How the Trump administration is eroding the immigrant talent pipeline

Introduction

High-skill immigrants have long been central to American innovation and economic growth. Foreign-born students, scientists, engineers, and other skilled workers strengthen the firms and universities they join, start their own businesses at high rates, and contribute far more in taxes than they receive in public benefits. For decades, these contributions have made high-skill immigration one of the few areas of immigration policy to attract broad support across party lines.

The ability to attract skilled foreign talent depends on a pipeline: International students come to U.S. universities to study at the undergraduate or graduate level, many remain through temporary post-study work opportunities or employer-sponsored visas, and some eventually become lawful permanent residents. Despite early signals of support for high-skill immigration pathways from Trump and his allies in the technology sector, the administration’s actions so far have squeezed multiple segments of the talent pipeline: student visas, Optional Practical Training (OPT), H-1B visas, and employment-based green cards. The system has never been easy to navigate, but recent actions by the Trump administration have made it substantially more restrictive.

Those changes matter not only for the individuals directly affected but also for the broader U.S. economy. When talented foreign students and workers face greater barriers to studying, working, and settling in the United States, American universities lose students, employers lose workers, and the country risks ceding innovation and investment to global competitors. In this piece, we describe the main high-skill immigration pathways, summarize evidence on their economic importance, and explain how recent policy changes are weakening the immigrant talent pipeline.

F-1, OPT, H-1B, and EB: An alphabet soup of visa options for skilled immigrant students and workers

The high-skill immigration pipeline is comprised of several stages, starting with education, followed by temporary work, and concluding with becoming a permanent resident (see Table 1 for a summary of the most common visa options for high-skill foreigners). Not all immigrants follow the pipeline exactly as described above—it is possible to enter on a temporary work visa after completing education abroad, and a small number of employment-based green cards are issued to those outside the U.S.—but disruptions in any part of the pathway have downstream implications. Each year roughly 40% of initial temporary worker approvals (H-1B) were formerly on a student visa (F-1 or F-2)¹ and roughly three-quarters of green cards (EB visas) were issued through “adjustments of status,” meaning recipients were already in the United States on a temporary visa.

International Students: F-1 and Optional Practical Training (OPT)

The number of international students studying in the U.S. has risen dramatically over the last few decades, reaching an all-time high of 1.18 million in the 2024-2025 school year.² Foreign undergraduate and graduate students who seek to study in the U.S. primarily do so through the F-1 visa. F-1 visas are most often used by students of South or East Asian origin, with Chinese and Indian students receiving almost 43% of such visas issued in 2024; those groups are projected to receive about a third of F-1 visas in 2025 (see Figure 1). Of the international students attending school in the United States in the 2024-2025 academic year, the largest share, 41% (488,000), were pursuing a graduate degree.

After graduation, F-1 visa holders are eligible to participate in Optional Practical Training (OPT), which grants them permission to work in the U.S. for 12 months during or after the completion of their academic program. Graduates from STEM degree programs are eligible for a 24-month extension beyond the first year, allowing them to work in the U.S. on their student visa for three years after graduation in total. This program is popular among international students—according to one study, 72% of graduates participated in OPT after completing their degree program. There were over 290,000 students on OPT in the 2024-2025 school year, more than in any prior year. Foreign graduates of U.S. universities often use OPT as a stopgap to stay in the U.S. while they try to obtain another type of visa, such as H-1B or an Employment Based (EB) green card.

Primary pathway for non-immigrant temporary workers: H-1B visas

H-1B is a category of non-immigrant visas primarily for individuals who come to the U.S. to work in a “specialty occupation” which requires “theoretical and practical application of a body of highly specialized knowledge,” and attainment of at least a bachelor’s degree or a foreign equivalent.³ This is the most common visa issued for temporary workers and is therefore the focus of this section (less common options include L-1 and O-1 visas.)⁴ H-1B visas grant permission to live and work in the U.S. for three years, with the possibility of a three-year extension.⁵ Applicants must have an employer willing to sponsor them for the visa. FWD.US estimates that there were about 730,000 H-1B holders in the country in 2025.

Sponsors of H-1Bs are often major technology companies. As shown in Figure 2, in FY2025, Amazon received the highest number of approvals of any company with over 13,000. In the first quarter of FY2026, Amazon already had over 2,000 approvals, similar to the totals across the entire last fiscal year for companies like IBM and Cisco Systems. H-1B approvals tend to be most prevalent in the “Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services” industry, employing 42% of all H-1B visa approvals in 2025.⁶

The number of new visas granted is subject to an annual cap of 65,000, with an additional 20,000 for individuals with a master’s degree or higher, most often graduating from a U.S. university. If the number of registrations exceeds the cap, visas are distributed via a random lottery. In recent years, the number of registrations has far exceeded the cap; for FY2026 there were 343,981 eligible registrations in the March 2025 lottery, of which 120,141 were selected.⁷ University employers, nonprofits, and government research organizations are exempt from the cap and lottery, meaning the total number of H-1B entrants exceeds 85,000. These initial employment approvals only make up about a third of the total H-1B approvals in any given year—between 250,000 and 300,000 approvals are “continuing employment,” or renewals (and are not subject to caps).

