Northeast Asia

"If, somehow, Beijing in the next 30 years were to decide that the localists are right, and that Hong Kong people should at some point before 2047 be allowed to have an exercise of self-determination, and if they decided to set up a separate country, then the United States is not going to object to that. [But Washington] accepted as a reality, and still accepts as a reality, that Hong Kong is part of China.”

“The U.S. nuclear umbrella is a principal reason why North Korea does not use its conventional forces to inflict a major strike on South Korea. That in turn reduces any South Korean temptation to get its own nuclear deterrent. But no first use would mean that the U.S. would not use nuclear weapons to counter a North Korean conventional attack, and so removes them as a reason — perhaps the principal reason — for the North to show restraint.”

“I think it’s by having this cluster of [illicit] activities and abilities that has helped [North Korea] as sanctions have been applied. With the newest round of sanctions, my guess is that they’re doing the same thing: looking for ways to navigate around them.”