What is going on in France?

Tara Varma:
On June 10, French President Emmanuel Macron abruptly decided to dissolve the National Assembly—the French parliament—after disastrous results for his party. This led to snap parliamentary elections in two rounds, on June 30 and July 7, 2024.

The results indicated that France is split into three parts: Marine Le Pen’s far-right Rassemblement National (RN), now the first political force in France; Macron’s centrist Renaissance party; and finally, a tactical coalition between the left and the far left.

Macron then nominated Barnier as prime minister—to general disbelief, as Barnier’s small center-right party (Les Républicains) had garnered just 48 seats in the 2024 snap elections. Faced with a parliament offering no clear majority, Barnier controversially asked for and then received the RN’s support. As prime minister, his greatest imminent challenge was to pass the budget, as required by the constitution and European law. Le Pen made many demands, most of which Barnier agreed to. But then her party voted together with the left and the far left to oust the government via a motion of no confidence. Barnier resigned, and his government was gone—after just three months in power, preceded by 51 days of coalition negotiations in the summer.

Tara Varma:
There is no deadline in the French Constitution for the president to nominate a new prime minister and government, but Macron announced on December 5 that he wants a new government to be formed soon. He invited all political parties he deemed to be part of the republican arc—hence excluding the RN and the far-left La France Insoumise—to the Élysée Palace on December 10. He has asked them to work together to form a government of national interest and to promise not to table any more no-confidence motions. Macron also insisted—against his opponents on the far left and the far right who have been calling on him to resign—that he will stay until the end of his term in 2027.

France, unlike most other European Union (EU) member states, is not used to coalition building and parliamentary negotiations, as they are generally interpreted as ceding ground to your opponents. The Constitution of 1958, which rang in the Fifth Republic, was designed by then-President Charles de Gaulle and his advisor (and drafter of the constitution) Michel Debré precisely to overcome the political instability that had undermined the Third and Fourth French Republics. Hence, the French Constitution’s insistence on majoritarian rule. At the time, however, there were strong parties both on the right and left who regularly alternated in wielding the majority in parliament.

The three-way split that resulted from the July elections is unprecedented in the Fifth Republic. It will require French lawmakers to fundamentally change how they conduct their politics.

Tara Varma:
Le Pen’s agenda is best summarized as the “de-demonization” (dédiabolisation in French) of her party. She changed its name from Front National to Rassemblement National, making it sound less militant. She fired her father (a known antisemite and racist) from the RN’s leadership and commented that he committed “political suicide” when he repeatedly called the Holocaust “a detail of history.”

Her normalization of the RN has succeeded inasmuch as the RN is France’s strongest political party today. Still, its history and roots remain very present. One of the reasons why RN came in third in the summer snap elections was because the party’s only policy proposal was banning dual citizens from certain strategic positions inside the government, thus demonstrating that nativism is still very much at the core of its ideology.

Speculation is rife as to why Le Pen suddenly decided to abandon Barnier. One hypothesis is that the RN remains, at its heart, an insurgent party, unfit and unwilling to govern. Another is that her trial over the alleged embezzlement of EU funds is coming up in March 2025, and the courts might rule her ineligible to compete in elections. In that case, the RN would need another candidate for the next French presidential election in 2027. Jordan Bardella is RN’s heir apparent, and he is very popular with younger voters. The RN’s plan was for him to become prime minister, while Le Pen focused on the presidency. The current turmoil and her trial will put that plan to the test.

Tara Varma:
2024 was a year of significant elections worldwide, and we saw large levels of turnout everywhere, with people proudly exercising their right to vote. We also saw the defeat of incumbent parties in many places: France, Romania, the U.K., the United States, and others. Even India’s ruling party lost its parliamentary majority and became reliant on coalition partners to govern. Citizens expressed their discontent democratically where they could.

The electoral shock due to the vote of no confidence, and with the RN’s ascendency in the backdrop, has been transformational. France’s political leaders now have no choice but to put their country first and form a coalition government. Together, they must find ways to pass the budget and work on urgent issues like social security, infrastructure, and the energy transition. Should they decide to put political alliances first, France will undergo a phase of staunch political instability.

As the president, Macron remains the guarantor of the country’s institutions and stability. He had vowed to announce the name of the new prime minister by Friday, December 13, 2024, and he did. François Bayrou, a longtime Macron supporter and president of centrist party Modem, was nominated prime minister of France. Bayrou’s name had been circulating as a potential nominee since the beginning of the week. He is a fixture of French politics and had hoped to be nominated prime minister ever since Macron won the presidential election in 2017. He will now have to deliver a government that is representative of all the different political forces—with the exception of the far left and far right. Following Bayrou’s nomination, Bardella declared that RN wouldn’t censor the government “a priori.”

As for the rest of the continent, we know that there is an abundance of disinformation, particularly coming from Russia. Romania’s recent political upheaval, in which the Supreme Court annulled an election that had been won by a far-right party over allegations of election interference, is the most recent example. Europe’s rivals have clearly stated their willingness to divide and destabilize it. We have seen assassination attempts, election interference, and information manipulation throughout several of this year’s elections. France has also been a target of these interferences, which the government has sought to publicize to raise awareness.

Building resilience as a whole-of-society effort, through media literacy, human and social connections, and organizing at the local level will be essential to ensure that democracies are delivering for all.

Tara Varma:
Inviting Trump to the reopening of Notre Dame feels very consistent with Macron’s foreign policy playbook. Macron believes that personal relationships are key to conducting foreign policy, especially at a time of great changes on the international stage, when decisionmakers need to be able to act. Macron is one of the very few incumbent European leaders who already interacted with Trump during the latter’s first term, and he will try to capitalize on his familiarity with the incoming U.S. president.

Macron’s decision to host a trilateral meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Trump was also very much on brand. Macron has portrayed himself as the leader of a new, stronger Europe and has called for the continent to be more autonomous when it comes to its security and defense. Macron is aware of Trump’s ambivalence toward allies and alliances, and he would be keen to furnish a European offer in which Europe takes on a greater share of the burden of its own security and of Ukraine’s future in Europe—all while maintaining a good relationship with the United States. Frontline countries in Europe’s north and east will need to be part of those future security discussions, which will also be tied to trade and the economy—Trump’s declared priorities. Trump has threatened European allies with tariffs and dangled the possibility of ending the U.S. security guarantee. France has a responsibility, alongside other EU member states, to present a united front to what will be a more defiant and divisive United States.