as “leverage for the West,” stating “if Vladimir Putin wants to see gas flow through that pipeline, he may not want to take the risk of invading Ukraine.” Sullivan also noted that the United States would “provide additional defensive materiel to the Ukrainians above and beyond” what the U.S. is already providing, should Russia launch a further military incursion into Russia Ukraine. Pentagon Press Secretary Kirby echoed Sullivan’s comments, stating “we are certainly keeping on the table the potential for additional security assistance, should that be required.” Finally, he expressed that the United States “believe[s] that there should be an alternative pathway by which [it] can make progress on diplomacy in the Donbas,” addressing both NATO and Russian security concerns, “through a larger mechanism consistent with the way we’ve operated over the course of the past 30 years.”

December 7

European Commissioner for Competition Vestager and U.S. Federal Trade Commission Chair Lina Khan met in Washington to launch the EU-U.S. Joint Technology Competition Policy Dialogue. The dialogue, created “in parallel to the launch of the EU-U.S. Trade and Technology Council,” will focus on “developing common approached and strengthening the cooperation on competition policy and enforcement in the technology sector.”

December 8

The new German coalition government, including the SPD’s Olaf Scholz, officially took office, marking the end of Merkel’s 16 years as chancellor of Germany.

December 8

President Biden announced that plans were underway for the United States and “at least four of [its] major NATO Allies and Russia” to discuss “whether or not [they] can work out any accommodations” related to “the future of Russia’s concerns relative to NATO writ large.”

December 9

Two days after his video call with Russian President Putin, President Biden reaffirmed to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky “that the U.S. and [its] Allies would respond with strong economic and other measures in the event of a further [Russian] military intervention.” Biden also “made clear that the United States and its allies and partners are committed to the principle of ‘no decisions or discussions about Ukraine without Ukraine.’”

December 9

In the face of “Russia’s destabilizing military buildup along Ukraine’s border,” President Biden held a call with the Bucharest Nine (B9) group of eastern flank NATO Allies (Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, and Slovakia). In the call, Biden “underscore[d] the United States’ commitment to Transatlantic security and [its] sacred commitment to NATO’s Article 5.” The leaders also discussed “the need for a united, ready, and resolute NATO stance for the collective defense of Allies” and President Biden “stressed the U.S. commitment to continued close consultation and coordination with all [its] Transatlantic Allies and partners.”

December 9

Deputy Under Secretary of Defense for Policy Dr. Mara Karlin discussed Russian aggression toward Ukraine with Swedish Defense Policy Director Johan Lagerlöf and Finnish Deputy Director General for Defense Policy Janne Kuusela. The three “underscored the importance of security and stability in the Nordic and Baltic region.”

December 9

The two-day Summit for Democracy, hosted by the United States, took place virtually. EU member state Hungary was not invited to participate, prompting Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán to veto a common EU presence at the summit. Despite this, EU Commission President von der Leyen chaired a Leaders’ Session at the Summit, where she announced the launch of the 1.5 billion euro Global Europe Human Rights and Democracy program, to become “the EU’s flagship tool for action to advance human rights and democracy.”

December 9

French President Macron announced his priorities for France’s Presidency of the Council of the European Union from January to June 2022. In a two-hour-long speech, he expressed his ambitions for a more sovereign Europe, including new growth models on industrial policy and climate.

December 11

Amid a dispute with France over fishing rights in Britain’s territorial waters, the United Kingdom issued 23 extra licenses to French boats after a thread of French protests and threats from Paris to take EU legal action against the U.K. The European Commission called the U.K.’s decision to issue additional licenses “an important step in a long process seeking full implementation of the Trade and Cooperation Agreement” between the EU and the U.K.

December 12

The G7 foreign ministers and EU High Representative Borrell released a statement on Russia and Ukraine during a summit for foreign and development ministers in Liverpool. The statement noted that “[a]ny use of force to change borders is strictly prohibited under international law. Russia should be in no doubt that further military aggression against Ukraine would have massive consequences and severe cost in response.”

December 13

The EU imposed a set of restrictive measures against the Wagner Group, an “unincorporated private military entity” based in Russia. In a press statement, the U.S. State Department “welcomed” the sanctions, and “applaud[ed] the EU for its commitment to promoting respect for human rights around the world” through its actions.

