Black and Latino voters face an affordability gap before the midterms

Affordability is a top issue for Americans and will be a key component in the 2026 midterms. Racial and ethnic minorities will be a crucial voting bloc in future elections, and given that they are some of the most vulnerable communities bearing the brunt of economic downturns, their opinions on the economy shouldn’t be overlooked. Lower-income Americans are widely understood to face tremendous challenges with daily-cost-of-living expenses, but recent reports point to middle-class Americans also struggling with affordability across every state.  

Below, Brookings scholars from the Race, Prosperity, and Inclusion Initiative (RPII) discuss the affordability crisis in America, and find a harsher reality than what President Trump has consistently described throughout his second term. From his State of the Union address claiming Americans are “thriving” to his mid-May assertion that he does not “think about Americans’ financial situation” when negotiating with Iran, we analyze the disconnect between the administration’s messaging and the lived experiences of Americans. 

Recent polling suggests that a majority of Americans (57%) believe the country is heading in the wrong direction, contradicting the Trump administration’s messaging of a “thriving nation.” Perhaps most telling, a net 76% of Americans describe current economic conditions as fair or poor.

While President Trump inherited a strong economy,  many Americans believe there is a cost-of-living crisis and are uncertain about when or how conditions will improve. Many also believe the Trump administration has deepened the affordability crisis through rising prices and its geopolitical actions, contributing to inflation outpacing wages for the first time since May 2023 and reaching 3.8% this past April. Although no single government agency controls the economy, many Americans across the political spectrum believe government should help manage the costs of daily living—from health care, medications, and groceries, to child care, housing, and utilities, and gas. These rising costs are leading many households to fall behind on bills such as rent, mortgage, car payments, and utilities. Middle- and lower-income households—and Black and Hispanic households in particular—will continue to bear the greatest burden if wages remain stagnant and economic conditions don’t improve.

Many Black communities are contending with recent federal workforce changes driven by Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) layoffs, which have had a disparate impact on the Black community, particularly Black women. Recovery will be harder for them if the economy does not improve, a pattern evidenced during the COVID-19 pandemic, when white unemployment declined while Black unemployment remained unchanged. In April 2026, Black unemployment fell to 7.3% after peaking at 8.2% in November 2025. These macroeconomic shifts are compounded by a political climate hostile to diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) policies, public sector jobs, and union protections, all areas where Black Americans have historically made gains through anti-discrimination policies and collective bargaining. The Trump administration’s rollback of anti-discrimination protections, combined with tariffs, layoffs, and firings concentrated in sectors employing large numbers of Black workers—including manufacturing, private education, and health services—threatens to set back Black economic progress significantly

The cost of this administration’s policies has been passed on to everyday Americans by corporations. Spending patterns are diverging sharply: More affluent Americans are spending more, with the top 20% of earners accounting for 59% of consumer spending. Meanwhile, middle- and lower-income Americans are cutting costs where they can, cancelling subscriptions, saving more, and turning to social services such as food banks. Food bank usage has surged since the Trump administration’s cuts to food assistance programs, including SNAP, took effect through the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA).  

Labor market shifts and stagnant wages will likely hinder economic progress in Black communities, including efforts to lower unemployment rates and expand the number of  Black-owned businesses. There is little expectation that the racial income and wealth gaps separating Black and white communities will narrow under the current administration’s policies, and data suggest the divide is more likely to grow grow. 

Without significant policy changes to raise wages, slow inflation, or expand rental, food, and health care assistance, most American families will continue to bear the consequences of a struggling economy. Trump has claimed the affordability crisis is over, but if that were true, Americans across income levels would not be experiencing the hardships the data show. Waning trust in both parties has left many Americans skeptical that either can deliver. With the midterms approaching, the party that presents a credible plan to lower the cost of daily living—and can actually execute it—will have the advantage. 

As the midterm elections near, data and public perception fall short of the “golden age of America“ President Trump promised. Despite rising gas prices and little improvement across other goods, the administration continues to tout the strength of the American economy.  

Using the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index—the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure excluding food and energy—prices rose 3.2% over the past year, indicating continued pressure on household budgets. Gas prices have been particularly damaging. Americans recently experienced the largest monthly jump in gas prices in 60 years, contributing to an overall spike in inflation in April. The president’s economic approval ratings have dropped significantly, with 64% of Americans saying rising gas prices have created financial hardship for their households.  

Experts note that the policy shocks stemming from the Trump administration’s tariff and immigration policies have made the economic outlook more volatile and weakened Americans’ spending power. The administration’s war with Iran has only added further financial strain. 

The economic well-being of the nation’s racial and ethnic minorities is especially precarious. The Trump administration’s policy agenda is exasperating racial economic inequalities, threatening the Black middle class, and devastating industries with high concentrations of Latino workers, including construction, health services, and manufacturing. Cuts to social programs are also having an outsized impact on Native American communities and other racially diverse populations, reinforcing that the lived experiences of many Americans are far from “golden.”  

