In 2026 governor races, local issues rival national trend

All politics is local—except when it isn’t. In principle, contests for governor are rooted in state concerns. But wave elections affect every race on the ballot. The losing side often suffers from demoralization and lower turnout among its regular supporters.

Past wave elections are instructive. Republicans flipped 12 governorships in the 2010 red wave, netting six, including the (then and in some cases still) swing states of Florida, Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Iowa. The GOP’s 2010 sweep, reinforced by further gains in 2014 and 2016, had a long afterlife in the form of control over redistricting, affecting both congressional and state legislative seats. Democrats regained much of the ground they had lost in their own 2018 wave election. Seven states replaced GOP governors with Democrats that year—among them Michigan, Wisconsin, and Nevada.

As a result, the country is split nearly evenly going into this year’s elections, with 26 governorships held by Republicans and 24 by Democrats. The Republican advantage is more pronounced when comparing each party’s “trifectas”—states in which a single party controls the governorship and both houses of the legislature. Currently, 23 states are governed by Republican trifectas, 16 by Democratic trifectas, and 11 states have divided government.

The 36 states electing governors in 2026 are evenly split between Democratic and Republican incumbents, and roughly a third of them are seen as competitive. When it comes to trifectas, the government relations firm MultiState sees 12 states in play. Trifectas are at risk of being broken in five states, four of them currently controlled by Republicans. New trifectas could be established in seven states. Democrats have trifecta opportunities in Minnesota, Nevada, and Pennsylvania; Republicans have opportunities in Kansas, and three states, Arizona, Michigan, and Wisconsin, are up for grabs.

Democrats are bullish on their opportunities for offense in what current polling suggests could be a wave year. But this year’s battleground extends deep into red-leaning terrain. Democrats will be defending governorships in five states that President Trump won in 2024—Arizona, Kansas, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. Only two Republican-held governorships are in states carried by Kamala Harris, New Hampshire and Vermont, and only New Hampshire is seen as potentially competitive.

What follows is an assessment of competitive races, our judgements based on polling, reporting, and the early September projections of the Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball based at the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics.

The core battleground

Georgia 

With Republican Gov. Brian Kemp term-limited, Georgia Democrats hope to win a gubernatorial contest for the first time since 1998. In an expensive and contentious GOP primary, health care executive Rick Jackson defeated Lieutenant Gov. Burt Jones in a runoff. Republican divisions and the strong Senate campaign being waged by incumbent Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-Ga.) have fueled the Democrats’ hopes for Keisha Lance Bottoms, a former mayor of Atlanta. If elected, Bottoms would break the Georgia GOP’s governing trifecta and would become the first Black woman elected governor of any state. Polling has shown Bottoms narrowly leading Jackson.

Iowa 

Despite trending red in the Trump era, Iowa hosts a highly competitive race to succeed retiring Gov. Kim Reynolds. State Auditor Rob Sand, currently Iowa’s only statewide elected Democrat, is running against businessman Zach Lahn, who won an upset victory over a splintered Republican field. Lahn touts his business acumen and outsider appeal as a devotee of Health and Human Services Secretary Robert Kennedy Jr.’s Make America Healthy Again movement. At the same time, Sand has taken aim at corruption, political complacency, and gerontocracy in both parties. But in an indicator of the local issues that still have outsize impacts in gubernatorial races, one of the summer’s biggest issues for both campaigns has been local water quality and elevated cancer rates associated with agricultural runoff. Recent polling has put Sand ahead, and in mid-August, Cook shifted its rating of the race in Sand’s favor. It’s striking that Sand has run almost as if he were an independent. His campaign distributes T-shirts with the words “Redder” and “Bluer” crossed off and emblazoned with “Truer. Better.”

Wisconsin 

The race for the Democratic nomination to succeed incumbent Gov. Tony Evers erupted into chaos in late July after both Lieutenant Gov. Sara Rodriguez and 2022 Senate nominee Mandela Barnes ended their campaigns. This upheaval left Francesca Hong, a state representative from Madison and a democratic socialist, with a commanding lead shortly before the primary. Democratic worries that Hong could cost the party a crucial swing-state governorship drove a last-minute consolidation behind Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley, who had previously dropped his campaign but reentered the race at the urging of Evers. Crowley’s narrow victory sets up a competitive race with Republican Representative Tom Tiffany, who easily won his primary after picking up an endorsement from President Trump. In the limited polling since the primary, Crowley has led Tiffany by 3 to 4 points in the Real Clear Politics (RCP) polling average.

Nevada 

Republican Gov. Joe Lombardo flipped the governor’s mansion for the GOP in 2022 but now faces a strong challenge from Democratic Attorney General Aaron Ford, making him the most endangered Republican incumbent of the cycle. Lombardo has governed fairly pragmatically alongside Nevada’s Democratic legislature, and he enters the general election with a massive fundraising advantage. Although Trump carried Nevada in 2024, his approval rating in the state has slumped into the mid-30s, and Democrats hope to tie Lombardo to the president. Ford’s campaign has vigorously courted Latino voters, who make up almost a third of the state’s population and shifted sharply toward Trump in 2024. Republican-sponsored polls have given Lombardo a lead, but Democratic-leaning and independent pollsters have shown a tight race.