December 13

Four parties reached a coalition agreement in the Netherlands, clearing the way for current Prime Minister Mark Rutte to serve a fourth term. This agreement would make Rutte the longest-serving prime minister in the country’s history.

December 13

U.S. Secretary of Defense Austin met with Lithuanian Minister of National Defense Dr. Arvydas Anušauskas to discuss “Russia’s destabilizing actions in eastern Europe” and “further deepening of long-standing defense ties between the United States and Lithuania,” among other issues. They also signed a Reciprocal Defense Procurement Agreement to “improve conditions for mutual industrial cooperation,” as well as the obtaining of defense materials and “increased interoperability” between Lithuanian and U.S. military forces.

December 13

Sharing their concerns on a call “about Russia’s destabilizing military buildup along Ukraine’s border,” President Biden and President of Finland Sauli Niinistö discussed “the importance of transatlantic efforts to de-escalate the situation.”

December 14

Secretary of State Blinken delivered a speech in Indonesia titled “A Free and Open Indo-Pacific.” In the speech, he noted that “[the United States] will work to connect our relationships in the Indo-Pacific with an unmatched system of alliances and partnerships beyond the region, particularly in Europe.” Blinken mentioned that the EU’s Indo-Pacific strategy “aligns closely with our own vision.”

December 14

Sergei Tsikhanousky, former Belarusian presidential candidate and the husband of opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, was sentenced to 18 years in prison by a Belarusian court for “organizing mass unrest and inciting social hatred.” Five of Tsikhanousky’s supporters were also sentenced to prison, with terms ranging from 14 to 16 years. The State Department released a press statement noting that “[t]he United States condemns [the] politically motivated convictions of Belarusian opposition figures,” and the US “reiterates [its] call for the Lukashenka regime to end its crackdown on members of civil society, independent media, the political opposition, athletes, students, legal professionals, and other Belarusians.”

December 14

The United Kingdom, United States, and Australia completed the inaugural meetings of the AUKUS Trilateral Joint Steering groups. On December 9, participants in the Joint Steering Group for Advanced Capabilities meeting “identified opportunities for collaboration on a range of critical capabilities and technologies [and] committed to significantly deepen cooperation and enhance interoperability, and in so doing strengthen security and stability in the Indo-Pacific region and beyond.” On December 14, leaders “reaffirmed the trilateral commitment to bring the Australian capability into service at the earliest possible date.”

December 14

Italy announced that travelers arriving from EU member states must provide proof of a negative coronavirus test, regardless of vaccination status. Vaccinated travelers must present the negative result in addition to their digital vaccination certificate, while unvaccinated individuals with a negative result must still quarantine. French President Macron and German Chancellor Scholz, in a joint press conference on December 17, voiced opposition to mandatory testing between EU member states.

December 15

In response to both Russia’s troop buildup on its border with Ukraine and President Biden’s meeting with Russian President Putin, Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas noted that Putin “is trying to present himself as a solution to this problem that he has created himself,” and warned fellow EU and NATO members not to “fall into that trap.” Two weeks prior, on December 6, Deputy Under Secretary of Defense for Policy Karlin discussed “defense cooperation and regional security issues” and “Russia’s military buildup near the Ukrainian border” with Estonian Under Secretary for Defense Planning Tiina Uudeberg.

December 15

European Council President Charles Michel and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen met with the leaders of Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Moldova, and Ukraine for the sixth Eastern Partnership summit in Brussels. Following the summit, the leaders adopted a joint declaration which emphasizes a “strong commitment to our strategic, ambitious and forward-looking Eastern Partnership,” acknowledges the “European aspirations and the European choice of the partners concerned,” and seeks to enhance cooperation on the basis of the Eastern Partnership policy beyond 2020. The leaders also announced several new initiatives, including the Eastern Partnership Trade Helpdesk, a 60 million Euro (68 million dollars) financing agreement in support of Moldova, and a 30 million Euro (34 million dollars) assistance package for the people of Belarus.

