Middle East & North Africa

People want to see someone who can govern Turkey during tumultuous times. Erdoğan is saying, "I’m the only guy who can steer this ship to a safe harbour in stormy weather."

This is the most tense moment I have seen in Turkish society... [The elections] are going to be about the future direction of the country and two radically different visions of where Turkey will go. And the opposition is galvanized... More than anything else, the earthquake consolidates the two sides.

[The military's] veneer of invincibility [has been cracked in the last 48 hours. But the army warned Wednesday that further attacks would be] severely retaliated against. It is still the most powerful institution in Pakistan, and will not let go of that position easily.

Khan's arrest by paramilitary forces – and the manner of the arrest, with dozens of forces in riot gear – is not about any corruption case against Khan, as was the pretext for the arrest, but should be seen in the context of his recent comments against officials in the military and intelligence services. Those comments seem to have been the military's 'red line.' Khan's popular support has protected him against the [military] establishment over the last year; but now that the establishment has asserted itself, it's hard to see it backing down, and difficult to see how the situation will deescalate. This is a very dangerous development.

It’s hard to see how the situation de-escalates from here. Khan’s popular support has protected him against the establishment’s assertiveness until now. But now that the establishment has asserted itself, it’s hard to see it backing down anytime soon. Volatile, dangerous times [are] ahead for Pakistan.

[Regarding fears that the political unrest in Pakistan could lead to a dramatic, anti-democratic intervention, such as a military coup,] it’s hard to see how the political situation deescalates now; this is a very dangerous development and dashes any hopes for Pakistan’s political stability.

[Imran Khan's arrest is] about Khan crossing the military’s ‘red line’ with his recent comments against officials in the military and intelligence services. It is about Khan’s escalating confrontation with the military establishment over the last year, and the fact that the latter sees Khan as an existential threat.

[The military in Pakistan says it has no plans to seize power, but...] Pakistan can't really escape its 75-year history where this was a repeated occurrence. I think now we're hearing rumblings because the crises, you know, plural, are so acute.

Kılıçdaroğlu is the antithesis of Erdoğan [...]. To Erdoğan’s virile political aggression, he is a soft-spoken gentleman. In terms of his platform, he is not just a democrat but is promising to be a uniter.

[The clashes between institutions in Pakistan is expected to escalate, with judiciary, politics and constitutional crises becoming immersed with the financial breakdown.] I see the crisis as one that is deepening, and it is very difficult to see a way out. All Pakistan's institutions are muddied — the military, the legislature and civilian government, the judiciary. The military and judicial branches are both completely politicized and polarizing; they don't have the trust of the people, and they can't pull Pakistan out of the current crisis. [The current government is taking tough financial measures in a bid to revive an IMF bailout.] The state is playing a heavy hand with the opposition. In the meantime, while these institutions play their political games, the common man is dealing with backbreaking inflation, 46% [on an annual level] last week. The only way out is elections, which are to be held sometime this year; and these elections must be free and fair, without sidelining the current opposition.