As President Obama prepares for his State of the Union Address, Foreign Policy at Brookings issues the 2014 edition of “Big Bets & Black Swans: A Presidential Briefing Book,” with new interactive features and a live webcast event on Thursday, January 23 at 11:00 a.m. (EST). Foreign Policy started the Big Bets & Black Swans project in 2013, timed with the beginning of President Obama’s second term in office.
This year, the memos are divided into five categories: Big Bets, Double Downs, Black Swans, Nightmares and Holds.
The memos in each category are previewed here.
The Nightmares, “events that look more likely than a Black Swan and could prove particularly troublesome for U.S. interests and the global order, and for which the administration should prepare,” are:
Rather than serving as a unifying diplomatic exercise to highlight Iran’s troubling regional activities, the [Warsaw] summit primarily highlighted America’s diplomatic isolation from its European allies.