The arc of insecurity in the Horn of Africa and new breakthroughs

Long battered by dangerous wars, militancy, and humanitarian catastrophes — including an ongoing hunger crisis — the Horn of Africa seems to be experiencing significant security breakthroughs. After two years of intense fighting, the conflict between the Tigray and Ethiopian government forces seems close to being resolved, with an important ceasefire and negotiated peace deal reached. Its implementation will be critical for lasting peace and recovery in Ethiopia. In Somalia, the new government of President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud has prioritized taking on al-Shabab, capitalizing on local anti-Shabab clan militia uprisings. But al-Shabab remains entrenched, and many other security challenges remain. In Kenya, the new government of President William Ruto will become a strong factor in the Horn’s security. Yet the regional environment remains complex, with actors such as Eritrea, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey capable of either anchoring or destabilizing security gains. Moreover, the arc of insecurity in East Africa runs long and deep into southern Tanzania and Mozambique, two of Africa’s many areas where jihadi insurgencies are far from resolved.

On December 6, the Brookings Initiative on Nonstate Armed Actors and the Africa Security Initiative discussed the various security challenges affecting the Horn and explored the region’s current breakthroughs and future opportunities.

After their remarks, panelists took questions from the audience. Viewers submitted questions via email to events@brookings.edu or Twitter using #HornofAfrica.