International Affairs

The upshot is an environment in which the leaders of the world’s most powerful democracies have to engage with an ever more challenging world, even as they’re on shaky ground at home. This can fuel doubts among our allies and overconfidence among our adversaries, and leave us all more vulnerable as a result.

The overall impression is this is a power struggle between [Sudanese generals] Hemedti, Burhan, and their institutions that would have been very difficult for any country alone or in concert to prevent, when each sees the other as an existential threat.

[Early results from Turkey's presidential election showed the] populist-nationalist narrative is effective in every country. Liberalism is structurally disadvantaged against populist autocrats. [...] It seems that in big cities there was a desire for change, but across the country, in parts of the Sunni heartlands, there was an unmistakable rejection of an Alevi candidate. [The success of a third candidate reflected that Turkish citizens did] want change. They just didn’t think Kilicdaroglu was the guy to do it.

People want to see someone who can govern Turkey during tumultuous times. Erdoğan is saying, "I’m the only guy who can steer this ship to a safe harbour in stormy weather."

This is the most tense moment I have seen in Turkish society... [The elections] are going to be about the future direction of the country and two radically different visions of where Turkey will go. And the opposition is galvanized... More than anything else, the earthquake consolidates the two sides.