Center for Middle East Policy

[The military's] veneer of invincibility [has been cracked in the last 48 hours. But the army warned Wednesday that further attacks would be] severely retaliated against. It is still the most powerful institution in Pakistan, and will not let go of that position easily.

Khan's arrest by paramilitary forces – and the manner of the arrest, with dozens of forces in riot gear – is not about any corruption case against Khan, as was the pretext for the arrest, but should be seen in the context of his recent comments against officials in the military and intelligence services. Those comments seem to have been the military's 'red line.' Khan's popular support has protected him against the [military] establishment over the last year; but now that the establishment has asserted itself, it's hard to see it backing down, and difficult to see how the situation will deescalate. This is a very dangerous development.

It’s hard to see how the situation de-escalates from here. Khan’s popular support has protected him against the establishment’s assertiveness until now. But now that the establishment has asserted itself, it’s hard to see it backing down anytime soon. Volatile, dangerous times [are] ahead for Pakistan.