The new geopolitics of Turkey and the West
What’s next for the war(s) in Syria?
On refugee integration and the Global Compact on Refugees: Lessons from Turkey
The greatest threat from the U.S. perspective is direct military conflict between Turkish and American forces...Erdogan seems determined to force the Americans to fulfill past promises that YPG forces would return east of the Euphrates. The challenge for the US is whether that promise can be kept while also maintaining order on the ground.
It is too soon to tell whether Pompeo would take a different approach toward Turkey...Though I wouldn’t expect the direction of U.S. policy to change significantly...The working groups put in place after Tillerson’s Ankara meetings were something that multiple other secretaries of state had used in the past to address tough policy issues, and there [is] no reason why this particular group could not continue under the new leadership...[Moreover], U.S. policy on the issues of Brunson and Gülen will not change.
During the war against ISIS, the U.S. was able to quell Turkey's concerns [about U.S. cooperation with the YPG] with the greater good. Kick the can down the road, if you will. [With the counter-ISIS fight winding down,] Turkey sees [continued U.S.] partnership [with the YPG] as an American security guarantee for the YPG and their activities in the region. The U.S., on the other hand, sees its presence as vital to counter Iranian influence and to support the liberated areas. What's happened in Afrin is bringing the contradictions of U.S. policy to the forefront. The move to build a border security force has led Turkey to further doubt the U.S... The U.S. needs a coherent internal plan to solve their differences, and then come up with a regional plan for Syria.
Δεν νομίζω [πως η Δύση χάνει την Τουρκία] αν και υπάρχουν συζητήσεις στην Ουάσιγκτον και σε ευρωπαϊκές πρωτεύουσες για το ποιο είδος σχέσης με την Άγκυρα είναι δυνατό... Η αντιδυτική ρητορική δεν είναι νέο φαινόμενο στην Τουρκία, αλλά σήμερα έχει διαβρωτική επίδραση, καθώς είναι αντίθετη στα τουρκικά συμφέροντα, υποβαθμίζοντας τις νόμιμες ανησυχίες ασφαλείας.