December 15

Ukrainian President Zelensky met with French President Macron and German Chancellor Scholz in a Normandy 3 format on the margins of the Eastern Partnership summit. According to a tweet from President Zelensky after the meeting, the Ukrainian president thanked President Macron and Chancellor Scholz “for their strong support for Ukraine against the background of the military threat of Russia” and “for the consistent position of Germany and France in the Normandy format.”

December 15

U.S. National Security Advisor Sullivan spoke with Russian Foreign Policy Advisor Yuriy Ushakov, “reiterated [the United States’s] strong concerns about the Russian military build-up on the border with Ukraine, and emphasized that the United States will continue to coordinate closely with [its] European allies and partners as [it] seek[s] to address security and strategic matters through diplomacy.” When Sullivan and Ushakov spoke again on December 20, Sullivan “indicated U.S. readiness to engage in diplomacy through multiple channels, including bilateral engagement, the NATO-Russia Council, and the OSCE,” but communicated that “any dialogue must be based on reciprocity and address [the United States’s] concerns about Russia’s actions, and take place in full coordination with [the United States’s] European Allies and partners.”

December 15

In a continued effort to find diplomatic solutions to the crisis between Russia and Ukraine, U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs Dr. Karen Donfried traveled to Moscow to meet with Russian Deputy Chief of Staff of the Office of the Presidential Administration Dmitry Kozak and Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov. Ryabkov presented Donfried with Moscow’s draft proposals for European security, including no further enlargement of NATO, no force or weapon deployment from NATO in countries that entered the alliance after May 1997, and a halt to any NATO activity in Ukraine and other states.”

December 15

The European Parliament approved the Digital Markets Act (DMA), which seeks to ensure fair behavior from large online platforms, with 642 votes in favor, 8 against, and 46 abstentions. The DMA “sets new obligations and prohibitions directly applicable to such platforms, with a view to ensuring fair and open markets.” Negotiations with EU governments are scheduled to begin under the French European Council presidency in early 2022.

December 15

Executive Vice-President of the European Commission Frans Timmermans and European Commissioner for Energy Kadri Simson provided a list of proposals to renovate the EU gas market during times of crisis. One such proposition included allowing two or more countries to inform Brussels of their plan to purchase emergency gas together. Despite the number of proposals presented, leaders failed to agree on a common position to reduce energy prices.

December 15

Following reports of the possible deployment of Russia-backed Wagner Group forces in Mali, the State Department noted it was “alarmed” and “urge[d] the transitional government in Mali not to divert scarce budgetary resources away from the Malian Armed Forces’ fight against terrorism.” On December 23, 15 European nations and Canada released a statement “firmly comdemn[ing] the deployment of mercenary troops on Malian territory” which they said “can only further deteriorate the security situation in West Africa.”

December 15

EU leaders met for the final European Council summit of 2021. The group discussed vaccination, coordination, and international cooperation with regards to COVID-19, crisis management and resilience, security and defense, migration, and the EU’s external relations with various actors. Specifically, it was noted that “[t]he European Council supports the strengthening of the EU-NATO strategic partnership and looks forward to the third joint declaration on EU-NATO cooperation,” “[t]he European Council strongly condemns the instrumentalization of migrants and refugees by the Belarusian regime,” and that “[a]ny further military aggression against Ukraine will have massive consequences and severe cost in response, including restrictive measures coordinated with partners.”

December 16

The U.S. Treasury Department announced sanctions against eight Chinese technology firms for “actively support[ing] the biometric surveillance and tracking of ethnic and religious minorities in China, particularly the predominantly Muslim Uyghur minority in Xinjiang.” The U.S. Senate also unanimously passed a bill which bans the import of goods “mined, produced, or manufactured wholly or in part with forced labor in the People’s Republic of China.”

December 16

NATO’s North Atlantic Council released a statement on the situation in and around Ukraine, noting that “NATO’s relationship with Ukraine is a matter only for Ukraine and the 30 NATO Allies,” and that the body “firmly reject[s] any attempts to divide Allied security.” Further, the statement declared that “any further aggression against Ukraine would have massive consequences and would carry a high price.” Speaking at the NATO Headquarters in Brussels, U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Donfried said that “[a]ny response to Russian proposals to resolve the crisis will involve our Allies and partners.”

