Brookings-Tsinghua Center

We experienced an anomalous period when Ma [Ying-jeou], Obama, and Xi were in office where relations between Taipei, Washington, and Beijing were largely constructive. Some of the muscle memory in Washington atrophied a bit. With the elections of Tsai [Ing-wen] and Trump, things have reverted back to the historical mean of increased sensitivity around Taiwan.

[Wang Qishan appears likely to] play a leading role in overseeing U.S.-China relations. ... Wang will operate at a more strategic level, in theory to help keep the relationship from going off of the rails. ... [However,] Trump really values being the person in the cockpit steering U.S.-China relations. ... So I think Wang Qishan’s impact on the relationship remains an open question.

I expect U.S.-China relations to grow more competitive in the coming months. ... There will be fewer areas of cooperation to counterbalance areas of friction.