Alexander H. Montgomery

A Kh-47 Kinzhal Russian hypersonic missile warhead, shot down by a Ukrainian Air Defence unit amid Russia's attack on Ukraine, is seen at a compound of the Scientific Research Institute in Kyiv, Ukraine May 12, 2023. REUTERS/Valentyn Ogirenko

Ukraine and the Kinzhal: Don’t believe the hypersonic hype

Alexander H. Montgomery and Amy J. Nelson

Tuesday, May 23, 2023

Handout photo shows a Dassault Rafale jet fighter carrying a ASMPA (medium-range air to surface missile) French nuclear air-launched cruise missile. Emmanuel Macron’s recent comments on the French response in case of a Russian nuclear attack on Ukraine have drawn fire from observers and political opponents at home. During an interview with French TV channel France 2, the French president said on Wednesday that Paris would “evidently” not use nuclear weapons in response to a Russian nuclear attack on Ukraine. Photo by MBDA via ABACAPRESS.COM

How not to estimate the likelihood of nuclear war

Amy J. Nelson and Alexander H. Montgomery

Wednesday, October 19, 2022

FILE PHOTO: Polish Air Force MiG-29 pilot Adrian Rojek performs during the Radom Air Show at an airport in Radom, Poland August 23, 2015. REUTERS/Kacper Pempel/File Photo

Escalation aversion in Ukraine: Nuclear and conventional risks

Amy J. Nelson, Alexander H. Montgomery, and Raman Preet Kaur

Wednesday, April 13, 2022

A US Air Force pararescueman assigned to the 57th Rescue Squadron performs dynamic hoist training with an HH-60G Pave Hawk helicopter in Romania on Wednesday March 9, 2022 during joint training missions with the Romanian air force in support of the NATO alliance. The U.S. military ordered the deployment of 500 additional troops to Europe, pushing the total number of American forces on the continent to about 100,000 as it seeks to deter Russia from broadening its unprovoked war in Ukraine, Pentagon officials said Monday. (US DOD/EYEPRESS)

Mind the escalation aversion: Managing risk without losing the initiative in the Russia-Ukraine war

Amy J. Nelson and Alexander H. Montgomery

Friday, March 11, 2022

U.S. Marine Corps Lance Cpl. Skyler Stevens uses new night optics technology during Advanced Naval Technology Exercise 2018 (ANTX-18) at Marine Corps Base Camp Pendleton, California, March 19, 2018. Picture taken March 19, 2018. U.S. Marine Corps/Lance Cpl. Rhita Daniel/Handout via REUTERS. ATTENTION EDITORS - THIS IMAGE WAS PROVIDED BY A THIRD PARTY

Is the U.S. military’s futurism obsession hurting national security?

Amy J. Nelson and Alexander H. Montgomery

Tuesday, January 18, 2022

Person with laptop standing in front of screen with computer code.

The rise of the futurists: The perils of predicting with futurethink

Alexander H. Montgomery and Amy J. Nelson

November 2020