Trump’s approval slump and candidate quality drive 2026 Senate races

The opposition party typically enjoys an advantage in midterm elections. Its voters are highly mobilized, and often angry, as are many Democrats this year, while rank-and-file members of the president’s party are either satisfied with success or dispirited by failure, as they are this year.

Donald Trump’s problems are having a major, perhaps decisive, impact on the 2026 race for control of the Senate. Driven by high prices and an unfinished war with Iran, his national job approval stands at just 39.6% compared to a disapproval rating of 57.0%—a net negative of 17.4%—and it is even worse in several states that could make the difference between a Republican and Democratic Senate majority after the midterms. Among Americans who voted in 2024, Trump’s net job approval has declined by an average of 20 points in the states with competitive Senate contests this year.

But while the president’s public standing shapes the playing field, history tells us not to ignore the quality of the candidates and the campaigns they run, because they can make the difference between victory and defeat in close elections.

There is an interaction between the president’s political standing and candidate quality. When the president has been weakened, it is easier for the opposition to recruit strong candidates. Because Trump’s problems have been apparent since early in his second term, Democrats have been able to recruit some exceptionally strong candidates in key states. Meanwhile, Republicans ended up with some mediocre candidates, in part because the president has endorsed individuals based on their loyalty to him rather than on their electoral strength.

Strong Democrats, weak Republicans

In North Carolina, Roy Cooper, a popular two-term Democratic governor, got into the race early and faced no serious primary opposition. He is running against Mike Whatley, whose background includes being chair of the Republican National Committee, a position linking him firmly to Trump, and being a lobbyist for Duke Energy in a year when energy is a key part of the affordability issue, which is front and center in voters’ minds. For these reasons, Cooper holds a significant lead in a state that Trump carried in three straight presidential contests.

Another strong recruit was Sherrod Brown, who represented Ohio in the Senate for three terms before his defeat in 2024, when he could not overcome Trump’s 11-point victory in the state. Recent polling by Fox News shows Brown with a small lead overall against John Husted, who was appointed to the Senate to fill the seat that JD Vance vacated to assume the vice presidency. In an election where the voters view both parties with disdain, Brown has an important advantage: More than half of the electorate says that Brown is “not very close” or “not at all close” to the Democratic establishment.

Meanwhile, Husted is seen as extremely close to Donald Trump—not an advantage in an election year when Trump is so unpopular. Like his Republican counterpart in North Carolina, he is seen as close to an energy industry scandal. And he has a history of support for building data centers in Ohio, putting him on the wrong side of one of the emerging issues for the 2026 midterms.

In Georgia, the incumbent Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-Ga.) has to hold this seat for the Democrats if they have any hope of taking back the Senate. So far, his performance has been so solid that he has now catapulted onto the list of people who are mentioned as 2028 presidential candidates. Although Ossoff is Jewish and pro-Israel in a year where antipathy to Israel has grown throughout the electorate, his November 2024 vote to stop the sale of some weapons systems to Israel may show some voters that he is his own man. His opponent, Rep. Mike Collins (R-Ga.), is very much a MAGA candidate who has been accused of having an aide with ties to white nationalists and neo-Nazis.

The fact that James Talarico, the Democratic nominee for Senate in Texas, is competitive in the deep red state of Texas (Cook Political Report just moved this race into the “toss-up” category) reflects Trump’s newfound unpopularity in the state. But in addition to national and state trends working to his advantage, he has run a strong campaign. Meanwhile, Republicans ended up with Ken Paxton, a candidate dogged by scandal. Trump endorsed Paxton as a “true MAGA warrior” over incumbent Republican Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas), who had been critical of Trump, especially after Jan. 6.

In a conservative and religious part of the country, Talarico’s religious faith reads as genuine, and he is artful in using it on the stump and in his campaign ads. (His unusual views on the nature of God and their implications for gender issues may prove to be vulnerabilities, however.) In contrast, Paxton has been accused of corruption, been impeached by a Republican-dominated state legislature, and caught up in an ugly divorce. His fundraising efforts have been largely unsuccessful, and the Republican Party will be forced to devote as much as $100 million raised nationally to keep him competitive.

Flawed Democrats with serious Republican opponents

In two states critical to Democrats’ hopes for a Senate majority, a different dynamic is playing out. In Michigan, Abdul El Sayed, who lost a primary race for the gubernatorial nomination in 2018, beat Rep. Haley Stevens (D-Mich.), the Democratic establishment’s favorite, for the Senate nomination in a campaign that was watched by the whole country. He ran on a left-wing populist platform and strongly criticized U.S. support for Israel. Although he was not endorsed by DSA—he has never been a member of the organization—and calls himself a capitalist, he was endorsed by many important left-wingers in the Democratic Party, led by Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), and became the avatar for the Democrats’ turn to the left.

Although El-Sayed is vigorous, handsome, and a skilled communicator who enjoys fervent support from his base, he may find it difficult to put together the kind of coalition that Democratic candidates need to win in a deep purple state. His biggest obstacle is the lack of enthusiasm for far-left politics among African Americans who backed Stevens by significant margins in the primaries. In addition, his appearance with Hasan Piker, a critic of Israel who has been accused of antisemitism, has alarmed members of Michigan’s Jewish community. If El Sayed’s left-wing history turns off independent voters, muted support from African American and Jewish voters could cost him the election against Mike Rogers, who lost his previous Senate race by less than a single percentage point in 2024. On the other hand, Rogers’ shift from critic to supporter of Trump’s electoral fraud claims may trouble the independents and moderate Republicans who long saw Rogers as one of their own.

