Continuing political turmoil in Ukraine and tense relations between Kiev and Moscow have increased the potential for Ukraine to tumble into crisis with Russia. The crisis scenarios of greatest concern over the next six to twelve months are a major confrontation between Ukraine and Russia in Crimea and, more likely, a new dispute over the supply of Russian natural gas to Ukraine. This contingency planning memorandum does not predict such crises occurring. Rather, it examines how they might plausibly be triggered, the implications for the United States should they occur, and the steps the U.S. government might take to reduce the prospects of a crisis and, should it occur, to manage it.

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