Permanent employment-based immigration: Employment-Based (EB) visas

Employment-Based (EB) visas are a category of visas that grant lawful permanent resident (LPR) status to beneficiaries. There are five subcategories of EB visas, of which the first three roughly correspond to different skill levels: EB-1 is reserved for people of “extraordinary ability,” including “outstanding professors and researchers” and “multinational managers or executives;” EB-2 is reserved for individuals “holding advanced degrees or … with exceptional ability;” and EB-3 is largely reserved for other professionals and skilled workers. EB-4 is a catch-all category of certain other types of immigrant workers, and EB-5 is reserved for “immigrant investors,” individuals who invest $1,050,000 or more in an “enterprise that employs at least 10 full-time U.S. workers.”

The base annual cap for all categories of EB visas is set at 140,000 and has not changed since 1990, but the actual cap fluctuates year to year.⁸ Spouses and minor children of sponsored workers are counted against the cap, so only about half of these visas go to sponsored workers. Individual countries are also subject to a ceiling of 7% of the total worldwide employment-based visa allocation across all categories. This can create lengthy backlogs for workers from certain countries. We estimate that almost 1.2 million immigrants and their families are stuck in green card backlogs, of whom approximately 627,000 were born in India.⁹

As shown in Figure 3, three-quarters of new EB visas issued are “adjustments of status,” meaning they are granted to individuals already present in the U.S. on a non-immigrant visa, often from H-1B visas. This underscores the importance of the talent pipeline—the vast majority of high-skill immigrants either were either educated or worked temporarily in the United States before immigrating.

The importance of high-skill immigration in the United States

Higher education and students

Though Trump administration officials have suggested that American students are being rejected from universities because their spots are “taken by a foreign student,” the evidence suggests that on average, international students subsidize U.S.-born students rather than crowding them out, particularly at public universities.¹⁰ This result is unsurprising given that the majority of international students pay the full cost of tuition at public institutions, or in some cases significantly more. Eighty-two percent of international undergraduates and 59% of international graduate students primarily pay for their education through personal and family funding, which means that money from other countries flows into the American economy when international students attend college in the U.S.

The impact of foreign students extends beyond just tuition revenue. Last academic year, NAFSA: Association of International Educators (NAFSA) estimated that international students supported more than 350,000 jobs and contributed $42.9 billion to the U.S. economy. Moreover, foreign educational expenditure is considered an educational export, which helps to improve the trade deficit. According to data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, the educational trade surplus was over $42 billion in 2024.¹¹

Firms and workers

High-skill immigrants also contribute to the U.S. economy by enhancing the productivity of existing firms and by disproportionately pursuing entrepreneurship and innovation. Not only do immigrants as a whole file more patents than their share of the population, a 2022 study found that immigrants’ total contribution to U.S. innovation also includes indirect channels such as exposing U.S. workers to new tools and technologies. They estimate that since 1990, 36% of total U.S. innovation can be attributed to immigrants.

The productivity increase stemming from high-skill immigrants, particularly those in STEM fields, has been well-documented. Most of this literature focuses on H-1B visa holders, as the visa allocation by lottery provides a convenient study design. One study estimated that inflows of foreign STEM H-1B workers caused between 30% and 50% of aggregate nationwide productivity growth in the U.S. economy between 1990 and 2010. Another found that firms who win the H-1B lottery experience a 27% increase in revenue compared to otherwise-similar firms who lose. The findings are not universal, however, with some studies finding no productivity gains for firms that win the H-1B lottery versus firms that do not.

There is also active debate about the labor market effects of the H-1B program for U.S. natives, with concern expressed that H-1B holders are paid below market wages. The minimum required wage levels for H-1B visa holders are set by whichever metric is higher: the actual wage paid to other similarly employed workers (the “prevailing wage”) or the average wage of the occupation, experience level, and geographic area in which they are working.¹² Some argue that these wage standards do not accurately reflect compensation for entry level employees. 

