Trump’s speech highlights culture wars amid growing concerns on inflation

President Trump began his first address to Congress by stirring up the culture wars. Early on and in quick succession, he bragged about making English the official language of the United States, renaming the Gulf of Mexico and Mount Denali, getting rid of critical race theory in schools, and declaring that there were only two genders in America—male and female. But he spent the most time on the cultural issue of the 2024 election—transgender rights, touting his ban on biological men playing in women’s sports and introducing a young woman who had been injured by a man playing on a women’s team. Again, toward the end of a very long speech, he returned to transgender issues, by introducing a woman whose child had been allowed to use a male name and “they/them” pronouns in school by teachers and the principal. And then he went one step further, vowing to criminalize sex changes on children and adding that he would tell American children, “You are perfect exactly the way God made you.”

Wasting no time, Trump turned to the other big reason for his 2024 win—inflation, arguing that his “drill, baby, drill” policy would get the cost of energy down, and that would help lower the cost of everything else. But on inflation, there are troubling signs. As Donald Trump stepped to the podium, he faced rising public doubts about his handling of the economy and inflation. First, the American people don’t think that he’s paying enough attention to them. In a CBS/YouGov poll released last weekend, more than 80% of voters said these issues should be a top priority for the president.

However, only 36% believed he was prioritizing the economy, and an even smaller 29% felt the same about his approach to inflation. Instead, they see him as focusing on the U.S.-Mexico border (73%), the federal workforce (69%), government spending (63%), and tariffs (68%). In the same vein, a Reuters/Ipsos poll released on the day of the speech found that only 31% of Americans approved of his handling of inflation.

This brings us to a second great public doubt. On the morning of the very day Trump delivered his speech, 25% tariffs went into effect against Canada and Mexico, and tariffs imposed on China were doubled. According to a Bloomberg/Harris poll conducted in early February, almost 60% of Americans believe that higher tariffs will lead to higher prices for consumers. In response, some Republican officials have begun to claim that Americans are willing to pay higher prices to support the president’s agenda. His pollsters do not agree, as opinion surveys show consumer reluctance to pay higher prices based on tariffs.

It was clear that Trump had heard the worries (probably from his own economists) about tariffs and inflation, which is why he said to the public, “There may be a little bit of an adjustment period—you have to bear with me. Tariffs are about making America great again. There may be a little disturbance.”

In addition to energy, Trump vowed that the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) would reduce so much waste and fraud that it too would contribute to lower prices. But DOGE is facing two sets of challenges—the legal and the operational. What will become of it is anyone’s guess. It could collapse under the weight of unfavorable lawsuits, especially since Trump, in his speech and contrary to the stance the administration has taken in its court filings, heralded Elon Musk as the DOGE leader. Just recently the Court ruled that the Merit Systems Protection Board’s decision to reinstate fired probationary employees was legal. This was followed by a decision by Judge William Alsup saying that the Office of Personnel Management—the office Musk’s team was using to issue firings of probationary employees, “…does not have any authority whatsoever under any statute in the history of the universe to hire and fire employees at another agency.”

In addition to the legal challenges, the Trump administration is finding that it has had to retract many of the claimed budgetary savings and rehire some of the terminated employees based on DOGE orders. After firing and quickly rehiring workers responsible for the safety of the nuclear arsenal, as well as those researching avian bird flu and Ebola, Trump’s team is rapidly learning that cuts have consequences and that government employees perform valued and essential functions. A missed hurricane, a rise in drug trafficking, more airline accidents, or a wave of food-borne illnesses—let alone a pandemic—will leave citizens screaming, “Where is the government?” and the president and his DOGE team will take the blame. Americans are already skeptical about DOGE and its leader, the multibillionaire Musk. According to a recent CBS News poll, “Half the country thinks this will cut their services and remove essential people. Half think it’ll save money.”

President Trump capped his anti-inflation message by calling for large tax cuts, including his favorite proposals to end taxes on tips, overtime pay, and Social Security benefits—while balancing the federal budget. He has no plan to reconcile these promises, and neither do Republicans in Congress, who will be hard-pressed even to fit the president’s proposals within the tax cut cap in their budget resolution. It is doubtful that the many voters who think the president is not focusing enough on high prices felt reassured.

Trump spent a long time on illegal immigration—second only to getting prices down. His presidency began with dramatic promises of roundups of immigrants who are criminals and hinted at even broader sweeps. He has ordered U.S. military troops to the southern border even though would-be migrants have gotten the message, and almost no one is trying to cross. But he needs resources to keep up the pace of deportations. The per day average for removal of immigrants in 2024 when Joe Biden was president was 742. The per day average for removal from January 26 (six days after Trump’s inauguration) came in a little lower at 693 per day.

This could prove embarrassing for Trump, but it could have been predicted as ICE (Immigration and Customs Enforcement) is short on money, manpower, detention beds, and airplanes to fly illegal immigrants back to their home countries. Some people are even being let back into the United States because there are no detention center beds for them. Trump may be regretting pulling the rug out from under last year’s bipartisan immigration bill, which included substantial additional resources for immigration enforcement.

There is a major tension between Trump’s immigration strategy and his budget strategy. Although he needs more funds for enforcement immediately, he has endorsed the House’s one “big, beautiful bill” proposal rather than the Senate’s two-bill strategy, which would have moved quickly on immigration and energy before moving on to the complex and time-consuming tax debate. Since it will take considerable time to work out the tax and spending cuts, the president may come to regret his choice to support the House approach.

Overall, this was not a bipartisan, “let’s come together to solve problems” kind of speech. True to his general approach to public communications, the president’s address represented the continuation of the divisive, partisan, and base-focused strategy that enabled him narrowly to win the 2024 election by 1.5 percentage points. It remains to be seen whether this approach will prove effective for governing. Since he took office, his approval rating has fallen to the high 40s, while in several surveys the share of the electorate expressing disapproval of him has risen to the low 50s, thereby erasing the positive margin with which he began his presidency. If he can get away with his tariff policies without spiking inflation, he will probably retain enough support to be effective during the current Congress. However, his political risk is that he may discover that his supposed mandate is neither as wide nor deep as he now claims. Rising inflation, especially with food, gas, and housing prices, could prove to be his Achilles’ heel and torpedo his political fortunes this year as well as his party’s control of the House in 2026.