What Brookings Experts Are Saying about the 2014 Midterm Election Results

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11:35 pm

As George Will likes to say: Well. Senate map favors Dems in 2016 but if GOP piles up a big majority tonight, retaking it ’16 much harder

— EJ Dionne (@EJDionne) November 5, 2014

11:33 pm That’s all for this blog’s live coverage of what Brookings experts are saying tonight about the midterm election results. Many races for Senate, the House, and governors’ houses remain undecided. Read Bill Galston’s analysis of the results here and look for more from Elaine Kamarck, and others. Tomorrow afternoon, a special edition of the Brookings Cafeteria podcast will feature Tom Mann, Sarah Binder, and Galston discussing the elections.

11:32 pm Some media outlets report that Joni Ernst (R) has won her Senate race in Iowa, making it the sixth Republican pickup in the Senate, enough to take control of the chamber.

11:10 pm

Bush responded to 2006 thumping not by compromising but by doubling down in Iraq with the surge. What will Obama do?

— Tom Wright (@thomaswright08) November 5, 2014

11:07 pm

10:50pm report from VA SoS update (p. 275 of pdf) Warner 1,046,175 (+0.58%) Gillespie 1,031,669 http://t.co/AXf07GNae3

— Michael McDonald (@ElectProject) November 5, 2014

10:44 pm

GOP control of the #Senate all but certain. Now a look ahead to platforms, ideas, and a path forward for the new governing party in Congress

— John Hudak (@JohnJHudak) November 5, 2014

10:39 pm According to various media reports, Republicans have now gained five of six seats needed to take control of the U.S. Senate: Arkansas, Colorado, Montana, South Dakota, and West Virginia.

10:34 pm

A very tough night for Democrats pans out. Losses in places like CO don’t bode well for the party & POTUS has a challenge ahead for 2 yrs

— John Hudak (@JohnJHudak) November 5, 2014

10:23 pm

Looks like Scott Walker wins in Wisconsin. He’s my tip to win the GOP nomination in 2016 (and to lose to Hillary).

— Tom Wright (@thomaswright08) November 5, 2014

10:14 pm

And the #Senate races drag on…and so does control of the chamber… #Midterms2014

— John Hudak (@JohnJHudak) November 5, 2014

9:57 pm

Important to remember that 2014 and 2016 are very different elections. Basic demographics favor D’s in 2016 though we don’t see that tonight

— Elaine Kamarck (@EKamarck) November 5, 2014

9:49 pm

For Colorado, Larimer, Broomfield, and Jefferson counties are key: http://t.co/J1kViRY37v

— Bill Galston (@BillGalston) November 5, 2014

9:43 pm

Voters who are fed up with the economy and Washington are telling POTUS and his party “the buck stops here” tonight.

— Elaine Kamarck (@EKamarck) November 5, 2014

9:36 pm

There are tossups in Govs Sens and Marijuana races. An exciting night for pundits. An exciting night for anyone owning stock in Maalox/Tums

— John Hudak (@JohnJHudak) November 5, 2014

9:34 pm

NC overtime reminder: 26,872 outstanding mail ballots as of this morning. Reg Rs lead 40.5/32.5, some may be returned after tonight

— Michael McDonald (@ElectProject) November 5, 2014

9:32 pm

.@pmiller1693 was right: #KSSenate will be very close. Read his commentary on #FixGov http://t.co/xXMxCCC9ry #BrookingsGov

— John Hudak (@JohnJHudak) November 5, 2014

9:30 pm

Big picture of a #GOP majority = We’ll see some progress on economic issues, but many presidential vetoes elsewhere http://t.co/csyzAmF5jw

— Elaine Kamarck (@EKamarck) November 5, 2014

9:25 pm

VPAP nice map of the Virginia Senate vote by precincts. Warner looks to me he’ll make up margin in Fairfax Co. alone http://t.co/JA8cdsMHOe

— Michael McDonald (@ElectProject) November 5, 2014

9:23 pm

Shaheen wins #NHSen and #LASen likely to head to a runoff

— Elaine Kamarck (@EKamarck) November 5, 2014

So far, Dems are not showing signs of a massive fail nor any ability to hold the #Senate: translation..brew some coffee, a long night ahead

— John Hudak (@JohnJHudak) November 5, 2014

9:20 pm

@PhilipWallach Warner is ahead once you factor in where counted ballots are from: http://t.co/UHY36MbIrQ

— Matt Chingos (@chingos) November 5, 2014

9:11 pm

If a #GOP majority prevails, there are some issues (trade & tax policy, not healthcare #ACA) that have room for compromise with POTUS

— Elaine Kamarck (@EKamarck) November 5, 2014

9:10 pm

Very early results show DC’s MJ legalization initiative likely to pass overwhelmingly. @JohnJHudak & I explain policy http://t.co/VCyl9HF7N3

— Philip Wallach (@PhilipWallach) November 5, 2014

9:09 pm

To summarize all the tweets: Zero surprises so far.

— Justin Wolfers (@JustinWolfers) November 5, 2014

9:06 pm Republican Mike Rounds wins South Dakota Senate seat, a third pickup from the Democratic side.

Grimes faced an uphill battle in #KYSen race against a likely majority leader. Voters made a very strategic decision in that state

— Elaine Kamarck (@EKamarck) November 5, 2014

9:01 pm

I’m telling you, folks, it looked totally inconceivable that Webb would pull out win against Allen in VA ’06 Senate race. NoVa late counters

— Philip Wallach (@PhilipWallach) November 5, 2014

8:55 pm

Live on air in 5 with @EWTN to discuss the candidates and issues to keep an eye on during the @2014midterms.

