China 2049: Economic challenges of a rising global power

In 2012, the Chinese government announced two centennial goals. The first was to double the 2010 GDP and per capita income for both urban and rural residents by 2021. The second was to build China into a fully developed country by 2049, the year when the People’s Republic of China (PRC) celebrates its centenary. Indeed, China has ascended successfully from one of the world’s poorest economies in 1978 to a high middle-income economy in 2019. However, there are greater uncertainties surrounding the path to the second centennial goal. How might rising domestic challenges such as an aging population, automation and AI, and financial risks impact China’s growth and stability? How might escalating economic tensions at home and abroad and de-globalization affect the international environment for China’s development? What role might China be able to play in managing tensions, reforming the global economic order, and developing nodes of cooperation in the face of global challenges such as climate change and financial instability?

On January 10, the John L. Thornton China Center at Brookings convened a panel of experts from the U.S. and China to discuss the emerging economic challenges for China as it sets out to achieve its Centennial Goals over the coming three decades. The event previews “China 2049: Economic challenges of a rising global power,” a forthcoming book by David Dollar, Yiping Huang, and Yang Yao from the Brookings Press. The volume is the product of a joint research project involving economists from Peking University and Brookings.