December 16

U.S. National Security Advisor Sullivan briefed officials from the Bucharest Nine group “on the latest U.S. engagements with Russian officials” and “consulted his counterparts on issues of importance to Transatlantic security.” Sullivan “affirmed the U.S. commitment to continued close coordination, noting that unity with Allies and partners is [the United States’] greatest strength and that [it] will not make any decisions related to their security without them.”

December 16

The European Central Bank announced that it would end its pandemic bond-buying program by the end of March 2022, noting however that interest rates would remain unchanged. The latter came in stark contrast to both the Bank of England, which announced an increase in the U.K.’s key interest rate on the same day, and the U.S. Federal Reserve, which projected three interest rate hikes for 2022.

December 16

European Commission President von der Leyen announced an agreement among EU member states to purchase over 180 million doses of BioNTech/Pfizer COVID-19 vaccines adapted for the Omicron variant.

December 17

The Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs publicly released two draft agreements, one between Russia and the United States and the other between Russia and NATO, outlining its desired security guarantees within Europe. Both the “Agreement on Measures to Ensure the Security of the Russian Federation and Member States of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization” and the “Treaty between the United States of America and the Russian Federation on Security Guarantees” would prevent NATO from further enlargement, while the latter would require both Russia and the United States to “not implement security measures… that could undermine core security interests of the other Party.”

December 18

David Frost, former British minister of state and the lead U.K. minister on Brexit negotiations, announced his resignation, citing his displeasure with the British government’s policies on COVID-19, taxation, and “concerns about the current direction” of Brexit talks. U.K. Prime Minister Johnson appointed Foreign Secretary Elizabeth Truss to overtake the Ministerial responsibility for U.K.-EU relations and negotiations with the EU on the Northern Ireland Protocol.

December 19

In response to the proposals given to NATO partners by Russia on European security, German Defense Minister Lambrecht said in Lithuania that NATO allies were willing to discuss Russia’s demands, but would not permit Moscow to “dictate” NATO’s security affairs. The Lithuanian Ministry of Defense rejected Russia’s proposals outright, noting that “[t]he only aim of such demands is to split the unity of the Alliance.”

December 20

The EMA recommended authorizing Novavax’s COVID-19 vaccine Nuvaxovid to all individuals 18 years and older. Nuvaxovid is the fifth vaccine to receive the EMA’s recommendation to prevent COVID-19 in the EU.

December 20

In response to the December 19 Legislative Council elections in Hong Kong, the Foreign Ministers of Australia, Canada, New Zealand, the United Kingdom, and the United States released a joint statement to “express [their] grave concern over the erosion of democratic elements of the Special Administrative Region’s electoral system.” The leaders also “urge[d] the People’s Republic of China to act in accordance with its international obligations to respect protected rights and fundamental freedoms in Hong Kong, including those guaranteed under the Sino-British Joint Declaration.”

December 21

U.S. Secretary of State Blinken spoke with Lithuanian Prime Minister Ingrida Simonyte, underscoring “ironclad U.S. solidarity” with Lithuania as it “faces geopolitical challenges to regional stability, security, and economic prosperity.” Blinken also noted “troubling public reports that People’s Republic of China customs authorities are not clearing Lithuanian shipments” and “that [Chinese authorities] are rejecting import applications from Lithuania.” Blinken “highlighted U.S. support for Lithuania in the face of these actions.”

December 22

U.S. Secretary of State Blinken and EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Borrell reaffirmed “that any further Russian military aggression against Ukraine would have massive consequences for the Russian Federation” and “highlighted their shared concerns about escalating political pressure and economic coercion by the People’s Republic of China against Lithuania.” The two “underscored [their] continuing solidarity with Lithuania in the face of [China’s] coercive behavior.”

December 22

Following a regular meeting of the Trilateral Contact Group, with representatives from Ukraine, Russia, and the OSCE, the “participants expressed their strong determination to fully adhere to the Measures to Strengthen the [July 2020] Ceasefire agreement” – which, among other measures, bans “offensive, reconnaissance, and sabotage operations” as well as “firing, including sniper fire” in certain areas of Donetsk and Luhansk regions of Ukraine – noting that this is of “utmost significance for the people living on both sides of the contact line.” A U.S. State Department statement “welcome[d]” the OSCE announcement, noting “[w]e hope the resultant peace will create the diplomatic space necessary to de-escalate regional tensions and provide a positive atmosphere for further discussion.”

