Trump’s first 5 weeks in the polls

President Trump and Elon Musk have dominated the news with a stunning (and for many, shocking) opening that saw government jobs and, in some cases, whole government agencies slashed; a radical turn in American foreign policy regarding support for Russia and feuds with our closest allies; and a series of announcements of new tariffs. Trump has also used firing and hiring to bend the leadership of the “power” agencies of government—the Defense and Justice Departments, the FBI, and the CIA—to his will.

What Trump has not done is build popular support for his policies or broadened his personal base. Nearly all surveys show his support no higher than the roughly 50% he secured of the popular vote in 2024, and the surveys overall show a net decline in his approval ratings. A central part of Trump’s problem: For all the drama of his moves, Trump has not focused on the issue voters care about the most—the economy and, in particular, inflation. At the same time, a significant share of Republicans continues to be far more sympathetic to Ukraine than Russia, and a significant minority in the party worries that the president has exceeded his constitutional authority. There is also this: Almost all the surveys show that opponents of the president feel far more intensely about their disapproval of his tenure than his supporters do about their endorsement.

There is variance across polls, but note that only the Harvard/Harris survey (often seen as Republican-leaning) found Trump with an approval rating above 50%. As the chart below reflects, some polls report their findings for both all adults and registered voters; others report registered voters only. Because the typically Republican-leaning Rasmussen poll reports only for likely voters, it is not included in the chart below. Its rolling survey for Feb. 23 to 27 found Trump at 50% approval, 48% disapproval.

Reflecting a tendency across the surveys that found Trump’s opponents more passionate than his supporters, only 30% of the Economist/YouGov poll respondents approved of Trump strongly while 37% disapproved of him strongly.

Polling averages suggest that as Trump prepares to address Congress and the nation on March 4, his first five weeks in office have consolidated opposition and weakened his standing with the public. In the FiveThirtyEight job approval averages, he began his term on Jan. 21 with 49.7% approval and 41.5% disapproval, for a net positive rating of 8.2 points. As of Feb. 28, his approval stood at 47.9%, a decline of 1.8 points, and his disapproval at 47.2%, an increase of 5.7 points, dropping his net positive by 6.8 points. The RealClearPolitics averages show a very similar decline. Trump began with 51.5% approval and 43.0% disapproval, a net positive of 8.5 points; as of March 3, Trump stood at 48.4% to 47.8%, a net positive of just 0.6 points. These declines are what one would expect from the radical and uncompromising, base-oriented strategy Trump has followed over the past month.

In the wake of Trump’s extraordinary and angry confrontation with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on Feb. 28, it’s worth noting that surveys before the incident showed that a pro-Russia tilt was unpopular with Republicans—and even more so with Americans as a whole. For example, the Economist/YouGov poll found that 45% of Americans saw Russia as an enemy, with another 27% regarding it as unfriendly to the United States. Just 7% saw Russia as friendly to the U.S., and only 2% saw it as an ally. Strikingly, Republicans shared this negative view of Russia, even if their views were not quite as intense as those of the rest of the country: 38% saw Russia as an enemy, and 32% regarded it as unfriendly. Just 9% of Republicans saw Russia as friendly to the U.S., and 3% saw it as an ally. By contrast, 61% of Americans saw Ukraine as either friendly or an ally, including 49% of Republicans. Among all Americans, 12% saw Ukraine as unfriendly and 5% as an enemy. The views of Republicans were not very different: 19% rated Ukraine as unfriendly and 9% as an enemy.

After appealing to voters’ frustrations over rising prices and unequal economic growth during the campaign—he promised to bring down prices “on day one”—Trump’s largest challenge involves souring attitudes toward the economy and what he is or, more to the point, is not doing about it. In the 2024 exit poll, Trump enjoyed a 53% to 46% advantage on handling the economy. In the recent Post/Ipsos poll, 53% disapproved of his economic stewardship, similar to a 54% disapproval measure in Gallup’s Feb. 3 to Feb. 16 survey. CNN found 62% of respondents reported that Trump had “not gone far enough” in reducing consumer prices, and 55% asserted that he “hasn’t paid enough attention to the country’s most important problems.” In February, the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index registered its largest monthly drop since August 2021. The University of Michigan consumer survey similarly found a drop of nearly 10% in consumer sentiment between January and February. The Economist/YouGov survey pointed this way, too: Just 19% of its respondents saw the economy getting better while 43% saw it as getting worse.