The President’s own messaging suggests more economic pain may lie ahead for diverse Americans, who rely on federal programs at greater rates than white Americans. Trump has stated it is “not possible” for the U.S. to pay for Medicaid, Medicare, and day care because “We’re fighting wars.” For racial and ethnic minorities already struggling to get by, the prospect of losing access to health care and child care.  

The state of the economy will be the most important indicator of which party wins the congressional majority in the upcoming midterms. As discussed in prior posts, economic concerns drove Latinos and other racial and ethnic minorities to support President Trump at higher rates in 2024 than in his prior two campaigns. It stands to reason that continued economic hardship may lead these voters to reconsider. There is growing evidence that key segments of the electorate, including Latino small business owners, Black voters, and other constituencies, are already doing so.   

This is far from the golden age the president described in his State of the Union address. In contrast to 2024, when most voters had greater confidence in President Trump and the GOP to address the economy, recent polling suggests that public confidence in the administration’s ability to improve economic well-being is waning. The advantage Trump and the GOP once held on economic issues has largely disappeared, and the president’s approval on tariffs and inflation now trails even his overall approval ratings.  

Latinos reflect this broader trend. The economy, which drove Trump’s gains with this key voting bloc in 2024, is now pushing Latino voters toward Democrats ahead of the congressional races. A recent UnidosUS survey found that 65% of Latino voters believe President Trump and congressional Republicans are not focused enough on improving the economy, and nearly 4 in 10 Latinos say their economic situation has worsened over the past year. The survey projects that if the midterms were held today, Democrats would win the Latino vote by a wide margin—52% to 28%—though many Latino voters remain undecided. With Latino voters prioritizing inflation, jobs, and housing control of Congress may hinge on whether Latinos and other voters of color who voted for Trump in 2024 have lost their confidence in his ability to improve the economy. 

Months after President Trump boasted in his State of the Union address of a “turnaround for the ages,” citing record employment, a soaring stock market, falling crime, and housing relief, public opinion polling suggests otherwise. Some 64% of Americans disapprove of Trump’s handling of the economy, and only 37% approve of him overall. As the midterms approach, Americans’ negative views on the economy, their perception of who is to blame, will be a deciding factor this fall. 

The data tell a clear story of why public opinion on the economy has shifted so quickly. 

On jobs, Trump has claimed more Americans are working than ever—technically true in raw numbers, but misleading in context. The unemployment rate remained relatively flat, moving from 4.2% in April 2025 to 4.3% in April 2026, with a peak of 4.5% in November 2025. The total number of jobs added in 2025—181,000—was by far the lowest since the pandemic year of 2020. For Black workers, the picture is worse: Black unemployment surged to 8.2% by late 2025, a level economists associate with recessionary conditions. And the longstanding Black-white unemployment gap of roughly 2 to 1 has not improved. 

On housing, Trump has claimed the annual cost of a new mortgage is down nearly $5,000, but housing costs are actually up 1.8% year over year. Black homeownership stands at roughly 45% compared with about 74% for white households—a gap that has persisted for generations and shows no signs of narrowing under current policy. 

On money and the stock market, Trump has boasted of 53 all-time highs, but the S&P 500 has risen roughly in line with pre-inauguration analyst projections. Meanwhile, racial inequalities in access to retirement accounts persist, particularly for Latino workers. Rural communities and low-income workers face compounding economic pressures on multiple fronts: The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office found that for families earning less than $55,000 a year, losses in Medicaid and food assistance under Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill will likely outweigh any tax savings, leaving them financially worse off. For working-class families in manufacturing towns and communities of color, the “golden age” may remain out of reach. 

On violent crime, Trump has claimed credit for a historic drop in murder rates, citing National Guard deployments to Washington, D.C., Memphis, and New Orleans as proof. He is correct that last year’s murder rate saw its single largest recorded annual decline, but the causation he claims is heavily disputed. Murders and violent crime were already declining after increasing during the COVID-19 pandemic, dropping to a 20-year low in Biden’s final year in office. Trump claimed D.C. now has “almost no crime anymore,” but experts note that around 7,000 crimes have been reported in the city since the start of 2026.  

Kansas City Mayor Quinton Lucas pushed back directly, arguing that crime reductions in his city were the result of local initiatives—not White House policy—and that the Trump administration has done nothing to help local communities. Baltimore Mayor Brandon Scott similarly credited local investments in violence interrupters, social programs, and job opportunities with driving down crime rates. Decades of criminology research supports the mayors’ position: community-based violence intervention, mental health investment, and economic development in high-poverty neighborhoods have consistently outperformed military-style enforcement in producing lasting reductions in violence. Research has also found that undocumented immigrants are less likely than native-born Americans to be arrested for violent, drug, or property crimes—directly undercutting Trump’s central narrative linking immigration enforcement to public safety gains. 

Ultimately, where a person sits in the social and economic hierarchy shapes how they may experience and feel about the economy, view local programs and infrastructure, and perceive federal investments. In some ways, perception can outweigh reality—and heading into the midterms, that may matter just as much as the data.

The data and polling do not support the positive economic outlook the Trump administration has touted since the early days of his second term. This fall’s midterm results will reveal whether voters, particularly those in Black and Latino communities, translate their economic dissatisfaction into action to the ballot box.