December 22

Senior U.S. administration and European Commission officials met to consult on the U.S.-EU Agenda for Beating the Global Pandemic Vaccinating the World, Saving Lives Now, and Building Back Better Health Security, announced first in September. The two sides discussed “ongoing efforts to donate and deliver more than 1.9 billion vaccine doses around the world; accelerating efforts to get shots into arms, including assistance to countries in need; coordinating initiatives to boost global production of COVID-19 vaccines and critical supplies; and cooperating on joint health threat assessments and R&D, and more.” Both sides also “agreed on the importance of establishing a Financial Intermediary Fund for global health security and pandemic preparedness in early 2022 with sustainable capitalization.”

December 23

U.S. Secretary of State Blinken and NATO Secretary-General Stoltenberg discussed “NATO’s dual-track approach to Russia, noting the Alliance remains ready for meaningful dialogue with Russia, while standing united to defend and protect Allies.” Blinken also spoke with U.K. Foreign Secretary Truss on “shared priorities, including a strong, united response to further Russian aggression against Ukraine.”

December 23

U.S. National Security Advisor Sullivan spoke with the Ukrainian Head of Presidential Administration Andriy Yermak about “their shared concerns and common approach regarding Russia’s military build-up near Ukraine’s border.” Sullivan also “welcomed [the December 22] OSCE announcement regarding the ‘strong determination’ of Ukrainian government forces and Russia-led forces in eastern Ukraine to fully adhere to the July 2020 ceasefire.”

December 27

Representatives from China, France, Germany, Russia, the United Kingdom, and Iran met in Vienna to revive the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), or Iran Nuclear Deal, talks. The EEAS noted that the talks focused on the potential return of the United States to the agreement following its withdrawal in 2018.

December 27

U.S. National Security Advisory Sullivan spoke with Polish National Security Bureau Chief Pawel Soloch and Head of the International Policy Bureau Jakub Kumoch. The three “exchanged views on Russia’s military build-up near Ukraine’s border and affirmed the importance of Allied unity in diplomatic and deterrence efforts.” Sullivan also “reiterated U.S. support for the North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s Article 5 and underscored the United States’ readiness to support [its] Eastern Flank Allies as they defend their countries.”

December 27

Polish President Andrzej Duda vetoed a controversial media law that would have shut down Poland’s largest independent broadcaster TVN, owned by the U.S. media conglomerate Discovery.

December 28

U.S. Secretary of State Blinken and Polish Foreign Minister Zbigniew Rau spoke, “reaffirm[ing] strong U.S. support for Poland’s security as it continues to contend with Belarus’ exploitation of vulnerable migrants.” Blinken also “briefed the Foreign Minister on U.S. efforts to resolve the conflict in eastern Ukraine diplomatically” and “expressed appreciation for President Duda’s veto of the media ownership law” on December 27.

December 28

Russia’s top court ordered the liquidation of the country’s oldest human rights organization, Memorial International, as well as its sister organization, Memorial Human Rights Center. In response, the United States, Australia, Canada, the EU, and the U.K. issued a joint statement “deplor[ing] the decisions” to “forcibly close” the two organizations and “call[ing] on Russia to uphold its international human rights obligations and commitments.” The group also stated that they “continue to condemn the Russian legislation on ‘foreign agents,’ which further silences independent voices and shrinks the space for civil society.”

December 29

U.S. Secretary of State Blinken and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky discussed “efforts to peacefully resolve the conflict in eastern Ukraine and upcoming diplomatic engagements with Russia.” Blinken “reiterated the United States’ unwavering support for Ukraine’s independence, sovereignty, and territorial integrity in the face of Russia’s military buildup on Ukraine’s borders.”

