[Germany's prevarications stem from a domestic politics that is yet to grasp 21st-century realities. It can't be blamed on the small number of explicitly pro-Russian elements in the country, but rather a cognitive dissonance among mainstream politicians, making them] unwilling to look reality in the face because it would force them to reconsider their position. [When it comes to Ukraine... that dissonance plays out in Germany's decision to help fund a field hospital in Ukraine while other allies provide arms]. I don't know how we could say more obviously that we expect there to be bloodshed, but then we're not going to do anything about it except co-finance an Estonian field hospital.
If there is Russian military aggression, it will exemplify the degree to which [Germany is] dependent on Russian gas and how vulnerable [Germany is] to it being used as a political weapon. [... As a result, Germany is now facing an energy trilemma... as it needs to balance environmental, social impact and security factors]. We have wildly underestimated the security part of it... A large swath of German policy makers want to believe that the Russians are reliable suppliers, which they have been for decades. But now, unfortunately, there's a lot of evidence to the contrary.