Is It 1958 or 1968? Three Notes on the Longevity of the Revived Bretton Woods System

Michael Dooley and

MD

Michael Dooley University of California, Santa Cruz

Peter Garber

PG

Peter Garber Deutsche Bank

Barry Eichengreen and

Barry Eichengreen Professor - University of California, Berkeley

Jeffrey Frankel

JF

Jeffrey Frankel

Here we further develop our argument in the form of three notes addressing
particular issues that have cropped up in critiques of the Revived Bretton
Woods view. These notes both respond to the critiques and continue to
expand our ideas. The first note explains how we think about what is driving
capital flows to the United States and keeping interest rates low. We view
the fact of unusually low long-term real interest rates for this stage of the
business cycle as a direct challenge to those who, exaggerating the importance
of rumors about central bank reserve management practices, claim
that the end is near