Harris and Trump are vying for middle-class voters. But who really is the middle class?

In the parlance of political discourse, the “middle class” is frequently invoked as a social aspiration and a cornerstone of economic policy. The current presidential candidates’ rhetoric is no exception. Vice President Kamala Harris, speaking at the Economic Club of Pittsburgh last month, said, “I intend to chart a new way forward and grow America’s middle class.” She added, “When the middle class is strong, America is strong, and we can build a stronger middle class.” 

Similarly, during a recent campaign rally in Michigan, former President Donald Trump said, “On November 5, we will save our economy, we will rescue our middle class, [and] we will reclaim our sovereignty.”  

More than just an economic bracket, the middle class symbolizes a collective aspiration of stability and opportunity. Naturally, the middle class is a highly sought-after demographic in electoral politics. Yet as frequently as the term is used, the definition of “middle class” is not uniform, and even within the bounds of a single definition, its composition varies significantly based on geographic location and identity. Wealth disparities among different racial and ethnic groups complicate the landscape, challenging the notion of a homogenous middle-class experience. 

Aggregate analyses of the middle class mask substantive differences across race and place. This report examines these differences so that voters can understand the diversity and complexity of middle-class America outside of political rhetoric, as it has implications on what policies will equitably and effectively expand opportunity, wealth, and quality of life.  

How we measure the middle class 

There are various ways of measuring the middle class: by income or wealth, by living standards such as home value, or by non-monetary or social characteristics such as education. The metrics used are important because identifying as “middle class” has political and social implications. 

Brookings’ Future of the Middle Class Initiative states the middle class is an economic class comprised of the middle 60% of households in the income and earnings distribution. Another definition defines the middle class in terms of thresholds of consumption expenditure percentile (i.e., cutoff points that divide people into groups based on how much they spend relative to others), such as the group of households lying between the 20th and 80th percentile on the consumption expenditure distribution—a measure of the actual dollar value of consumption rather than income. The economic definition of middle class also varies widely between countries based on the level of economic development and other factors that impact how people live. In addition, non-economic definitions incorporate cultural characteristics such as mindset and behavior, while some argue that credentials such as occupation and education level define the middle class. A true definition of the middle class is perhaps a cumulation of these factors, since they reinforce each other in many ways and are highly correlated. 

Although there is no universally accepted definition of “middle class,” this report uses a widely recognized one that aligns well with economic interpretations found in the literature. Specifically, we use the Brookings Institution’s definition of middle class: the middle 60% of the households on the income distribution. We combine it with the Tax Policy Center’s income brackets, so that a household is middle class if it earned an income between $30,000 and $153,000 in 2022 dollars.  

This definition of middle class offers several advantages over alternatives such as median income or narrower income percentile thresholds. It is precise, relative, and ensures that a constant share of households is considered. Additionally, it is symmetric around the mean and broad enough to accurately capture the American middle class. Using this threshold and data from the 2017 and 2022 American Community Survey (ACS) and corresponding IPUMS USA data, we further analyze the middle class by race and place in various metropolitan areas across the U.S.  

As Figure 1 illustrates, the middle class earns a proportionately smaller share of the income pie compared to high-income households, who account for a disproportionately large share. This vast difference in the amount of income shared by income classes highlights the challenges middle-class households face in retaining economic power individually and collectively. Figure 1 also reveals the structural advantage held by high-income households, who not only benefit from higher earnings but also exert outsized economic power. Furthermore, while the middle class dominates in numeric representation, analyzing its share at the national level masks significant variation across regions and racial groups.  

At a local level, household income impacts livelihoods differently depending on location and relative cost of living. Therefore, our analysis adjusts household income based on two characteristics: 1) the Bureau of Economic Analysis’ regional price parities, which estimate how much prices across geographic areas differ from the national average; and 2) average household size, which directly impacts consumption expenditure per person in a household. To measure the share of middle-class households across 211 metropolitan areas, this report modifies local measures of income class by adjusting for these variables using a previous approach from Brookings’ Future of the Middle Class Initiative. This adjustment allows us to more accurately compare cities with different costs of living. For example, in the New York metro area, a household needs to earn roughly 13% more than the national average to be considered middle class; while in Saginaw, Mich., a household can earn 13% less than the national average.   

Middle-class households vary by race, ethnicity, and place 

Adjusting for cost of living and household size highlights the range of middle-class households across metropolitan areas. For example, after making those adjustments, the middle class in the San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, Calif. metro area is made up of households making between $39,082 and $199,317. With this adjusted range, the San Jose metro area has one of the smallest shares of middle-class households, at 41.35%. Conversely, Fort Wayne, Ind. has one of the largest, at 70.95%, with a middle-class household income range of $29,172 to $148,777. The map below shows the share of middle-class households in 211 metro areas; darker bubbles indicate larger middle-class shares, and larger bubbles indicate higher income ranges than the national average. 

