The new geopolitics of Turkey and the West
Putin’s next act
Ireland in Europe and the world: A conversation with Irish Taoiseach Leo Varadkar
The greatest threat from the U.S. perspective is direct military conflict between Turkish and American forces...Erdogan seems determined to force the Americans to fulfill past promises that YPG forces would return east of the Euphrates. The challenge for the US is whether that promise can be kept while also maintaining order on the ground.
It is too soon to tell whether Pompeo would take a different approach toward Turkey...Though I wouldn’t expect the direction of U.S. policy to change significantly...The working groups put in place after Tillerson’s Ankara meetings were something that multiple other secretaries of state had used in the past to address tough policy issues, and there [is] no reason why this particular group could not continue under the new leadership...[Moreover], U.S. policy on the issues of Brunson and Gülen will not change.
Putin is constrained resource-wise between the Ukraine and Syrian conflicts, and there is not much of an appetite among the Russian public for a more aggressive military engagement...Russians don’t want to see their young soldiers come back home in body bags.
After the end of his term, Putin could continue to rule from the shadows if Russia does not go the way of China, which just erased term limits for President Xi Jinping...It’s about installing Putin in the Russian history and his version of what Russia is as the founder of modern Russia, because that’s what he is now. And I think that’s the legacy that he’s most concerned with.