The other Democratic candidate who may be problematic is Troy Jackson, a former state senate president who was nominated after the previous nominee, Graham Platner, withdrew in the face of sexual assault accusations. Jackson has some vulnerabilities of his own, however. He is known for his bad temper and may also have authenticity problems. Some opponents in his home region question (and resent) his claims to be a logger after he pivoted to politics decades ago. Meanwhile, his general election opponent, five-term Republican Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine), has used her seniority to spread grants and public projects throughout her state and has proven her ability to run tough, effective campaigns, often coming from behind to win. But some women will not forgive her vote for Brett Kavanaugh, who voted to overturn Roe v. Wade, and Trump’s massive unpopularity in the state may be enough to end her long political career. Jackson now holds a modest advantage in the polls, but it won’t be an easy Democratic victory.

Republicans’ farm state blues

President Trump’s trade policies have reduced overseas markets for American agricultural products, and the conflict with Iran has increased farmers’ costs for essential inputs such as energy and fertilizer. In addition, the long delay in passing a farm bill has done nothing to ameliorate farmers’ economic pain. These realities have created unexpected opportunities for high-quality candidates in three states—Iowa, Kansas, and Nebraska—that Trump carried by double-digit margins less than two years ago.

In Iowa, the Democratic nominee, state Rep. Josh Turek, has rejected a knee-jerk allegiance to his political party. “I don’t care if it’s a Republican idea or a Democratic idea,” he says. “I will be out there, always [asking] ‘What is best for the people?’” As if that wasn’t enough to separate himself from the national Democrats, when Kamala Harris offered to campaign for him, he rejected the offer. In Kansas, Methodist minister Adam Hamilton is widely regarded as one of the most credible Democratic Senate nominees in decades. And in Nebraska, Democrats have decided not to field their own candidate but rather to unify around former union leader Dan Osborn, an independent who ran a surprisingly strong race against the incumbent Republican senator in 2024. In all three farm states, polls show that these candidates are remarkably close in elections that would likely not be competitive if Trump and his agricultural policies were more popular.

Two special cases

Although New Hampshire’s primary election will not be held until Sept. 8, the state’s Senate race is likely to feature two strong candidates—four-term Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas (D-N.H.) and former Republican Sen. John E. Sununu (R-N.H.)—squaring off against each other in the general election. Although New Hampshire tilts Democratic (Kamala Harris carried the state by 3 points in 2024), Pappas’ lead averages a modest 4 points, and the Sununu family is highly respected in the state. (The candidate’s father, John Sununu, served as governor of New Hampshire from 1983 to 1989 before moving on to become White House chief of staff under President George H. W. Bush, and the candidate’s brother, Chris Sununu, stepped down in January 2025 after serving as a popular governor for four consecutive terms.) If Pappas has a major stumble during the campaign, Sununu could eke out an upset victory.

And then there is Alaska, a state that is as unique in American politics as it is in other respects. The state’s economy revolves around natural resources, and the state’s cold weather and long distances between remote towns make its residents highly dependent on affordable energy. The top four finishers in its nonpartisan primary move on to the general election, the result of which is determined by ranked-choice voting. The state has long displayed a quirky independent streak. Ross Perot received 28.4% of Alaska’s vote in the 1992 presidential election, and incumbent Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) won reelection as a write-in candidate after losing the Republican primary in 2010.

This year, former Democratic representative Mary Peltola (D-Alaska) is running against the incumbent Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan (R-Alaska). These two finished in the top two places, with Peltola 7 points ahead of Sullivan in the first round of voting. In November, however, four candidates will be on the ballot, and the third-place finisher, with 2.5% of the vote, is also named Dan Sullivan. If his backers do not designate Sen. Dan Sullivan as their second choice on the ranked-choice ballot, the confusion could cost the incumbent senator his seat. Meanwhile, Peltola’s campaign slogan—family, fish, and freedom—captures Alaska’s distinctive political culture. Like Josh Turek in Iowa, Peltola has attempted to distance herself from the national party by rejecting an offer of endorsement from Kamala Harris. This could be her year.

Conclusion

Early in President Trump’s second term, few observers gave Democrats much chance of recapturing the Senate in 2026. Eighteen months later, the odds have shifted in their favor. The president’s failure to rein in high prices, coupled with his inability to bring the conflict with Iran to a successful conclusion, has sharply reduced his job approval, hampering his party’s candidates as the midterm election nears. With a couple of exceptions, Democrats have managed to recruit strong candidates, while Trump’s endorsement of Republicans based on their loyalty to him and the MAGA movement has weakened their prospects in states such as Georgia, Texas, and North Carolina.

As of now, control of the Senate is balanced on a knife’s edge. If Democrats can win the lion’s share of close races, they could end up with 51 seats. If Democratic turnout is strong across the country, they could do even better. But Republicans will have all the money they need to exploit Democrats’ vulnerabilities, and they know how to run and win tough races. This year’s contest for control of the Senate is likely to go down to the wire, and the outcome will have significant consequences for the final two years of the Trump presidency.