China

[The Article 23 security proposal] is likely to be overwhelmingly popular in China. There is little sympathy on the mainland for the Hong Kong protests.

If Hong Kong loses preferential trade treatment, U.S. tariffs and export controls on China would apply to Hong Kong. This action-reaction sequence of China tightening its hold on Hong Kong and America responding by withdrawing preferential treatment would weaken Hong Kong's status as a global financial hub.

One lesson for the future is that American strategy and national security shouldn't depend on or assume transparency from China because it's not an empirically valid assumption to make given the nature and structure of China's domestic politics.

Whenever Trump withdraws the U.S. from international leadership, Xi announces that China will step forward...Xi has been ruthlessly opportunistic about seeking to exploit America’s withdrawal from global leadership for China’s advantage.