The Hutchins Center Fiscal Impact Measure shows how much local, state, and federal tax and spending policy adds to or subtracts from overall economic growth, and provides a near-term forecast of fiscal policies’ effects on economic activity.
FEDERAL, STATE AND LOCAL FISCAL POLICY AND THE ECONOMY
By Eli Asdourian, Nasiha Salwati, Louise Sheiner, and Lorae Stojanovic
Fiscal policy had no effect on U.S. GDP growth in the first quarter of 2023, the Hutchins Center Fiscal Impact Measure (FIM) shows. The FIM translates changes in taxes and spending at federal, state, and local levels into changes in aggregate demand, illustrating the effect of fiscal policy on real GDP growth. GDP increased at an annual rate of 1.3% in the first quarter of 2023, according to the government’s latest estimate.
The neutral effect of fiscal policy on GDP reflected a 1 percentage point drag from the waning effects of pandemic transfers programs, offset by an increase in purchases by federal, state, and local governments, which raised the FIM by 0.6 percentage point, and a decline in tax collections, which raised it by 0.4 percentage point.
As the FIM shows, fiscal policy provided significant support to economic growth when large swaths of the economy were shut down in 2020 during the COVID-19 pandemic. The FIM turned negative in the second quarter of 2021 as fiscal support waned. The negative impulse from fiscal policy diminished over time and is now neutral.
We expect the FIM to be slightly negative through the first quarter of 2024 and then roughly neutral thereafter. This projection assumes no changes in tax and spending legislation over the forecast period. Any agreement between the White House and Congress to restrain discretionary spending over the next few years in return for raising the debt limit would likely have very modest, negative effects on the FIM over the next two years.
The FIM tracks the influence of fiscal policy on GDP growth rates. It measures only the direct impacts of fiscal policy on demand (including both discretionary fiscal policy and automatic stabilizers). It doesn’t include fiscal multipliers nor any potential effects of fiscal policy on aggregate supply. For an analysis that includes multipliers, as well as a more detailed breakdown of the components of the FIM, read our explainer on how pandemic-era fiscal policy affects the level of GDP, which includes a comparison of actual GDP with our estimate of what GDP might have been had fiscal policy failed to respond to the pandemic.»
For more on the FIM, see our methodology ». You can also read our Guide to the FIM ».
Hutchins Center Fiscal Impact Measure Contribution of Fiscal Policy to Real GDP Growth Components of Fiscal Policy Contribution to Real GDP Growth
- Four-quarter moving average
- Quarterly fiscal impact
- Federal spending on goods and services
- State and local spending on goods and services
- Taxes and benefit programs
By Eli Asdourian, Nasiha Salwati, Louise Sheiner, and Lorae Stojanovic
Fiscal policy had no effect on U.S. GDP growth in the first quarter of 2023, the Hutchins Center Fiscal Impact Measure (FIM) shows. The FIM translates changes in taxes and spending at federal, state, and local levels into changes in aggregate demand, illustrating the effect of fiscal policy on real GDP growth. GDP increased at an annual rate of 1.3% in the first quarter of 2023, according to the government’s latest estimate.
The neutral effect of fiscal policy on GDP reflected a 1 percentage point drag from the waning effects of pandemic transfers programs, offset by an increase in purchases by federal, state, and local governments, which raised the FIM by 0.6 percentage point, and a decline in tax collections, which raised it by 0.4 percentage point.
As the FIM shows, fiscal policy provided significant support to economic growth when large swaths of the economy were shut down in 2020 during the COVID-19 pandemic. The FIM turned negative in the second quarter of 2021 as fiscal support waned. The negative impulse from fiscal policy diminished over time and is now neutral.
We expect the FIM to be slightly negative through the first quarter of 2024 and then roughly neutral thereafter. This projection assumes no changes in tax and spending legislation over the forecast period. Any agreement between the White House and Congress to restrain discretionary spending over the next few years in return for raising the debt limit would likely have very modest, negative effects on the FIM over the next two years.
The FIM tracks the influence of fiscal policy on GDP growth rates. It measures only the direct impacts of fiscal policy on demand (including both discretionary fiscal policy and automatic stabilizers). It doesn’t include fiscal multipliers nor any potential effects of fiscal policy on aggregate supply. For an analysis that includes multipliers, as well as a more detailed breakdown of the components of the FIM, read our explainer on how pandemic-era fiscal policy affects the level of GDP, which includes a comparison of actual GDP with our estimate of what GDP might have been had fiscal policy failed to respond to the pandemic.»
For more on the FIM, see our methodology ». You can also read our Guide to the FIM ».
