China’s influence in the Pacific Islands: Overstatement or underestimation?

Over the summer, China convened its third China-Pacific Island Countries Foreign Ministers’ Meeting. While the meeting achieved little of substance, it highlighted China’s decade-long effort to deepen its relationships in the Pacific Islands region. Much analysis has assumed that China’s increasing visibility in the region will allow it to influence and/or interfere in the domestic and foreign affairs of Pacific Island countries to advantage its strategic interests, particularly relating to Taiwan. The United States, Australia, New Zealand, Japan, and the United Kingdom, among other allies and partners, have increased their policy focus—and spending—on the region.

On September 16, following the conclusion of the weeklong Pacific Islands Forum Leaders Meeting, the Center for Asia Policy Studies at Brookings will host a presentation by Nonresident Senior Fellow Joanne Wallis that outlines a framework to analyze influence in the Pacific Islands region that foregrounds the agency of Pacific Island countries and accounts for the complexity of their sociopolitical contexts. Drawing on data generated by four of her research projects involving extensive data collection in the region, Wallis will discuss how China’s influence is overstated in some respects and underestimated in others. She will also examine what this means for the United States and Australia, particularly at a time of American retrenchment from the aid, development, and diplomatic spheres, which are critical to Pacific Island countries. Her presentation will be followed by two discussant responses.

Viewers can submit questions via e-mail to [email protected].