December 29

French Foreign Minister Le Drian, German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock, U.K. Foreign Secretary Truss, and U.S. Secretary of State Blinken spoke about “the importance of continued coordination to deter any further Russian aggression against Ukraine and affirmed the consensus among Allies and partners to impose massive consequences and severe costs on Russia for such actions.” They also discussed the “pace of developments in Iran’s nuclear program,” “highlighted their solidarity with Lithuania in the face of escalating political pressure and economic coercion” by China, as well as national elections in Libya.

December 30

President Biden spoke with Russian President Putin, urging “Russia to de-escalate tensions with Ukraine,” making “clear that the United States and its allies and partners will respond decisively if Russia further invades Ukraine,” and expressing “support for diplomacy” ahead of the announced January 2022 bilateral Strategic Stability Dialogue, NATO-Russia Council, and Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe talks. In response to the announced talks between Russia and the United States, EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Borrell noted that “[t]he EU must be involved in these negotiations.”

December 30

German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock called for a common EU import ban on “goods produced using forced labor,” referring specifically to China’s Xinjiang region. Baerbock also noted that she would not attend the Winter Olympics in China in February, although for personal reasons and not through an official government decision.

December 31

U.S. Secretary of State Blinken spoke separately with NATO Secretary-General Stoltenberg, Canadian Foreign Minister Mélanie Joly, and Italian Foreign Minister Luigi Di Maio. Blinken and Stoltenberg discussed “upcoming engagement with Russia in the NATO-Russia Council and the U.S.-Russia Strategic Stability Dialogue;” Blinken and Joly conferred on a “strong, united response to further Russian aggression against Ukraine;” and Blinken and Di Maio reiterated the “importance of continued coordination to deter any further Russian aggression against Ukraine,” highlighting “their solidarity with Lithuania in the face of escalating political pressure and economic coercion” by China.

Snapshot

Figures

Part I: Russia and Ukraine

On November 1, commercial satellite images confirmed Russian military buildups on Ukraine’s borders, including heightened numbers of troops, artillery, and other armored units. With over 100,000 troops at the border, a month later, on December 3, The Washington Post released a declassified U.S. intelligence document detailing Russian plans for a multi-front offensive into Ukraine to begin as early as 2022. U.S. President Biden and Russian President Vladimir Putin have spoken twice – on December 7 and December 30 – about the situation on Ukraine’s borders and the U.S. has engaged in consistent multi-level discussions with its European allies and partners since mid-November on the crisis.

While Ukraine’s military has undergone major transformation since the 2014 illegal Russian annexation of Crimea, Ukrainian forces remain significantly outnumbered by those of Russia. Moscow possesses nearly 700,000 more active troops than Kyiv, including almost double the number of Ukrainian army troops and 3.5 times the number of Ukrainian air force troops. While Ukraine’s number of total reserve troops is equivalent to that of Russia’s active troops at 900,000, Russia possesses over twice as many reserve troops (2 million). In May 2021, the Permanent Mission of Ukraine to the International Organizations in Vienna estimated that nearly 3,000 Russian military forces were fighting in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions of eastern Ukraine, with the total number of Russian-led fighters and proxies estimated to be over 35,000. The 35,000 forces, which include Russia-backed paramilitary forces such as the Wagner Group, could also assist in a potential invasion.

The disparity between Russian and Ukrainian military capabilities extends beyond troop numbers to defense materiel. On the ground, Russia possesses at least 13,120 armored vehicles compared to Ukraine’s 2,433; 2,840 main battle tanks to Ukraine’s 858; and over 4,684 artilleries to Ukraine’s 1,818. In the air, differences are even more apparent: Russia possesses 1,160 combat-capable fighter aircrafts compared to Ukraine’s 125; 823 helicopters to Ukraine’s 46; and at least 714 air defense systems compared to Ukraine’s 332.