Ohio 

In Ohio, businessman and 2024 Republican presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy is running to succeed term-limited Gov. Mike DeWine but is locked in an unexpectedly competitive race with former Ohio Department of Health Director Amy Acton. Ramaswamy is a staunch Trump backer who won the president’s early endorsement, a fact that the candidate is highlighting in a state that the president has won three times. Ramaswamy has also maintained a significant edge in fundraising and has so far massively outspent Acton in advertising. But Acton has run a vigorous campaign in a state that may be in a mood for change at the state level after 16 years of Republican leadership. She has attacked Ramaswamy for his role in DOGE and past comments threatening to cut Medicare, though her role in Ohio’s COVID-19 response has also drawn criticism from Republicans. RCP’s polling average shows the race essentially tied.

The outer battleground

Arizona 

In one of the marquee races of the 2022 cycle, then-Arizona Secretary of State Katie Hobbs secured a narrow victory, partly because of her polarizing opponent, news anchor and far-right activist Kari Lake. Hobbs will again face a controversial opponent in Republican Representative and former Freedom Caucus Chair Andy Biggs, though he has made efforts to moderate his rhetoric. Hobbs’ recent decision to select the city of Mesa’s former Republican mayor, John Giles, as her running mate could be read as an appeal to those same moderate voters. Hobbs currently has a solid lead in RCP’s polling average.

Michigan 

What once looked to be a competitive Democratic primary became a coronation for Michigan’s Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson after Lieutenant Gov. Garlin Gilchrist exited the race and Democrat-turned-independent Mike Duggan, a former mayor of Detroit, ended a bid that had threatened to draw Democrat-leaning voters away. By contrast, Rep. John James (R-Mich.), the Republican nominee for Senate in 2018 and 2020, found himself in a bitter primary race against self-funding businessman Perry Johnson for the Republican nomination. While Michigan’s narrow partisan divide and the prospect of a close race for the Senate leave an opening for James, Benson is solidly ahead in polling averages.

Kansas 

Republicans see Kansas as their best pickup opportunity, with incumbent Laura Kelly term-limited. The Trump-endorsed state Senate President Ty Masterson comfortably won a seven-candidate Republican primary, leaning on his success in enacting conservative legislation over Kelly’s veto. State Sen. Cindy Holscher won the Democratic nomination with a populist campaign that included outspoken opposition to data centers, defeating Kelly’s preferred candidate, state Sen. Ethan Corson. Kansas has demonstrated an openness to Democratic gubernatorial candidates, but Kansas has not elected consecutive governors of the same party since the mid-1960s, giving Republicans hope for restoring a governing trifecta.

Potential surprises

If a Democratic wave starts building, the two seemingly solid Republican states of Texas and Florida will be key tests of how big it is.

In Texas, where Republican Gov. Greg Abbott is seeking an unprecedented fourth term against Democratic state Rep. Gina Hinojosa, Cook and then Sabato caused a stir in August when they downrated Abbott’s chances, shifting the race from “solid” to “likely” Republican. Hinojosa will get help from Democrat James Talarico’s strong U.S. Senate run and a sharp shift among the state’s Latino voters away from Trump and the Republicans.

In Florida, former Rep. David Jolly, a former Republican turned Democrat, has run a vigorous campaign in a state roiled by high home insurance rates and the growing opposition to data centers. The Republican nominee, Rep. Byron Donalds (R-Fla.), is a passionate Trump supporter, so a Jolly upset would send an especially powerful message in the state the president now calls home.

Alaska’s voting system complicates predictions of the final outcome. In the first round of voting, involving two Democratic candidates, 12 Republicans, and three independents, the Republicans collectively secured roughly 49% of the vote to about 43% for the two Democrats. Under Alaska law, four contenders appear on the November ballot, and the outcome is determined by ranked-choice voting. The number two Democrat, Tom Begich, dropped out to leave the number one finisher, former state Rep. Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins as the only Democrat on the final ballot. As of early September, the three leading Republicans on the ballot were conservative radio host Bernadette Wilson, former Anchorage Mayor Dave Bronson, and former Alaska Attorney General Treg Taylor, who was briefly disqualified for financial disclosure irregularities before being recertified by the Alaska Division of Elections over Labor Day weekend. The race is generally seen as tilting in the Republicans’ favor, but Democrat Mary Peltola’s strong campaign for the U.S. senate could help Kreiss-Tomkins.

Democratic Gov. Tina Kotek in Oregon and Republican Gov. Kelly Ayotte in New Hampshire are rated as likely to win, but both—particularly Kotek—face vigorous challenges. The particulars of their time in office count most. But if their contests are close, they could be quintessential cases of how the overall partisan mood can tip the balance in the battle for state houses.