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Do Tax Cuts Starve the Beast? The Effect of Tax Changes on Government Spending



The hypothesis that decreases in taxes reduce future government
spending is often cited as a reason for cutting taxes. However, because
taxes change for many reasons, examinations of the relationship between overall
measures of taxation and subsequent spending are plagued by problems of
reverse causation and omitted variable bias. To derive more reliable estimates,
this paper examines the behavior of government expenditure following legislated
tax changes that narrative sources suggest are largely uncorrelated with
other factors affecting spending. The results provide no support for the hypothesis
that tax cuts restrain government spending; indeed, the point estimates
suggest that tax cuts increase spending. The results also indicate that the main
effect of tax cuts on the government budget is to induce subsequent legislated
tax increases. Examination of four episodes of major tax cuts reinforces these

David H. Romer

Herman Royer Professor of Political Economy - University of California, Berkeley

Christina D. Romer

Class of 1957 Garff B. Wilson Professor of Economics - University of California, Berkeley


Steven J. Davis

William H. Abbott Professor of International Business and Economics - The University of Chicago Booth School of Business

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