Cities across America are undergoing massive demographic change, and Philadelphia is no exception. Understanding this change, and effectively managing it, will be key to our national progress and prosperity in this decade and beyond.
A new report from the Brookings Institution, “The State of Metropolitan America,” describes a nation that has grown larger, more diverse, more suburban, and more educated in the first decade of this century. These characteristics offer the potential for a tremendous advantage among industrialized nations as the global economy becomes more integrated and more competitive.
The Philadelphia region, for instance, is now home to 92 colleges and universities – more than the renowned concentration of higher education institutions in the Boston area. In our research on the demographic transformation of the nation, we refer to Philadelphia as a “skilled anchor” – one of 19 metro areas, including Baltimore, Rochester, N.Y., and Boston, that have made a transition from manufacturing and shipping to service-based economies. Medical and educational institutions have often driven this transformation, along with specialized manufacturing.
Skilled anchors face challenges, however, due to other trends. While 32 percent of Philadelphia area residents over the age of 25 hold bachelor’s degrees, only 21 percent of residents of the city itself have been educated beyond high school.
That is cause for concern, especially as baby boomers begin to retire – most notably in the suburbs, where more than 40 percent of the residents are boomers and seniors. The young people who will take their place in the workforce are not completing college education at the same rate as their predecessors. This is problematic considering that median household income declined during the 2000s, and higher education is closely correlated with higher wages.
Meeting the region’s future workforce challenges – that is, connecting residents to high-quality jobs in the education, medicine, life-sciences, and pharmaceutical sectors – will require education policies that prepare all children for successful postsecondary education, so they can build on the economic momentum of the retiring baby boomers.
As part of the national Achieving the Dream Initiative, several foundations are working together to help community colleges in Michigan, Ohio, and Indiana improve completion rates for minority and low-income students who are most at risk of dropping out and not getting the skills and credentials they need to succeed in the workforce.
Other demographic trends represent challenges as well as opportunities. The Philadelphia region’s foreign-born population grew by 30 percent in the 2000s, albeit from a relatively small base. Efforts to incorporate immigrants into the mainstream of economic and civic life – such as Philadelphia’s language-access policy, its one-stop education office, and the region’s emerging Metropolitan Caucus – are all praiseworthy. But more is required.
At the same time, while solutions must be built from the ground up, the Philadelphia region can’t go it alone. The federal government can’t wait for megacities such as Philadelphia to work out the massive transformation under way by themselves. There are macro-level federal responses to these trends that could and should emanate from Washington.
Among them are comprehensive immigration reform that includes explicit means for improving the integration of new Americans into our society and economy; a revamping of transportation and housing policy that reduces energy-inefficient sprawl, accommodates seniors, and provides access to employment centers; programs to increase postsecondary education for our emerging workforce; and a redoubling of efforts to make work pay for working families, such as the Earned Income Tax Credit.
Over the past decade, between two recessions, Philadelphia has made much progress. Today, the region must capitalize on its hard-earned gains and address emerging challenges with similar conviction.
Philadelphia and America are changing in front of our eyes. Public policy decisions crucial to our health, prosperity, and security need to be informed by what’s happening now. We cannot afford to look for our future in the rearview mirror.
[On the politics of climate change] The politics of adaptation and emission control are very different.