A new dawn for protectionism? From trade wars to mega-regional trade agreements
Japan in Asia: Economic diplomacy in the new geopolitics
The Great Trade War of 2018
[The agreement between Japan and the United to engage in bilateral trade talks] is just the beginning of a long and winding road.
Trump miscalculated that he could muscle China into making concessions to his trade demands ... He has not been able to budge [Chinese President] Xi Jinping, who has his own domestic politics to manage. The likelihood of Trump being able to extract concessions from Xi on trade issues is declining by the day. The more the narrative hardens in Beijing that Trump seeks to derail China’s rise, and not just solve trade irritants, the less political space there is for Xi to offer any concessions on Trump’s demands.
The question with this administration is, what will Trump see as an acceptable return for this waiver [granted to India for its trade with Russia and Iran]? Will he demand a transaction in return, some give on the trade side or a big defence deal for the US as well? Russia and Iran are sticking points, but the fact that the Trump administration is dealing with these privately is a sign of how much the relationship has changed. [Mr Trump] usually doesn’t give out freebies.
"What I suspect matters most for firms considering investing in Mexico is stable, predictable, comprehensive access to the North American market, more so than the right to bring [investor-state dispute settlement] cases."