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BPEA Article

Consumer Durable Spending

Abstract

WE AT THE SURVEY RESEARCH CENTER were greatly pleased to find included in Brookings Papers on Economic Activity a study that "appraises the contribution of the Survey Research Center's Index of Consumer Sentiment to forecasts of automobile demand." Saul Hymans makes a valuablec ontributionin attempting to incorporate the consumer sentiment variable in a stock adjustment of recasting model and thus to bridge the gap between econometrics and the analysis of psychological factors relevant for consumer behavior. But certain procedures used by Hymans and numerous remarks made by him and the discussants call for a reply by those who have measured the changes in consumer sentiment, so that the reader may be given a fuller understanding of the issues raised.

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