How rural economic woes imperil GOP majorities

Of all the unexpected developments in the 2026 midterm election, Republican weakness in the country’s heartland may be the most surprising. In 2024, President Trump carried Ohio by 11 points, Iowa by 13, Kansas by 16, and Nebraska by 20. Now, incumbent Sen. Jon Husted (R-Ohio) is trailing former Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) by 3 points in Ohio while Republican Senate candidates are locked in dead heat races in Iowa, Kansas, and Nebraska.

While the competitiveness of these races was hard to predict even six months ago, it is easy to explain now: President Trump’s policies have put pressure on the heartland’s agricultural sector, and producers understand the link between these policies and the difficulties they are experiencing. People there increasingly think Trump has not delivered on his 2024 campaign promises to improve the rural economy.

Their woes began in April 2025, when the president imposed large tariffs on imports from just about every country on earth. China retaliated by halting its purchases of U.S. soybeans, one of the top two crops in the Midwest. The cutoff lasted until late October 2025, when an agreement between the two countries committed the Chinese to resume soybean imports, although in lower amounts than before the trade war. But the damage was done: Compared to 2024, Chinese purchases of U.S. soybeans fell by 73% in 2025, and preliminary results indicate only a partial recovery in 2026. And the news is not getting any better. In the most recent round of U.S.-China trade talks, soybeans were excluded from the list of agricultural products scheduled for relief from Chinese tariffs.

The trade war has affected the entire range of crops. Chinese imports of American wheat and corn nearly ended in 2025, and beef imports fell by 59%. Overall, the rupture of trade relations between the United States and China reduced agricultural exports by nearly $15 billion between March 2025 and February 2026—about $1.2 billion each in Iowa and Illinois, with losses in other Midwestern states such as Kansas, Nebraska, Minnesota, Missouri, Indiana, and Ohio ranging from roughly $500 million to $900 million.

Just as the October 2025 U.S.-China agreement began to ease the pressure on American farmers, the war with Iran inflicted another round of damage. As prices for crude oil soared, the agricultural sector suffered disproportionately. The average cost of a gallon of regular gasoline rose in 2026 from $2.91 to $4.36 between February and October, hitting rural residents, not all of whom are farmers but who drive longer distances than other Americans, especially hard. Worse, diesel fuel, which powers more than 75% of most agricultural equipment, soared during this period from $3.71 to $6.20. The price of fertilizer also rose across the board, with urea (which the Middle East exports in large quantities) the hardest hit. This year, 70% of American farmers report that they can no longer afford as much fertilizer as they need.

Finally, farmers need short-term loans to finance annual operations, and long-term loans to purchase land and equipment. As agricultural debt continues its relentless rise, the surge in interest rates has hit farm balance sheets hard. Compared to 2024, farm bankruptcies in 2025 rose by 46%, and analysts predict that the pace of bankruptcies will accelerate further in 2026 and 2027.

Against this backdrop of declining agricultural exports, rising input costs for farm operations, and increasing borrowing costs, it is not surprising that the mood of farmers and rural communities is souring. In the summer of 2025, 74% of farmers surveyed thought that the country was on the right track. By the fall of 2026, the “right track” share had fallen to 48%, while the share of farmers who thought the country was on the wrong track had doubled from 26% to 52%.

Recent survey research suggests that 57% of rural voters disapprove of President Trump’s economic policies. Still, rural voters have reasons—including their disapproval of Democrats’ stances on social issues—not to switch their support to Democratic candidates. Some will, of course. But it seems more likely that rural voters who are disappointed with the president’s performance will choose to stay home this November. If so, the competition for Senate seats in the farm belt will remain close right up to Election Day.

A Democrat last won a Senate race in Iowa in 2008; Nebraska, in 2006; and Kansas, in 1932. If discontented rural Republicans stay home this November, these trends could be disrupted, with Democrats or, in Nebraska’s case, an independent making history. If these Republicans go to the polls, however reluctantly, the party’s candidates will probably prevail, but their reduced margins of victory could persuade Democratic Party leaders to increase their rural investment in 2028.