To assist Kyiv the United States has provided Ukraine with defensive equipment since 2014, committing a total of $2.7 billion to support Ukraine’s forces. In the last year alone, the United States has provided $650 million in defense equipment to Kyiv, which, according to U.S. State Department Spokesperson Ned Price, is “more security assistance [from the United States] to Ukraine… than in any previous year – ever.”In June, the Biden administration authorized $60 million in military aid be sent to Ukraine and, in late December 2021, approved an additional security package worth $200 million. One of the most recent shipments, which arrived in Ukraine on January 21, 2022, included “nearly 200,000 pounds of lethal aid, including ammunition for the front line defenders of Ukraine.” Additionally, the White House announced on January 21 that it had notified Congress of its intent to transfer five Mi-17 helicopters to Kyiv. As of January 24, 2022, other NATO members have also greatly increased their military aid to Ukraine, such as the United Kingdom, which in recent weeks has sent Kyiv approximately 2,000 anti-tank weapons and a small number of training personnel. Canada has also deployed a small number of special forces to Ukraine. And, after approval from Washington, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania intend to provide Ukraine with U.S.-made Javelin anti-tank weapons and Stinger air-defense systems.Part II: Mass influx of migrants over EU’s Eastern land bordersDetected crossings over the European Union (EU)’s eastern land borders increased more than tenfold between 2020 and 2021– from 677 to 7,915, according to Frontex, the EU’s collective border protection agency. The primary country of origin for detected migrants in 2021 was Iraq (4665), with migrants also coming from Afghanistan (612), Syria (442), the Republic of Congo (210), and Russia (185). Belarus is the principal point of entry in Europe for those attempting to cross the EU’s eastern land borders, and migratory pressure has been particularly felt in the three EU member states that share a border with it – Latvia, Lithuania, and Poland, with all three countries imposing states of emergency at their border with Belarus over the summer and into the fall. In July, Frontex reported over 3000 illegal crossings from Belarus into Lithuania, up from 22 crossings in January and 14 in February.

Of Frontex’s six established migratory routes, crossings over the EU’s Eastern land borders in 2021 accounted for the lowest total number of illegal crossings. From January to December 2021, 65,362 border crossings were recorded via the Central Mediterranean route, 60,540 via the Western Balkan route, 22,504 via the Western African route, 20,373 via the Eastern route, and 18,254 via the Western Mediterranean route. However, from 2020 to 2021, the Eastern land border saw a far greater percentage change in crossings than any other migratory route: there was an 1069% increase in crossings, compared to 125% increase in the Western Balkan route, 83% increase in the Central Mediterranean route, 6% in the Western Mediterranean route, 0.5% in the Eastern Mediterranean route, while the Western African route saw a 2.3% decrease in crossings.

The route to the EU through Belarus became popular after the Belarusian government simplified visa proceedings for migrants from the Middle East. According to Frontex, “[t]he [July] migration flow [was] fed by controlled arrivals on tourist visas or on the basis of visa-free entry to Belarus and facilitated movements towards the Lithuanian-Belarusian border.” Lithuania’s Deputy Minister of Interior Kestutis Lancinskas added that the Belarusian government indicated that Minsk was “ready to simplify visa proceedings… for ‘tourists’ from Iraq” as early as March. The New York Times reported in November that one travel agent in Iraq sold nearly 100 travel packages to Belarus per week, which included “airfare through a third country, transit accommodation, and a Belarusian visa.” There are also reports that such travel agencies are connected to the Belarusian government, flying migrants on Belarusian-owned planes and placing them in state-run hotels. Once in Belarus, migrants arriving with tourist visas have been escorted from Minsk – by smugglers, Belarusian forces, or as part of their travel package – to the EU border.Flights to Minsk from the Middle East also became much more frequent during the spring and into the summer. Belavia, Belarus’s state airline, flew 65 times from Istanbul to Minsk in July, compared to 31 and 28 times in March and February, respectively. On the same route, Turkish Airlines flights increased from 32 flights in March and April to 64 flights in July. Over the course of the summer, there were also direct flights to Minsk from Antalya, Beirut, Baghdad, and Dubai.Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko himself has hinted on multiple occasions at Belarusian involvement in the border crisis. On July 6, Lukashenko stated that Belarus would “not hold [any migrants] back.” In a November interview, he said it was “perfectly possible” that Belarusian forces were helping migrants cross into Polish territory. One week after the interview, while visiting migrants housed in a warehouse on the Belarus-Poland border, Lukashenko told the migrants, “[i]f you want to go westwards, we won’t detain you, chock you, beat you. It’s up to you. Go through. Go.”In response to increased crossings, Latvian, Lithuanian, and Polish forces have sought to implement physical barriers, such as razor wire, on their borders with Belarus. In August, the Lithuanian government approved the allocation of 152 million euros (approximately $175 million) for a border fence with Belarus and on October 14, Poland’s parliament approved plans for a $350 million border wall.European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has accused Lukashenko of conducting an “instrumentalization of migrants for political purposes,” and on December 2, Canada, the EU, the U.K., and the United States announced additional rounds of sanctions against the Lukashenko regime, demanding that it “completely halt its orchestrating of irregular migration across its borders with the EU.”Airlines have also responded to pressure to address the crisis. In November, both Belavia and Turkish Civil Aviation announced that citizens of Iraq, Syria, and Yemen were no longer permitted to board flights to Belarus. A few days later, Dubai also banned travelers from Iraq and Syria from flying to Belarus, even with a Belarusian visa. Repatriation flights for migrants back to Iraq began in November.While detected crossings over the EU’s Eastern land borders have decreased since July, hundreds to thousands of migrants remain stuck in perilous conditions on the Belarusian border.

