Northeast Asia

If you look at the population [of South Korea] you have a large percentage of the older generation that has consistently been anti-Moon Jae-in. They are a large voting population and they go out to vote in larger numbers than the younger generation.

Moon [Jae-in] is very vulnerable in terms of the conservative vote, which Ahn Cheol-soo has more of. Moon is vulnerable because of…the fear of conservatives that he’s going to give the store away to North Korea. But even if Moon’s comments reflect over 50% of how the population feels about sexuality, it’s still a cheap shot.

The president is surrounded by serious advisers who have either served or serve in the military, and are aware of the risks of military action [against North Korea]. I think Trump, whatever his public posture, is getting a sober education on some of the realities.

Deterrence [against North Korea] has worked remarkably well for more than 60 years as both sides understand the consequences of taking military action. The question is whether those ground rules are changing now. I don't believe they are. Still, miscalculation is a concern and too much rhetoric and idle chatter from both sides about preemptive strikes could lead one side to seriously consider taking action. There are extraordinary inhibitions in the use of force, but that's not a guarantee.

[The exchange of threats and military posturing between the United States and North Korea] raises the stakes. With the United States and others talking far too loosely about the prospects of a pre-emptive strike, that’s what would trigger retaliatory actions by North Korea.

[With the current level of tensions over North Korea,] [w]e could stumble needlessly into what would be the biggest crisis in East Asia since the United States intervened in the Korean War in 1950