The International Relations of the Korean Peninsula: Can Diplomacy Succeed? What if Diplomacy Fails?

The Center for Northeast Asian Policy Studies (CNAPS) at the Brookings Institution will convene its annual spring conference on Wednesday, April 28. Two expert panels will discuss the North Korean nuclear crisis and possible outcomes of the current stand-off.

Can the United States reach an agreement on nuclear weapons with North Korea that can be called “complete, verifiable, and irreversible dismantlement” of the nuclear program? If so, what would this agreement look like, and what steps would the two sides and others need to take to reach it?

If an agreement is not possible, especially in the near term, what would Northeast Asia be like if North Korea dropped whatever ambiguity is left concerning its nuclear status? Would it engage in nuclear coercion? Would Japan go nuclear? How would South Korea adjust?