U.S. Social Security and fiscal situation

America faces an entitlement program crisis that high-skill immigration can help to solve. The Social Security trust fund is expected to be exhausted by the early 2030s, which necessitates that policymakers examine new solutions to bolster its finances. The 2025 Social Security Trustees Report shows a long-run deficit in the program that is about 26% smaller in the high-immigration scenario compared to a low-immigration scenario.¹³ Though positive fiscal contributions exist across all levels of educational attainment, a new Cato Institute report estimates that between 1994 and 2023, college-educated immigrants have paid $8.8 trillion dollars (inflation-adjusted 2024 dollars) more in taxes than they have received in benefits, excluding interest savings.

Recent attacks on the high-skill immigration pipeline

Recent policy changes enacted by the Trump administration affect multiple stages of the high-skill immigration pipeline, from initial college enrollment decisions to longer-term retention in the U.S. labor market. Taken together, these efforts compound and have the potential to reduce both the inflow of high-skill immigrants and the likelihood that those already present remain and contribute to the U.S. economy.

Prospective and current students

Recent actions affecting international students impact the high-skill immigration talent pipeline through both demand and supply-side channels. Frequent attacks on the speech of foreign-born students and increased oversight may dissuade future international students from pursuing their education in the U.S. Last spring, the administration terminated the Student and Exchange Visitor Information System (SEVIS) status of 1,800 international students without warning, many targeting students from Muslim-majority countries and students who were involved in pro-Palestine protests.¹⁴ Earlier this year, the Department of State (DOS) touted their revocation of 8,000 student visas who had encounters with U.S. law enforcement since the Trump administration took office, via X. In some cases, ICE cited minor criminal infractions such as traffic violations as the reason for termination, and in others they claimed that the students’ presence could cause “potentially serious adverse foreign policy consequences,” a designation that had previously been used only in rare circumstances. Though the administration ultimately released high-profile arrestees after many students filed lawsuits and these efforts affected only a small fraction of students, such actions may deter future international students from studying in the U.S. and have a chilling effect on the speech of those who do. It is still unclear how much these actions have affected or will affect student demand.

On the supply side, many of the structural reforms to the student visa process make it more difficult for those who wish to study in the United States. In January 2026, the Trump administration blocked new non-immigrant visa issuances for 38 countries as part of a broader travel ban. This affected meaningful numbers of students; DOS issued almost 19,000 F-1 visas (5% of total new issuances) to students from these countries in 2024. Additionally, last August the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) proposed a new rule that would limit the amount of time F-1 visa holders could stay in the United States to four years curbing visa abuse.¹⁵ This may limit opportunities for graduate and doctoral students who wish to pursue their studies in America, as many participate in degree programs that are expected to take more than four years to complete.

Last May, DOS ordered U.S. embassies and consular sections to pause interviews for student visas in preparation for the new student visa social media vetting it announced a month later. In June, DOS announced that it would require applicants for student visas to make their social media accounts public so the agency could screen applicants for “threat[s] to U.S. national security.” DOS also sent a cable to embassies and consulates which further clarifies what investigators should look for, but because the department has provided limited detail about the application of these standards in practice, significant uncertainty remains about how the policy is interpreted across cases.

Restrictions on the supply of international students have not only targeted the students themselves but also the universities that host them. Last May, then-DHS Secretary Kristi Noem attempted to revoke Harvard University’s permission to enroll international students due to alleged “pro-terrorist conduct.” Harvard immediately sued, and the following month a judge ordered a preliminary injunction allowing the school to continue hosting international students. There has not yet been a final judgement made on the case, leaving the school and its international students in a state of uncertainty.

For these reasons and potentially others, there has been a substantial decline in foreign-born enrollment. As shown in Figure 4, we project that the number of new F-1 visas issued in 2025 will fall by 29% based on the reported decline in visa issuances for the first eight months of the calendar year.¹⁶

Our finding is based on new data and only on F-1 visa issuances, a leading indicator for new international student enrollment. While obtaining an F-1 visa is a necessary step for most first-time international students to enroll in U.S. higher education, it is only a proxy for new enrollment. For example, students who transition directly from undergraduate to graduate programs within the U.S. are often counted as “new” enrollees, but they do not always need to reapply for an F-1 visa. Additionally, some individuals who receive an F-1 visa do not ultimately matriculate at an American university.

For information on enrollment, a widely cited survey of 828 universities by the Institute for International Education (IIE) found that in the fall of 2025, 17% fewer international students began their studies at U.S. universities relative to 2024. Based on that finding, NAFSA predicts foreign student’s contributions to the American economy will drop by $1.1 billion, costing nearly 23,000 jobs in the 2025-2026 academic year. As shown in Figure 5, California and New York, the two states with the largest international student populations, are projected to face the largest total declines of $161.9 million and $152.5 million, respectively. On a per-capita basis, this decline is expected to hit Massachusetts the hardest, costing $13 in revenue per resident of the state.

