The U.S. economy added 192,000 jobs in March, while the unemployment rate remained steady at 6.7 percent, according to new data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Nothing much in this jobs report for the pessimists; there’s a few small hints for the optimists. It’s just an ongoing underpowered recovery
— Justin Wolfers (@JustinWolfers) April 4, 2014
Senior Fellow Gary Burtless noted the good news in the report. “For the first time since December 2007,” he writes, “private U.S. payrolls reached a new all-time peak.” Despite this and some other good news, Burtless points out that:
public plus private payrolls remain more than 400,000 below their pre-recession peak. That’s because government payrolls sank. In the 49 months that private-sector employment increased, public payrolls fell 627,000, or about 2.8%. Government employment remained unchanged in March, and public payrolls edged down 19,000 over the past year. A shrinking public sector is one of the headwinds slowing the job market recovery. Fortunately, this headwind seems to be weakening.
Using an alternative seasonal adjustment model published in the Brookings Papers on Economic Policy, Jonathan Wright of Johns Hopkins University calculates different monthly numbers, shown here, including 189,000 jobs in March.
The Hamilton Project continues to estimate the U.S. “jobs gap”—the number of jobs that the U.S. economy has to create to return to pre-recession employment levels while absorbing the people who enter the labor force each month.
This number stands at 7.4 million jobs at the end of March 2014. According to the Hamilton Project, “If the economy adds about 208,000 jobs per month, which was the average monthly rate for the best year of job creation in the 2000s, then it will take until September 2018 to close the jobs gap.”
Visit the updated Metro Monitor to see how the top 100 U.S. metro areas have fared in a range of economic indicators, including job changes from before the recession through the fourth quarter of 2013.
Here is some of what Brookings experts are saying on Twitter:
Another month of slow, steady job market gains (if we avert our eyes from embarrassment of slumping gov’t payrolls). http://t.co/eridWWdEqG
— Gary Burtless (@GBurtless) April 4, 2014
The number of those working part-time for economic reasons increased by 200,000+ to 7.4 million in March
— David Wessel (@davidmwessel) April 4, 2014
Employment growth was broadly based across industries. (Except the shrinking federal government.) pic.twitter.com/XFoQzTxC2s
— Justin Wolfers (@JustinWolfers) April 4, 2014
The cyclical pattern of revisions means we’re probably still understating jobs growth. pic.twitter.com/6L5wdDNxqd
— Justin Wolfers (@JustinWolfers) April 4, 2014
Here’s why have folks have stopped saying Obamacare’s turning us into a nation of part-timers. Past year: Full-time +2,102k Part-time +191k
— Justin Wolfers (@JustinWolfers) April 4, 2014
The @BrookingsEcon seasonal re-analysis you’ve been waiting for: http://t.co/o6CD4lwj6i Better data, similar story pic.twitter.com/HlmX4DD2iX
— Justin Wolfers (@JustinWolfers) April 4, 2014
Forget the BLS headline that payrolls grew +192k… More accurate @BrookingsEcon seasonal analysis suggests: +189k. Game changer.
— Justin Wolfers (@JustinWolfers) April 4, 2014
Stunning pattern of persistent upward revisions. On average, initial print revised up: 2010 +40k 2011 +28k 2012 +24k 2013 +21k Similar today
— Justin Wolfers (@JustinWolfers) April 4, 2014
Don’t let the “no news” headlines distract you from the most important fact about the labor market: 10.5 million people remain unemployed.
— Justin Wolfers (@JustinWolfers) April 4, 2014
Monetary implications of this report: ZERO – No evidence of inflation or capacity constraints for the hawks – Not enough slowing for doves
— Justin Wolfers (@JustinWolfers) April 4, 2014
THAT chart. We’re nearly back, baby. But crikey, it’s taken a long time. http://t.co/ETwdu6qtSB (HT @calculatedrisk) pic.twitter.com/4xzCOw3Nwq
— Justin Wolfers (@JustinWolfers) April 4, 2014
This employment report should help put to rest fears that the economy was stalling as we entered the new year. We’re still growing, baby.
— Justin Wolfers (@JustinWolfers) April 4, 2014
Visit the jobs blog for past commentary on the monthly job numbers.
Commentary
What Brookings Scholars Are Saying about the Job Numbers
April 4, 2014