— Elaine Kamarck (@EKamarck) November 5, 2014

Hagen with 7 point lead in NC with half of votes counted!!

— Darrell West (@darrwest) November 5, 2014

8:52 pm Sen. Shaheen retains Democratic seat in New Hampshire, defeating challenger Scott Brown.

Big win for Dems in NH Sen with Shaheen winning!

— Darrell West (@darrwest) November 5, 2014

8:48 pm

I have to say I love the drama and suspense of elections! Even if this was a $4 billion campaign!!

— Darrell West (@darrwest) November 5, 2014

8:40 pm

For people who don’t like politics, Instagram is a good option tonight. Not much politics there, mostly food and sunsets.

— Darrell West (@darrwest) November 5, 2014

8:35 pm

#ARSen http://t.co/5Tyh1DIhGw RT @JillDLawrence: RT @ThePlumLineGS Wow, Tom Cotton wins. Big win for Rs. #Arkansas

— Elaine Kamarck (@EKamarck) November 5, 2014

8:31 pm Arkansas Sen. Mark Pryor (D) losing his seat to Rep. Tom Cotton (R) is the second Republican pickup in the Senate.

Pryor loses Ark. One more step to GOP majority.

— Darrell West (@darrwest) November 5, 2014

8:30 pm

Flashing back to ’06 midterms. Learned my lesson then: late returns favor Ds in VA. If the models say Warner likely to win, I believe it.

— Philip Wallach (@PhilipWallach) November 5, 2014

8:26 pm

Looks like Florida’s medical #marijuana initiative may pass. Read more on pot policy in AK, OR and DC. #2014Midterms http://t.co/s5BLrIx7zh

— Elaine Kamarck (@EKamarck) November 5, 2014

8:14 pm

Dems happier right now: 1. Warner doing better in VA—@UpshotNYT puts him +2.2 2. Shaheen doing well +4.9 in NH. pic.twitter.com/aFgOzjBjYo

— Justin Wolfers (@JustinWolfers) November 5, 2014

8:12 pm

Scott just pulled ahead of Crist in Fla with 3/4 of vote tabulated.

— Darrell West (@darrwest) November 5, 2014

8:09 pm

Big gender gap in Georgia, too: Men: Nunn (D) 41 Perdue (R) 56 Women: Nunn 56 Perdue 41 #Election2014

— EJ Dionne (@EJDionne) November 5, 2014

8:08 pm

Shaheen wins exit poll 52-48 but we need to see the real votes. No projection yet!

— Darrell West (@darrwest) November 5, 2014

8:05 pm

Huge gender gap in North Carolina: Men: Hagan (D) 41 Tillis (R) 53 Women: Hagan 56 Tillis 39 #Election2014

— EJ Dionne (@EJDionne) November 5, 2014

8:01 pm

Young voters are still Democratic: 18-29s in House races: 55-42 D RT @PostPolls Get your exit poll crosstabs here http://t.co/acFMvNCrRD

— EJ Dionne (@EJDionne) November 5, 2014

7:53 pm

First Senate contest results: West Virginia Senate seat to Capito (Republican pickup), and Senator McConnell holds Republican seat in Kentucky.

7:21 pm

Although there is a mid-term dropoff from 2012, the 2014 electorate is not as white or Republican-friendly as 2010’s. http://t.co/NTbe41t1Ks

— EJ Dionne (@EJDionne) November 5, 2014

7:18 pm

Can’t believe @CNN just showed results of 5 votes for NH Sen with Brown getting 60%. Margin of error must be + or – 125%.

— Darrell West (@darrwest) November 5, 2014

7:15 pm

For the GA overtime scenario: only 8,359 provisional ballots cast in 2010, 4,432 counted. Could be higher if really missing 50K reg forms

— Michael McDonald (@ElectProject) November 5, 2014

7:06 pm

Let’s not forget about the governor races in the #2014midterms. The results will have great implications for 2016

— Elaine Kamarck (@EKamarck) November 5, 2014

7:00 pm

I’m on @POTUSPressPool with @MorningBriefing and Jon Decker giving the run-down on key races around the country as the polls start to close

— Elaine Kamarck (@EKamarck) November 5, 2014

6:40 pm

In next hour we’ll get “quick count” results from exit poll interviewers where polls closed, will be used to adjust within-precinct error

— Michael McDonald (@ElectProject) November 4, 2014

6:33 pm

Aside from the Senate, I’ll be watching the #WIGov and #MDGov race closely. #2014Elections

— Bill Galston (@BillGalston) November 4, 2014

6:29 pm

.@NateSilver538 Sigh. Colorado’s “exit poll” is a pre-election phone survey

— Michael McDonald (@ElectProject) November 4, 2014

Waiting for election results is like waiting to open presents. What will be in that big package???

— Darrell West (@darrwest) November 4, 2014

5:58 pm

This looks amazing: @UpshotNYT‘s live senate model. Pretty much what the networks should have been doing, but didn’t. http://t.co/QmoD4Evyeh

— Justin Wolfers (@JustinWolfers) November 4, 2014

Very cool. RT @tackettdc: Here’s the link you see live modeling of Senate races. http://t.co/6Lm07Wv9Gl

— David Wessel (@davidmwessel) November 4, 2014

I’ll be watching Kansas closely tonight – here are the three key counties: http://t.co/PDsPjsnrrd #kssen

— Bill Galston (@BillGalston) November 4, 2014

(4:32pm) Throughout this evening, Brookings Now blog will post commentary and analysis from Brookings experts here. The polls start to close nationwide at 7:00 p.m. (EST). For a rundown of which Brookings expert to follow on Twitter, see this list.

Also, read recent coverage and analysis of the 2014 midterm elections here.