OPT and transition to work

In addition to implementing the new restrictions on student visas, which also apply to OPT beneficiaries, members of the Trump administration have expressed desire to eliminate or curtail the OPT program all together. The current director of U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services, Joseph Edlow, indicated during his confirmation hearing that he would seek to effectively end OPT. Recently, in a response to a letter from Senator Eric Schmitt (R-MO), then-DHS Secretary Noem wrote that the department “is reevaluating whether the current regulatory framework—including the scope and duration of practical training—appropriately serves U.S. labor market, tax, and national security interests and remains aligned with congressional intent.” DHS will likely provide more clarity in the coming months. Ending OPT might have a ripple effect on the talent pipeline—without OPT, it will likely be harder for foreign-born workers to build relationships with U.S. employers, which may make it harder to find a sponsor for an H-1B or EB visa.

H-1B Access

In September, the White House announced  imposition of a $100,000 fee on new H-1B petitions, ostensibly to prevent employers from abusing the H-1B to “artificially suppress wages” for U.S.-born workers. There are some significant exceptions: The fee does not apply to existing H-1B beneficiaries applying for renewals or individuals already in the U.S. on another visa who change their status to H-1B. Additionally, the DHS secretary may waive the fee for petitions if hiring an H-1B worker in an occupation “is in the national interest and does not pose a threat to the security or welfare of the United States.” This criterion is ill-defined and grants the secretary wide latitude in the decision-making process. So far, news reports indicate that only about 85 companies have paid the fee. The fee increase has been challenged in courts across the country, including by the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, and is still tied up in the courts.¹⁷

Additionally, in late December, DHS published a final rule amending the lottery process for H-1B visas from a random lottery to a weighted process that favors skill and wage, giving priority to higher paid workers.¹⁸ The reweighting of the lottery will likely make it more difficult for workers in lower-paying sectors or earlier in their careers to obtain H-1B visas, which poses a threat to the international student-to-H-1B pipeline. As of the writing of this piece, no business has filed a lawsuit to challenge the new rule in court. The rule went into effect on February 27 of this year and will apply to the FY2027 H-1B lottery, which began on March 4, 2026.

Despite policy changes, we do not expect to see the same drop in H-1B visas that we saw in F-1 issuances. Unlike F-1 student visas, H-1B visas are subject to a cap (which was hit for FY2027 on March 31, 2026, only 25 days after the application opened) and excess demand for the program remains.

International moves to capture foreign talent

Recognizing the importance of highly skilled immigrants to the economy and taking advantage of the less welcoming environment in the United States, several countries have taken steps to expand their international talent pipelines. Towards the end of 2025, China unveiled the K-visa, the Chinese equivalent of the American H-1B, in an attempt to attract foreign workers. This move, coupled with campaigns to attract high-skill foreign talent, is one example of a strategic attempt from a direct economic competitor to capitalize on U.S. restrictions on immigration. Other countries in the Western hemisphere, including Canada and Germany, have enacted similar policy changes to ease skilled immigration into their countries. Evidence suggests that increased American restrictions on H-1B visa holders may lead to greater offshoring from multi-national corporations, particularly to China, India, and Canada. Restrictive American visa policies and the response from foreign governments may have detrimental effects on U.S. economic competitiveness and accelerate brain drain, especially in the technology industry.

Conclusion

The United States has long benefited from its ability to attract talented students and skilled workers from around the world. High-skill foreign-born workers make significant economic contributions to the United States, which has led to consistent bipartisan support for high-skill immigration. The high-skill immigration system depends on a pipeline that allows for multiple entry points: study, temporary work, and permanent residency. As described in this piece, recent actions by the Trump administration have threatened each segment of the pipeline.

Restrictions on high-skill immigration carry real economic costs. When international students decide not to enroll, universities lose tuition revenue and research talent. When employers face greater barriers to hiring skilled workers, firms lose access to people who contribute to innovation, productivity, and job creation. The competitive edge that the United States has sustained by being the most attractive destination for global talent can no longer be taken for granted.

For decades, the high-skill immigration system has been overly complex and in need of reform. The system has long been characterized by lengthy immigration backlogs and inadequate numbers of visas available through legal pathways. Adding new restrictions, higher costs, and greater uncertainty to the migration of skilled immigrants threatens to erode one of the United States’ most important economic strengths. As a key step early in the talent pipeline, reductions in international student visas may have ramifications for years to come. Policymakers should focus on preserving a core engine of the U.S. economy—the ability to attract and retain people from around the world who contribute to growth, innovation, and competitiveness.