Taiwan
Reports
If it appears that the U.S. punishes these countries and China does nothing, then no other countries in the future would have the same level of incentive to sever their diplomatic ties with Taiwan.
We experienced an anomalous period when Ma [Ying-jeou], Obama, and Xi were in office where relations between Taipei, Washington, and Beijing were largely constructive. Some of the muscle memory in Washington atrophied a bit. With the elections of Tsai [Ing-wen] and Trump, things have reverted back to the historical mean of increased sensitivity around Taiwan.
