This paper focuses not on those predictive analytics systems that attempt to predict naturally occurring phenomenon. Rather, it draws attention to a potentially troublesome area where AI systems attempt to predict social phenomenon and behavior, particularly in the national security space. This is where caution must be advised for the policy crowd. This paper discusses human behavior in complex, dynamic, and highly uncertain systems. Using AI to predict ever more complex social phenomena, and then using those predictions as grounds for recommendations to senior leaders in national security, will become increasingly risky if we do not take stock of how these systems are built and the “knowledge” that they produce. Senior leaders and decisionmakers may place too much reliance on these estimations without understanding their limitations.
The Russians have effectively already declared war quite a long time ago in the information sphere. They’ve been trying to prove that they are a major cyber force — they want to create a wartime scenario so then they can sit down and agree some kind of truce with us.
[Putin] wants to have a relationship that is essentially a managed confrontation right now with the United States because Putin is mobilizing at home ahead of his own election season. And he's trying to explain to the Russian people why he, Vladimir Putin, should stay in power indefinitely. And it's because there's an external adversary who is up. That's the United States in their depiction. So if we kind of disappeared from the scene and all was normal and we were having a nonconfrontational relationship, it would be very difficult to justify the mobilization that requires keeping people like Alexei Navalny in jail and generally having a rather militarized posture in the international arena.