Thinking the unthinkable: War on the Korean Peninsula
Past Event
Revisiting North Korea's strategic intentions

Revisiting North Korea's strategic intentions

Assessing the costs of a military conflict on the Korean Peninsula
The possibility of a U.S. military strike against North Korea to prevent Pyongyang from acquiring the capability to hit the United States with a nuclear weapon has stimulated debates about North Korea’s intentions. Is Kim Jong-un’s primary goal deterrence against U.S. invasion? Or does he have a much more offensive agenda, such as the unification of the Korean Peninsula through the use of force? Analysis of North Korea’s intentions has profound implications for what policy responses are required to thwart the regime’s ambitions and get ahead of its tactical maneuvers designed to reach those goals. Given the range of views, policy analysis and recommendations should take into account all possibilities and scenarios. What remains incontrovertible in any analysis is the disastrous costs of a military conflict on the Korean Peninsula.
On March 13, the Center for East Asia Policy Studies at Brookings hosted leading U.S. experts to explore the possibility of an offensive-minded North Korea and its policy implications, and assess the humanitarian, economic, political, and logistical costs of a military conflict on the Korean peninsula. Following each session, panelists took questions from the audience.
Agenda
Welcome remarks
Revisiting North Korea's strategic intentions
Abraham Denmark
Director, Asia Program and Senior Fellow, Kissinger Institute on China and the United States - Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars
Sue Mi Terry
Director of the Hyundai Motor-Korea Foundation Center for Korean History and Public Policy - Wilson Center
Assessing the costs of a military conflict on the Korean Peninsula
Ryan Hass
Senior Fellow - Foreign Policy, Center for East Asia Policy Studies, John L. Thornton China Center
The Michael H. Armacost Chair
Chen-Fu and Cecilia Yen Koo Chair in Taiwan Studies
Nonresident Fellow, Paul Tsai China Center, Yale Law School
Mara Karlin
Former Brookings Expert
Laura Rosenberger
Special Assistant to the President and Senior Director for China and Taiwan - White House National Security Council
Scott Seaman
Director, Asia - Eurasia Group
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