The U.S. economy created 113,000 new jobs in January, and the unemployment rate fell to 6.6 percent, according to the new job report from the Labor Department. Here’s some of what Brookings experts are saying and tweeting about employment and the January job report.
Senior Fellow Justin Wolfers tells Yahoo! Finance that this job report is a “tricky one and far too easy to misread.”
Senior Fellow Gary Burtless offered his analysis of the numbers, calling the January job gains reported by employers “disappointing,” but noting that “the household survey showed much more robust employment increases.”
What’s up with gov’t & health employment? Gov’t payrolls should be increasing, and emp. gains in health have ceased. http://t.co/RN18Lu6WIa
— Gary Burtless (@GBurtless) February 7, 2014
Yesterday, David Wessel, director of the Hutchins Center on Fiscal and Monetary Policy, wrote that more than one in six men between 25 and 54 years old are not working. Also, Regis Barnichon, a Brookings Papers on Economic Activity author, wrote, based on his Barnichon-Nekarda model, that “I expect unemployment to remain roughly steady over the next six months with an unemployment rate at 6.6% by June 2014.”
Some tweets are collected below. Follow @JustinWolfers, @DavidMWessel, @Berubea1 for more.
Payrolls rebenchmark changed our view of average monthly jobs growth: 2013 from 182k to 194k 2012 from 183k to 186k 2011 from 175k to 174k.
— Justin Wolfers (@JustinWolfers) February 7, 2014
Both the labor force participation rate and the employment-population rate rose a bit in January from December. http://t.co/tEcu6oCyXk
— David Wessel (@davidmwessel) February 7, 2014
WE’RE BACK, BABY. The US economy has now recovered all the jobs lost in the recession.* * Depending on how you count pic.twitter.com/ZPkSvplvnh
— Justin Wolfers (@JustinWolfers) February 7, 2014
But millennials are lazy! RT @JedKolko: employment-pop ratio for 25-34 jumped to 75.9%, highest level in 5 years. pic.twitter.com/j9SNcLOv9F
— Alan Berube (@berubea1) February 7, 2014
Since the recession began, employment is either: – Still 851k lower (payrolls) – Now 332k higher (household) – Or 543k higher (adjusted hh)
— Justin Wolfers (@JustinWolfers) February 7, 2014
Manufacturing, prof svcs jobs up, health care unchanged, retail down…is this such a bad thing? #NFP
— Alan Berube (@berubea1) February 7, 2014
Y’know what’s more amazing: Adjusting the household survey to a payrolls basis says employment grew +901k this month. http://t.co/12UgjTGJkB
— Justin Wolfers (@JustinWolfers) February 7, 2014
It’s extraordinary to see the unemployment rate decline 1.3%-pts over the past year, having declined only 0.3%-pts over the previous year.
— Justin Wolfers (@JustinWolfers) February 7, 2014
Time for a TWITTERCHART!!! Payrolls growth since Jan 2012: █▅▆▂▂▁▃▃▃▅▅▅▄▇▃▅▄▅▃▅▃▆▇▁▂
— Justin Wolfers (@JustinWolfers) February 7, 2014
5 years ago: “Nonfarm payroll employment fell sharply in January (-598k) and the unemployment rose from 7.2 to 7.6%” http://t.co/QkYrb0Kdw1
— Justin Wolfers (@JustinWolfers) February 7, 2014
Today’s data suggest recent trends of good-but-not-great jobs growth is continuing. But they warn us to be wary of a slowdown.
— Justin Wolfers (@JustinWolfers) February 7, 2014
Normally I warn folks to be wary about comparing data before and after new population controls (weights were changed). Small effects this yr
— Justin Wolfers (@JustinWolfers) February 7, 2014
Look, there IS news in the household survey. But it IS noisy. I conclude the economy is still continuing to add 150-200k jobs per month.
— Justin Wolfers (@JustinWolfers) February 7, 2014
Color me confused. – Moderately disappointing payrolls report – Incredible household survey. Your conclusion depends how you weight ’em.
— Justin Wolfers (@JustinWolfers) February 7, 2014
My usual rule of thumb is 80% weight on payrolls, 20% on household. 0.8*113 + 0.2*616 = 214k Suggests the labor market report wasn’t so bad
— Justin Wolfers (@JustinWolfers) February 7, 2014
Benchmark revisions: The level of nonfarm payroll employment in March 2013 was revised up by 347,000 (not seasonally adjusted) or 0.3%
— David Wessel (@davidmwessel) February 7, 2014
monthly payroll gains have averaged 154,000 over the past 3 months. In 2013, job growth averaged 194,000 per month.
— David Wessel (@davidmwessel) February 7, 2014
But, wow, HERE’S THE SILVER LINING: Household survey shows employment +616k (after adjusting for population controls).
— Justin Wolfers (@JustinWolfers) February 7, 2014
2.34 million over age 20 in January had been out of work for* a year or more* and were still looking. a year ago, 3.0 million were.
— David Wessel (@davidmwessel) February 7, 2014
Pollyanna: Over the past three months, payrolls growth has averaged +154k Eeyore: Over the past two months, it’s only +94k Both are right
— Justin Wolfers (@JustinWolfers) February 7, 2014
Really small revision in December: Dec Payrolls Revised To +75K From +74K
— David Wessel (@davidmwessel) February 7, 2014
Ugh. Payrolls +113k. December revised from +74k to +75k. November from +241k to +274k. Unemployment 6.6% Folks, this isn’t good news.
— Justin Wolfers (@JustinWolfers) February 7, 2014
January unemployment rate dipped to 6.6% from 6.7%
— David Wessel (@davidmwessel) February 7, 2014
only 113,000 jobs added in january, bls says
— David Wessel (@davidmwessel) February 7, 2014
Consensus forecasts: Payrolls +175k Private +161k Unemployment 6.7% Hourly earnings +0.2% Work week 34.4
— Justin Wolfers (@JustinWolfers) February 7, 2014
Technical factors affecting jobs report: 1. Cold 2. Payrolls rebenchmark 3. Household pop controls 4. UI not extended http://t.co/u78VsWbi6V
— Justin Wolfers (@JustinWolfers) February 7, 2014
Beginning Jobs Day right. pic.twitter.com/YWrkKCxapX
— Justin Wolfers (@JustinWolfers) February 7, 2014
quote>
Commentary
What Brookings Scholars Are Saying about the Job Numbers
February 7, 2014