Middle-class distributions vary by place, as shown in Map 1, but they also vary by race. Nationally, white families made up a larger share of the middle class compared to other racial and ethnic groups in both 2017 and 2022. Table 1 below shows the makeup of middle-class households based on the race or ethnicity of their primary householder for these years compared to overall U.S. racial and ethnic household distributions. White households’ disproportionately high share of the middle class continued despite increased middle-class shares of Latino or Hispanic, Asian American or Pacific Islander, and multiracial households. 

The racial and ethnic composition of the middle class accentuates wealth disparities across race, which saw Black households holding $17,110 less on average than nonwhite Latino or Hispanic households in 2022, and $240,110 less than white households. These disparities persist within the middle class: Median income was $65,000 for middle-class Black households; $70,000 for middle-class Latino or Hispanic households; and $75,800 for middle-class white households. Therefore, even within the same income class, different races and ethnic groups earn different amounts. 

Middle-class variation for Black and Latino or Hispanic households by place 

Black and Latino or Hispanic households made up nearly one-third of the U.S. population in 2022, but accounted for only 19.8% of the middle class. The maps below show the variation of Black and Latino or Hispanic middle-class representation by metropolitan area. Darker circles represent greater middle-class representation from these minority groups, and larger circles indicate larger shares of Black and Latino or Hispanic populations in those places. There is not a strong correlation between minority population share and that population’s middle-class representation. 

For Black households, middle-class shares varied from 41.47% in Yuma, Ariz. to 83.9% in Johnson City, Tenn. For Latino or Hispanic households, middle-class shares ranged even further, from 37.6% in Springfield, Ill. to 94.1% in Stockton, Calif. There is variation of middle-class concentrations by region, with notable concentrations of Black middle-class households in the Midwest and South, and Latino or Hispanic concentrations in the West and New England. Florida has four of the top 10 metropolitan areas in terms of the percentage of Black households in the middle class (see Figure 2), and 12 metropolitan areas where more than 70% of Latino or Hispanic households are middle class. On the other coast, California is home to all of the top 10 metro areas for middle-class representation for Latino or Hispanic households. Nevada, an important swing state for the 2024 election, is home to the third highest concentration of middle-class Black families.  

The implications of the middle class on the 2024 election 

Given the racial disparities within the middle class, political rhetoric during this presidential cycle must directly address these inequalities to ensure that the diverse experiences and needs of all groups are recognized and represented. Effective discourse around the middle class should not only acknowledge these disparities, but also advocate for policies that maximize the ability for all groups to achieve middle-class status. 

In all seven critical swing states, there are disparities between the overall share of middle-class households and the share of Black middle-class households in metropolitan areas. In North Carolina, where several cities have significant shares of Black middle-class households, 60.6% of Black households were middle class, compared to the state’s overall middle class representation of 63.7%. The largest gap is in Wisconsin, where only 59.1% of Black households are classified as middle class, compared to 69.1% of the overall state population. 

The reality is very different for Latino or Hispanic households in swing states. Five states show higher shares of middle-class Latino or Hispanic households than for the state overall. For example, in North Carolina, roughly 69.1% of Latino of Hispanic households are in the middle class, compared to 63.7% of households overall. These above-average concentrations of middle-class households may indicate a barrier for wealth accumulation and upward mobility to becoming high-income households. However these higher concentrations of middle-class Latino or Hispanic households also reflect mobility out of the low-income class, and may be attributed to higher rates of educational attainment, especially among women, and higher homeownership rates. 

Equity matters in middle-class policymaking 

Even though politicians often clumsily group individuals with vastly different economic realities into the broad category of “the middle class,” it is clear that this group is not a monolith. The disparities in income and wealth among middle-class households across different races and metropolitan areas underscore the critical importance of equity in policymaking. Recognizing these differences in policy is an essential aspect of equity work. 

Despite being labeled a “dirty word” and often dismissed as an ideological construct, equity is essential for creating effective policies that truly support all families within the middle class. The wide range of middle-class income levels—from $26,409 to $134,689 in Johnson City, Tenn., for instance—demonstrates that a one-size-fits-all approach is insufficient. For example, policies to increase housing affordability must not only accommodate these varying income levels, but also address the historical injustices faced by racial groups who have been disproportionately impacted by past policies that, while seemingly race-neutral, have perpetuated wealth gaps. 

To foster a thriving middle class, we must recognize that equity is not a political talking point—it is a practical necessity of good government and a moral imperative. Policies should aim to level the playing field, ensuring that all families—regardless of race or income—have access to opportunities that enable them to build wealth and a better quality of life. By prioritizing equity, we can create policies that genuinely uplift the entire middle class, paving the way for a more just and equitable society for future generations.