Brookings-Tsinghua Center

[In his remarks on the Trump administration's policy towards China at the Hudson Institute on October 4, 2018, Vice President Mike Pence] attempted to shift public scrutiny from Russia to China. ... He asserted that Russian efforts to interfere in America’s electoral process "pales in comparison to what China is doing."

Trump miscalculated that he could muscle China into making concessions to his trade demands ... He has not been able to budge [Chinese President] Xi Jinping, who has his own domestic politics to manage. The likelihood of Trump being able to extract concessions from Xi on trade issues is declining by the day. The more the narrative hardens in Beijing that Trump seeks to derail China’s rise, and not just solve trade irritants, the less political space there is for Xi to offer any concessions on Trump’s demands.

We experienced an anomalous period when Ma [Ying-jeou], Obama, and Xi were in office where relations between Taipei, Washington, and Beijing were largely constructive. Some of the muscle memory in Washington atrophied a bit. With the elections of Tsai [Ing-wen] and Trump, things have reverted back to the historical mean of increased sensitivity around Taiwan.