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Index of Presidential Election Indicators

Tracking the trends shaping the 2024 election

October 30, 2024

  • According to Real Clear Politics polling, Trump leads Harris in swing states. On October 26, Trump surpassed Harris in Real Clear Politics’ poll average.
  • Consumer sentiment increased in September 2024.
  • The number of encounters at the southwest border to date in 2024 has already outpaced total number of encounters from 2021. 
election indicators graphic illustration

We’ve created the Index of Presidential Election Indicators to track leading economic indicators, voter opinion on the candidates, and the status of key issues like immigration. Using data from RealClearPolitics, YouGov, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, and U.S. Customs and Border Protection, we present favorability ratings for Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, key economic performance indicators, and the latest information on immigration enforcement.

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Polling

The latest voter trends on presidential candidate favorability, polling averages, and where candidates stand in each swing state.  

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Economy

An overview of current economic indicators affecting voter views on the state of the economy. 

+2.4% CPI-U 12-month percent change | September 2024
4.1% Unemployment rate | September 2024
3.0% GDP percent change from preceding period | Q2 2024
70.1% Consumer sentiment | September 2024
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Immigration

Immigration is a top issue for voters, but are they truly informed on the matter?

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Author

Bill Galston
William A. Galston Ezra K. Zilkha Chair and Senior Fellow - Governance Studies, Center for Effective Public Management

More On
Program

Governance Studies

Region

U.S. States and Territories

Center

Center for Effective Public Management

Project

Election ’24: Issues at Stake