What to Watch

Center on the United States and Europe Director Thomas Wright lays out events, issues, and potential developments to watch for in the months ahead.I am delighted to share with you the fourteenth edition of the Trans-Atlantic Scorecard, a quarterly evaluation of U.S.-European relations produced by Brookings’s Center on the United States and Europe.The fourth quarter of 2021 has seen a flurry of diplomatic engagements between Washington and Paris after the AUKUS announcement, the formation of Germany’s first-ever three-party federal governing coalition under Chancellor Olaf Scholz, and a buildup of Russian military forces on the Ukrainian border. At the time of writing, unknowns abound. Will Russia conduct a further invasion into Ukraine? Will the West be able to maintain a united front in the face of President Putin’s threats? A few points from this iteration of the Trans-Atlantic Scorecard, however, offer a snapshot of the impact of Moscow’s actions on U.S.-Europe relations to date, as well as other developments from the quarter.Amid the Russia-Ukraine crisis, U.S.-European relations have jumped from an average of 5.3 on a 1-10 scale at the end of the third quarter of 2021 to 6.5 at the end of the last quarter of 2021. Political, security, and economic relations are also up (all around 6.5), a significant improvement from last quarter, when they ranged from 5.2 to 5.6. 73% of our survey pool saw U.S.-Europe relations trending positively overall, and 80% of respondents described U.S.-European security relations as improving. Bilateral relations between the US and Germany and the US and the U.K. were fairly stable compared to last quarter, while US-Russia relations suffered a 1.3-point decrease (from an average of 3.2 to 1.9). Reconciliation between France and the US post-AUKUS boosted bilateral relations from 3.6 to 5.9. US-Turkey and US-European Union relations both increased slightly (by 0.5 and 0.7 points, respectively).On the questions specific to events and developments of this quarter, our survey pool was split on whether Russia will launch a further military incursion into Ukraine by March 31, 2022: 48% agreed, while 32% disagreed (20% were neutral). 58% disagreed or strongly disagreed that the new German government will cancel the Nord Stream 2 pipeline. Over half thought that negotiations in Vienna on a return to the JCPOA will fail to result in agreement, while only 9% disagreed (39% were neutral). Regarding China’s pressure on Lithuania, 76% agreed or strongly agreed that it will result in greater solidarity amongst EU member states in the face of coercive measures from Beijing. Finally, our survey pool was split on the question of whether the United Kingdom will no longer seek to replace the Northern Ireland protocol as part of its agreement with the EU after Brexit minister David Frost’s resignation from the U.K. government: 32% agreed or strongly agreed, while 27% disagreed (41% were neutral).Looking ahead to the first part of 2022, all eyes remain on Russia and Ukraine—how the allies will respond if there is an invasion and the implications for European security architecture if there is a diplomatic solution. As the Beijing Olympics take place in February, we will be watching to see how the EU responds to China’s heightened pressure on member state Lithuania. Finally, we will be closely following the buildup to the French presidential election in April, and how the campaign season coincides with France’s Presidency of the Council of the EU.Thank you again for reading the Trans-Atlantic Scorecard.