Russia

The West has, in recent years, been mired in political turmoil and economic stagnation. Citizens have expressed declining trust in domestic institutions and mainstream political parties. Concurrently, Putin and Xi have consolidated power at home and are expanding their military and economic influence beyond their borders.

Putin is constrained resource-wise between the Ukraine and Syrian conflicts, and there is not much of an appetite among the Russian public for a more aggressive military engagement...Russians don’t want to see their young soldiers come back home in body bags.

After the end of his term, Putin could continue to rule from the shadows if Russia does not go the way of China, which just erased term limits for President Xi Jinping...It’s about installing Putin in the Russian history and his version of what Russia is as the founder of modern Russia, because that’s what he is now. And I think that’s the legacy that he’s most concerned with.