This paper explores the macroeconomic consequences of changes in fiscal policy in the United States and Japan, for countries in the Asia-Pacific region. The basis of the study is the McKibbin-Sachs Global model that now includes models for Korea, Australia and Japan. It is shown that the response of global financial markets is important in determining the short run impact and the dynamics of adjustment of countries in the Asia-Pacific region when macroeconomic policies change in Japan and the United States. It is also shown that whether a policy is anticipated or not has important consequences for the adjustment process. Indeed in the short run GDP may rise or fall in response to a change in fiscal policy depending on the announcement effect of the policy change.
[John Bolton’s statement that the North Koreans “have not lived up to the commitments” made in Singapore] totally cuts Secretary of State Pompeo and the special representative, Steve Biegun, at the knees. What is the incentive for North Korea to actually talk about the meat-and-potatoes of denuclearization with the special representative and with the secretary of state if the national security adviser has said nothing is happening so we have to go straight to the top?