Trump’s tariff policies are not popular. The Post/Ipsos survey found substantial skepticism toward the economic benefits of increased tariffs, with 59% of respondents (including almost a third of Republicans and Independents who lean toward the party) opposing Trump’s proposal to impose a 25% tariff on Mexican imports and 64% opposing a similar tariff on Canadian goods. While Trump’s proposal to increase tariffs on Chinese imports won more support—50% supported it, with 45% opposed—69% in the Post survey said the net effect of Trump’s proposed tariffs would be to increase prices. Even in the Harvard/Harris survey that produced quite positive numbers for Trump, 62% said tariffs would make prices higher and that Trump’s tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and China would do more harm than good: 49% said they would do harm, 32% said they would be helpful. The remainder said they would “neither harm nor help.”

Voters sense correctly where Trump’s priorities in the early days lie—and that they do not focus on the economy. CNN’s respondents listed immigration policy, at 28%, and the work of Elon Musk’s DOGE (12%) as the most significant actions of the Trump administration so far. Only 1% named economic policy or prices. Opposition to immigration has been Trump’s signature issue for a decade, and Americans are generally supportive of efforts to curb illegal immigration and deport undocumented immigrants. The Post’s survey found a 51% to 45% margin in support of a hypothetical federal effort to deport the estimated 11 million undocumented immigrants in the country. However, a number of specific immigration policies floated by the Trump administration were unpopular: 56% opposed ending birthright citizenship for the children of undocumented immigrants and the same proportion opposed revoking temporary protected status for immigrants from conflict-ridden countries.

While voters are largely split along partisan lines in their general view of Musk’s DOGE efforts, there are numerous warning signs. Musk’s own role is not popular. The CNN survey found that 54% saw “giving Elon Musk a prominent role in his administration” as “a bad thing,” while only 28% saw it as “a good thing.” The Economist/YouGov survey found that 57% were “very” or “somewhat” concerned that Musk was “using the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) to benefit his companies and personal interests.” Reflecting findings across other surveys, the Post poll found 63% of respondents saying they were concerned about DOGE’s access to databases of citizens’ personal information, including 37% of Republicans and Independents who lean Republican.

A number of specific actions by Musk and the DOGE team drew strong opposition. In the Post poll, 59% opposed shutting down the U.S. Agency for International Development (identified in the survey as “the U.S. agency that provides humanitarian aid in low-income countries”); only 38% supported doing so. By a similar 58 to 37% margin, they opposed “making it easier for presidents to fire longtime federal workers.”

The Economist/YouGov survey that gave Trump an overall approval advantage of 48% to 45% suggested a gap between assessments of his presidency and attitudes toward the man himself: When respondents were asked whether they “liked” or “disliked” him, only 37% said they liked him; 45% disliked him. Here again, the fervor gap favored Trump’s opponents: Only 21% said they liked him “a lot,” while 38% said they disliked him a lot.

In a careful analysis in The Washington Post, Aaron Blake argued that these signs of discontent did not yet mean that large numbers of Trump’s 2024 voters have moved away from him en masse or regret their votes outright. His rough estimate suggested that perhaps 5% of his backers had significant second thoughts (although if that figure were borne out in a future election, it would be a significant shift in a closely divided country). But Blake did point to “clear signs that what Trump is doing could alienate significant portions of his voter base.” His lengthy list included Post/Ipsos findings that “around one-quarter of self-described Trump voters disapprove of his policies on ending birthright citizenship, his decision to roll back temporary legal status for refugees, and his proposed tariffs on Canada and Mexico;” that “13% of Trump voters say Trump has gone “beyond his level of authority’ as president;” and that “11% of Trump voters said they dislike Musk’s involvement in the administration.”

Questions about Trump overreaching his authority could become more important over time—especially if major court cases go against him. The Economist/YouGov survey, for example, found that only 26% of respondents said they thought Trump had “a great deal of respect” for “the country’s democratic institutions and traditions.” The survey asked directly: “Do you think Donald Trump wants to be the king of the United States?” The answer: 49% yes, 37% no.

Economist/YouGov’s next question produced an unusual moment of concord in a divided country. When asked if Trump “should be king of the United States,” the answer was clear. Only 7% of respondents (including just 15% of Republicans) said yes. A resounding 84% said no.